Recent stock market losses have gotten a lot attention in the news recently. While there’s no reliable correlation between stocks and interest rates, when stock losses are as big as they have been recently, it increases the tendency for rates to move in the same direction.  That was definitely the case today. Bonds (which dictate rates) improved overnight as stocks sank further. But as early as 7am, a reversal began to take shape. The catalyst was a comment from NY Fed Pres Williams who said he sees a good case for a rate cut at the upcoming December meeting. On one hand, improved rate cut odds are typically good for longer term interest rates.  That was apparent in the immediate moments following the the comment.  But in many cases, such comments are also good for stocks. On occasions where stocks aren’t in the throes of a big sell-off, the net effect is often a divergence between stocks and rates (i.e. stocks move higher on Fed rate cut enthusiasm and bonds move lower for the same reason). In this week’s case, because a decent amount of downward pressure on rates is attributable to recent stock losses, the rebound in stocks quickly gave way to upward pressure in rates. Fortunately, the overnight gains were large enough to absorb that upward pressure. As such, mortgage rates managed to hold on to a modest improvement versus Thursday’s latest levels. This keeps rates in the same narrow, sideways range that’s been intact since the late October Fed meeting. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks

The stock market factored into the bond market’s performance on Friday.  In pre-market trading stocks managed a big bounce after NY Fed’s Williams spoke favorably about December’s rate cut potential. Bonds benefited from that comment initially, but the stock rally quickly forced bonds to find a floor for the day. From then on, stocks continued putting upward pressure on rates, but the net effect was that bonds simply held sideways whereas they might have otherwise continued to rally.

Econ Data / Events

Non Farm Payrolls (Sep)

119K vs 50K f’cast, 22K prev

Participation Rate (Sep)

62.4% vs — f’cast, 62.3% prev

Philly Fed Business Index (Nov)

-1.7 vs -3.1 f’cast, -12.8 prev

Philly Fed Prices Paid (Nov)

56.10 vs — f’cast, 49.20 prev

Unemployment rate mm (Sep)

4.4% vs 4.3% f’cast, 4.3% prev

Market Movement Recap

09:16 AM Stronger overnight, mostly in line with stock losses. Some additional gains on Fed’s Williams’ rate cut thoughts.  MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.059

11:37 AM Near weakest levels but still in positive territory.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.072

12:27 PM weakest levels. MBS unchanged and 10yr up 0.2bps at 4.085

02:54 PM Back near strongest levels now with MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.062

Builder confidence levels are still kicking the same sad little can down the road, just with slightly more enthusiasm. The November National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) inched up to 38 from 37 in October, marking the 19th straight month below the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction. Looking at the underlying components, we find the same deck of cards shuffled in a slightly different order. The component for current sales conditions improved two points to 41 and the buyer traffic index ticked up one point to 26—still firmly in “low to very low” territory. The index tracking sales expectations over the next 6 months actually fell three points to 51, which is still modestly positive but not exactly a vote of confidence in a near-term boom. Affordability remains the main villain. Even after pulling back from peak levels, mortgage rates are high enough that a lot of would-be buyers are still on the sidelines. Any sustained move toward lower rates would help unstick that buyer traffic index, but for now, builders are operating in a world where financing costs are still a big constraint. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Pricing pressure was especially evident in this particular installment. NAHB reports that 41% of builders cut home prices in November, the first time this metric has broken above 40% in the post-Covid era. The average reduction was 6%, and 65% of builders used sales incentives, matching the elevated levels seen in September and October. In other words, builders are still doing a lot of financial gymnastics just to get deals across the finish line.

Mortgage applications moved lower last week as rates continued drifting higher for a third straight week. MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 14 showed a 5.2% drop in total volume on a seasonally adjusted basis and a 7% decline unadjusted. The Refinance Index fell 7% from the previous week but is still running 125% above last year’s levels. Even with the pullback, refi activity remains firmly in recovery territory compared to the past two years. That said, the recent rate bump pushed the average refinance loan size to its lowest reading since August, underscoring just how sensitive the category remains to even small rate moves. Purchase activity was more stable, slipping 2% seasonally adjusted and 7% unadjusted. Despite the weekly decline, purchase volume is still 26% higher than the same week one year ago—another sign that buyer demand is meaningfully stronger than it was in late 2023 and early 2024. “Mortgage rates increased for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate inching higher to its highest level in four weeks at 6.37 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Application activity over the week was lower, with potential homebuyers moving to the sidelines again, although there was a small increase in FHA purchase applications. Refinance applications decreased as borrowers remain sensitive to even small increases in rates at this level.” The refinance share of applications dipped to 55.4%. ARM share fell to 7.5%, while FHA, VA, and USDA shares all moved slightly higher.

Non-QM’s rapid rise is reshaping how lenders underwrite and manage risk, setting a model the rest of the industry will follow, writes the founder of Prudent AI.

Frank Cassidy, who is currently principal deputy assistant secretary at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, will soon face a full Senate vote.

Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook, citing several studies, outlined her concerns Thursday that generative AI could be used to manipulate markets, and regulators have not yet thought through how to police such activity.

The national median payment applied for by purchase applicants fell to $2,039 in October from September, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.

Even with this week’s increase, mortgage rates have remained within a 13 basis point band since mid-September, with industry pundits saying that’s where they will stay.

Yesterday, we discussed the fact that mortgage rates were heading into Thursday with a disadvantage (for most lenders, anyway). This had to do with the fact that lenders prefer to avoid changing rates in the middle of the day (unless bond market movement is big enough to force their hands) and the fact that bonds had weakened just enough for lenders to begin considering changing rates by the end of the day. In other words, lenders either had to increase rates yesterday afternoon or this morning, all other things being equal. The only thing that would have mitigated that necessity would have been a bond market rally of equal size to yesterday’s losses.  Fortunately, that’s exactly what we saw after this morning’s jobs report. The following chart shows movement in the actual bonds that control mortgage rates.  Bottom line: today’s rates were the same as yesterday’s because the red boxes were at similar levels.