The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One that you’ll likely hear more about in the coming months is Revelio Labs, a company using data aggregation and modeling to synthesize it’s own version of nonfarm payrolls.  While it’s far from an exact match, the trends are similar, and Revelio’s data is less volatile (much like ADP always has been). All that to say, there’s no great way to justify this morning’s rally in bonds without the Revelio release at 8:30am ET, which showed a decline in monthly job creation.

It would be easy to mistake today’s rally as a product of an extremely high number of layoffs reported by the firm Challenger, Gray, and Christmas (aka Challenger Job Cut Report or “Challenger Layoffs”). But note that Challenger was released several hours early in the overnight session.  It definitely had an impact, but bonds went right back to business as usual shortly thereafter. 

Frequent conference goers or traveling salespeople are obviously concerned about the Trump Administration cutting 10 percent of flights for a variety of reasons. 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration agents are working without pay. For anyone looking for a job through the Job Board, here’s a pro tip for a question in your next interview: “Where do you see yourself in five years?” Answer: “Celebrating the 5th anniversary in your lunchroom of you asking me that question.” Job news, good and bad, is in the forefront of economic and residential news. The Trump Administration has apparently fired a mortgage regulator watchdog and Fannie Mae’s ethics staff. Is AI leading to layoffs or does the U.S. economy just stink? (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by ICE. As the standard for innovation, artificial intelligence, efficiency and scalability, ICE is the technology of choice for the majority of industry participants, defining the future of homeownership. Today’s features an interview with Servbank’s Sharmyn Calhoun on the importance of technology in modern compliance management.) Services, Products, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers Some things don’t just stand the test of time; they keep getting better with it. FirstClose, celebrating its 25th anniversary this month, has spent a quarter century proving that innovation and endurance can go hand in hand. What started as a single-source provider of property data has evolved into a comprehensive end-to-end platform, supporting over 225 lenders and $129 billion in funded loans since 2015. In an industry where technology changes faster than rates, few companies can claim that kind of consistency or impact. As FirstClose marks 25 years, its mission remains as relevant as ever: helping lenders simplify processes, strengthen borrower experience, and turn opportunity into growth. Connect with the FirstClose team to see how 25 years of innovation can help your lending operation thrive today…and for the next 25.

At its first investor day in a decade and a half, the nation’s second-largest bank pegged its guidance for return on tangible common equity at a slightly higher level than what it reported last quarter. Not all investors were impressed.

Previously, Kim was a managing director in J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.’s strategic investments group, where she managed a diverse portfolio of fintech investments.

The lender reported $33.3 million in net income in the third quarter this year, up from the second quarter and same period a year earlier.

What makes the situation alarming is the government attack on the fair lending enforcement infrastructure, said Lisa Rice of the National Fair Housing Alliance.

The latest sale consists of close to 1,200 HECMs secured by vacant residential units found in 46 states, according to data provided by the government agency.

“Did you hear about the Chinese guy who spoke out against the government? Exactly.” Hate the U.S. Government or love it, sometimes government and lender interaction is beneficial, sometimes not. The ongoing federal government shutdown not only has impacted citizen’s psychology, but has hit FHA and VA loan processing via reduced staff, creating endorsement delays of days to weeks. USDA loans remain completely halted for new guarantees, although it appears that IRS transcript processing, and other verification services needed for all loan types, is functioning. The NAR (National Association of Realtors) estimates approximately 1,400 property transactions per day could be affected when the shutdown went beyond 30 days. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended publication of economic data, leaving markets and policymakers without critical employment and inflation reports, grinding down bond market activity. Furloughed workers certainly aren’t buying homes. (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by ICE. As the standard for innovation, artificial intelligence, efficiency and scalability, ICE is the technology of choice for the majority of industry participants, defining the future of homeownership. Today’s features an interview with ICE’s Dana Federspiel on the key challenges servicers and subservicers are facing in a rapidly evolving industry, how servicers can achieve greater scalability and efficiency, and which regulatory issues may impact the sector heading into 2026.)

A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-scheduled economic reports due to the government shutdown. While this means rates must “fly blind” on many of the days that would normally coincide with these government economic reports, there are other days that still play host to top-tier non-government data. Today boasted not one–but two such reports. Unfortunately for rates, both reports were unfriendly. Rates tend to benefit from economic weakness. As such, when reports are stronger than expected, it pushes rates higher, all else equal. Today’s reports were both stronger. ADP’s monthly employment tally came in at 42k versus a median forecast of 25k. This isn’t an especially large margin of victory, but it was enough to cause weakness in bonds earlier this morning.  Less than 2 hours later, the most widely-followed report on the health of the services sector also showed stronger-than-expected results. Bonds continued to weaken after that, ultimately forcing lenders to raise rates back to levels just under those seen in late September.   If things had been even a little bit worse, we’d be at the highest rates in just over 2 months.  As it stands, we’re close enough. MND’s 30yr fixed index rose to 6.37% today.  September 25th’s level was 6.39, and that’s as high as we’ve been since September 4th. In the bigger picture, rates are still much closer to 2025’s lows as opposed to the highs, but there’s been a palpable shift since the Fed meeting at the end of October. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data.  The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Services often falls on Wednesday, joining ADP to create a duo with a strong track record of market movement.  In today’s case, because of the government shutdown, it means we’re getting a higher proportion of market-moving data inside a 2 hour window than any other day (or even entire week) could possibly offer. Unfortunately, neither report was bond-friendly. Thankfully though, ADP wasn’t exceptionally unfriendly. Additionally, at 48.2, ISM’s employment component remains under 50 (the dividing line between expansion and contraction) and barely beat the 47.6 forecast. These “yeah buts” are likely limiting the damage we’d otherwise be seeing, but there is nonetheless some damage to see.