Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market and bonds were on a shortened schedule today due to the federal day of mourning for Jimmy Carter.  As such, volume and volatility were in short supply. Still, overnight market movement allowed the average lender to offer a microscopic improvement versus yesterday. Tomorrow (Friday, Jan 9th) is a different story.  The big jobs report comes out at 8:30am ET. Bonds routinely react to this report more than any other scheduled monthly data.  In other words, there is much higher potential for volatility tomorrow as that reaction plays out. As always, there is no way to know which direction things will move in response to economic data until we actually have the data in hand.  As always, it’s not whether the data is higher or lower than last time, but rather, how it comes in compared to the median forecast. In this case, the median forecast for job creation is 160k, much lower than last month’s 227k.  If jobs were to come in under 100k, rates would likely improve.  If the number is over 200k, rates would likely rise. The unemployment rate is also a consideration.  It’s expected at 4.2%. Higher is better for rates, and vice versa.

No Data, No Volatility

Bonds were only open for half the day due to the national day of mourning for Jimmy Carter.  Overnight markets made for a slightly stronger start and those gains slowly eroded throughout the day.  MBS closed at perfectly unchanged levels and 10yr yields were a hair lower as Treasuries continue “healing” after this week’s auction cycle.  Friday morning brings the jobs report, which is just as much of a potential volatility flash point as it always is.

Market Movement Recap

10:25 AM Stronger overnight, with some slight backtracking.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 3.3bps at 4.669

12:24 PM weakest levels. MBS still up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr still down 2.5bps at 4.676

The financial data firm Intercontinental Exchange is buying the firm that runs the Ameribor interest rate benchmark, which some community and regional banks back as a LIBOR alternative.

Bayview Asset Management and three affiliates settled multistate allegations that their handling of a 2021 data breach failed to meet certain standards.

In the US, the 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 4.73% Wednesday, pushing it toward the 5% peak hit in October 2023, before pulling back down.

The Department of Justice alleges that The Mortgage Firm failed to serve majority Black and Hispanic neighborhoods in the Miami metropolitan area.

Two trade groups filed a lawsuit against the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau claiming it exceeded its authority and ignored the legislative history on medical debts.

Some Volatility But Broadly Sideways

Markets seemingly had a lot to get through today between economic data, the Treasury auction, and Fed Minutes.  In addition, there were several headlines from Fed speakers and other policy makers that could have inspired some movement.  Despite all that, and notwithstanding some back-and-forth volatility, bonds traded fairly flat.  Moreover, trading levels remain in line with those seen just after yesterday morning’s sell-off.  Bonds are only open for a half day tomorrow and there are no major economic reports. The next big to-do is Friday morning’s jobs report. 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment

122k vs 140k f’cast, 146k prev

Jobless Claims

201k vs 218k f’cast, 211k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM Moderately weaker overnight and mixed since data came out.  MBS unchanged and 10yr up 3bps at 4.713

12:54 PM MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.8bps at 4.69 ahead of 30yr bond auction.  

01:03 PM Gaining some ground after well-received 30yr bond auction.  10yr down 1bp at 4.673.  MBS back to unchanged.

03:26 PM Two-way volatility after the last update, but not much change.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.68

Jobless claims data is normally a Thursday affair, but Federal economic data is not being released tomorrow due to the Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning (markets still open a half day).  As such, we received it this morning along with ADP Employment. Neither report caused any drama for rates, but neither prompted an obvious response. If there’s a market mover so far this morning, it’s a series of relatively friendly comments from Fed’s Waller who downplayed tariff impacts on inflation and, despite acknowledging the uncertainty associated with new fiscal policies, said there are more rate cuts ahead.

I can’t take credit for, “People don’t care about how much you know until they know how much you care.” Empathy and maintaining contacts are oh so important for LOs, brokers, whoever is in contact with a client. Despite mortgage rates being the highest since July, refis now account for 41 percent of applications, and STRATMOR’s current blog is “Refis Help the Economy and the Industry is Ready to Help.” Meanwhile, lenders and vendors are keeping a close eye on Washington DC as well as the 50 state capitals. The MBA’s tools and resources for state associations, state legislative and regulatory committees, the Mortgage Action Alliance and MORPAC, advocacy and lobbying, and MBA state relations committees are all worth knowing about, at least, if you’re in this business. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CoreLogic. CoreLogic gives mortgage professionals the tools they need to establish long-term relationships with their clients, helping them keep future business in-house and transforming the way they do business. Today’s has an Interview with Onity Group’s Walter Mullen on the subservicing market as it pertains to technology, automation and data, consumer behavior, and what is possible with AI.) Lender and Broker Services, Software, and Products “Are you attending the servicing conference in Dallas next Month? Not much has changed with the traditional solutions offered in the servicing world. MortgageFlex is bringing innovation to loan servicing with a system inspired by decades of experience in the origination space. We have added full default to the industry’s first cloud-native servicing system. MortgageFlex Default is the first of its kind, built inside the full servicing system, and can also operate stand-alone. All other solutions are external products bolted on to support the default process. The application accommodates servicing of Loss Mitigation, Bankruptcy, and Foreclosure solutions. It is delivered with all 50 state foreclosure templates that the servicer can utilize and/or change themselves. Our SQL Database model includes real-time transactions, workflow queues, reporting, and free data access. Make an appointment with John McCrea or stop by booth 420 to see the future of loan servicing.”