Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally

MBS ended Friday right about where they ended Thursday, and if that’s all you got to know about the future on Thursday afternoon, it would have been good news. But as it stands, it could be a bit frustrating considering it means about 3/8ths of a point of weakness from AM levels. Moreover, there was no glaringly obvious motivation for the reversal, nor was there a similar reversal in equities. That leaves us to consider factors like traders moving to sidelines heading into the weekend and mid day headlines regarding Vietnam lowering tariffs on the U.S. (a proof of concept for de-escalation of trade war themes). MBS underperformance can be seen as a combination of Treasuries being the preferred safe haven for flights to safety, and also the only beneficiary of the Fed’s QT tapering plans. Today’s video dives deeper into these considerations, but the takeaway is that the week was a win overall, and that anything can change quickly when the market is taking cues from tariff-driven economic speculation.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

219k vs 225k f’cast, 225k prev

Continued Claims

1.903m vs 1.860m f’cast, 1.847m prev

ISM Services

50.8 vs 53.0 f’cast, 53.5 prev

ISM Employment

46.2 vs 53.9 prev

ISM Prices

60.9 vs 62.6 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:26 AM Sharply stronger overnight.  MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 13.5bps at 3.895

09:10 AM Losing some more ground now.  MBS up only a quarter point and 10yr down 9.9bps at 3.93 (up from lows of 3.87)

01:46 PM weakest levels for Treasuries with 10s down only 5.2bps at 3.977.  MBS at the weakest liquid levels of the day, still up roughly an eighth of a point, but down a quarter from highs. 

04:40 PM Gains completely erased.  MBS down 1 tick (0.03). 10yr still slightly stronger, at 3.996, but well off the lows.