What’s Up With ‘Secret’ Jobs Revisions?

When it was limited to social media, it was one thing, but alarming headlines regarding seemingly under-reported labor market revisions hit the mainstream today.  Given the big role or the labor market in the rate world these days, that seems highly relevant at first glance.  But as was the case the last time the QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages) was revised, there was plenty of sound and fury with very little significance for markets.  The revision will be out on Wednesday morning.  It isn’t a new jobs number, and the market already expects a negative revision between 600k and 1m for the 12 months ending March 2024.  Why all the focus on this topic (which pertains to data that’s almost 6 months old)?  Because it was a very boring, low-volume, uninspired day for bonds despite incidental gains.

Econ Data / Events

Leading Indicators

-0.6 vs -0.3 f’cast, -0.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:04 AM

Roughly unchanged overnight but gaining ground early.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 3.837

01:05 PM

Best levels of the day.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 5.2bps at 3.82

03:34 PM

sideways at best levels.  No change from the last update and minimal movement since then.