Mixed Signals in New Home Construction Data

While this technically signals some cooling in new construction potential, it wasn’t much more of a drop than investors expected.  Moreover, there has been a gradual cooling trend intact for more than 2 years.  That’s not as ominous as it sounds considering construction activity is still higher than it was in mid-2019.   Housing starts, which measure groundbreakings for new home construction, actually came in just slightly higher than forecasts, barely declining month-over-month.  Here too, there is a general cooling trend over the past few years, but a flatter trend over the past few months. Housing completions are a different story.  They never experienced the same correction as starts and permits.  They may have dropped from last month’s high (highest level since 2007), but completions have been in a decisive uptrend since the middle of 2023 and a broad uptrend since 2011.  Here’s the bigger-picture context for construction: