Why Jobless Claims Data Moved Markets More Than Normal

Weekly jobless claims data is far from irrelevant, but also almost always a forgettable ingredient in the recipe for serious bond market movement.  There are scattered exceptions to that rule and today was a reminder.  Despite a mere 233k vs 240k beat, the bond market reacted the data as if it were one of the 4-5 top tier economic reports that account for the biggest average reactions. In seeking to reconcile that, we can consider the defensiveness priced into the market as a result of last week’s labor market data.  With today’s claims, we have the 2nd report of the week suggesting the labor market outlook may not be bleak enough to warrant much panic. In addition to all of the above data-related considerations, it has also been a busy week for corporate bond issuance which has added further pressure at times.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

233k vs 240k f’cast, 250k prev

Continued Claims

1875k vs 1870k f’cast, 1869k prev

Market Movement Recap

10:31 AM Slightly stronger overnight, then sharply weaker after jobless claims data.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 5bps at 3.999

01:16 PM Slightly into the 30yr bond auction, but now bouncing back with MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.8bps at 3.998. 

02:42 PM Weakest levels just after 2pm and another bounce.  MBS and Treasuries right in line with previous update.