Without Major Data, Bonds Remain Quiet

While it makes riveting analysis a challenge, it’s not necessarily a bad thing for the bond market to be incredibly boring sideways right now.  After all, we’ve had a stable run of rates near their longer-term lows for several weeks.  Volatility could creep back in with the upcoming economic reports, but today, it was nowhere to be found.  Bonds started slightly stronger and drifted slightly weaker throughout the session with MBS not even an eighth of a point away from yesterday’s latest levels for the entirety.  Data relevance increases sharply on Thursday with Jobless Claims and quarterly PCE (via GDP).  

Econ Data / Events

Case Shiller Home Prices

up 6.5% y/y vs 6.0% f’cast
up 0.6% in June

FHFA Home Prices

down 0.1% in June vs +0.2% f’cast
up 5.1% y/y vs 5.3% f’cast

Consumer Confidence

103.3 vs 100.7 f’cast, 101.9 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:19 AM Mostly flat overnight with quick 2-way volatility in the first 2 hours.  10yr unchanged at 3.826.  MBS unchanged.

01:03 PM No reaction to uneventful 5yr auction.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1bp at 3.836.

01:41 PM Weakest levels.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.2 bps at 3.84