Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity rose 4.8% last week, according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 5. Unadjusted applications jumped 49% from the prior week, reflecting a rebound following the Thanksgiving-related slowdown. The Refinance Index surged 14% from the previous week and remains 88% higher than the same week one year ago—another strong year-over-year showing as borrowers respond to modest rate improvement, particularly in FHA products. Purchase activity was softer on a seasonally adjusted basis, slipping 2% from the prior week. Unadjusted purchase applications increased 32% week-over-week due to the holiday comparison and are running 19% above last year’s pace, supported by gradually improving affordability and inventory conditions. “Compared to the prior week’s data, which included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday, mortgage application activity increased last week, driven by an uptick in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Conventional refinance applications were up almost 8 percent and government refinances were up 24 percent as the FHA rate dipped to its lowest level since September 2024. Conventional purchase applications were down for the week, but there was a 5 percent increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek lower downpayment loans. Overall purchase applications continued to run ahead of 2024’s pace as broader housing inventory and affordability conditions improve gradually.”

The company’s latest funding announcement caps off a year of tailwinds that propelled growth for home equity investment platforms and related lending products.

A federal court cannot modify a preliminary injunction to compel the acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to request funding for the agency, the Department of Justice said.

Democratic senators are calling for Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott to compel the acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to testify.

The decision in a New York case that is also undergoing federal review puts pressure on related parties to get things right within a statute of limitations.

Forty percent of Americans planning to buy or sell a home in 2026 worry about a potential market crash, according to a new report from Clever Offers.

“Seminar ‘How to avoid frauds’ is canceled. Tickets are non-refundable.” Collectively, we don’t want mortgage fraud, right? It’s a non-partisan issue. A grand jury rejected a new mortgage fraud indictment against New York Attorney General Letitia James. Meanwhile, it must be difficult living under a constant microscope, and yesterday a story broke that “Trump’s Own Mortgages Match His Description of Mortgage Fraud.” (Government watchers also noted that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that he has “divested” himself of North Dakota soybean farmland while President Trump has announced a $12 billion aid package for farmers impacted by trade policies.) Capital markets staff are focused on many things, including combatting fraud since it is illegal and impacts everyone from borrowers to investors. Today’s Capital Markets Wrap, at 3PM ET and presented by Polly, the group addresses many of the general topics facing the industry: the December slowdown in MBS trading, the Fed meeting, 2026 forecasts that hint at brief refinance openings, higher conforming loan limits, record home equity, first-time homebuyer trends, and how new trigger-lead rules may affect recapture strategies next year. One topic unlikely to be covered is artificial intelligence, but don’t worry: In his latest heavily footnoted Mortgage Musing, attorney Brian Levy offers his unique perspective on the role of AI in the mortgage industry and the hard work needed to lower the cost of mortgage loan production. (Sign up for free to get an email from Mortgage Musings whenever Levy posts a new one by subscribing here.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Lenders One. Lenders One is dedicated to helping independent mortgage bankers, banks and credit unions reduce costs, improve profitability, and operate competitively in the mortgage industry and within their communities. Hear an interview with Fairwinds Magda DeMauro on how lenders can overcome regulatory and operational barriers, use education, adopt strategic overlays, and embrace emerging tools to offer more flexible, innovative credit decisions that help better support borrowers seeking new or alternative paths to homeownership.)

Mortgage rates were surprisingly steady on Tuesday with most lenders roughly in line with Monday’s levels. Why surprising?  Because the bond market was noticeably weaker and bonds dictate day to day mortgage rate movement. In Tuesday’s case, we can actually reconcile the steadiness with the timing of bond market movement. Specifically, bonds didn’t lose ground until after the 10am release of the Job Openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most mortgage lenders consider bond market levels before 10am when setting rates for the day. The implication is that if bonds are at the same levels tomorrow morning, the average lender would set rates higher. Tomorrow afternoon brings another potential source of volatility in the form of the latest Fed announcement.  The most important thing to understand about tomorrow’s probably Fed rate cut is that it is NOT a mortgage rate cut.  In fact, mortgage rates have been more likely to move higher following recent Fed cuts. Even then, the cut itself is not the news the market is waiting for. Rather, traders are interested to see each Fed member’s rate outlook via the quarterly release of the Fed’s economic projections. In addition, every Fed meeting includes a press conference with the Fed Chair and bonds have often made the biggest moves in response. Bottom line: the rate cut means nothing for mortgage rates. Volatility will come from the 2pm ET dot plot (the chart that shows each Fed members’ rate outlook) and the 2:30pm press conference.

Wednesday is All About Dot Plot and Powell

Bonds lost ground moderately and logically on Tuesday in response to the JOLTS data. From here, this week’s volatility potential hinges on the Fed. Fed Funds Futures suggest that there’s been no change in rate cut prospects for Wednesday’s meeting.  It remains a nearly a 90% probability and thus a non-event when the cut is announced. The more important events will be the 2pm ET release of the dot plot (individual Fed member forecasts for the Fed Funds Rate) and the 2:30pm press conference with Fed Chair Powell.  While it may be fashionable to hold the cynical view that Powell’s pressers “always” hurt rates, that’s certainly not the case and we have no way to know if it will be the case on Wednesday. At the very least, the bearish set-up over the past 2 weeks should tell you that anything can happen (considering Fed rate cut days have often pushed back against the prevailing trend in rates). 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment Change Weekly

4.75K vs — f’cast, -13.5K prev

CB Leading Index MoM (Sep)

-0.3% vs -0.3% f’cast, -0.5% prev

JOLTs Job Quits (Sep)

3.128M vs — f’cast, 3.091M prev

JOLTs Job Quits (Oct)

2.941M vs — f’cast, — prev

USA JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)

7.658M vs 7.2M f’cast, 7.227M prev

USA JOLTS Job Openings (Oct)

7.670M vs — f’cast, 7.658M prev

Market Movement Recap

10:50 AM Sideways to slightly stronger overnight, but now weaker after JOLTS data. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.178

02:10 PM Weakest levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.185

04:17 PM Drifting out at weakest levels. MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.185

Tuesday is a fairly straightforward session for the bond market.  By now, we assume most of the pre-Fed positioning would be out of the way, and we know there was a decent amount of anticipation for the JOLTS data (job openings and labor turnover survey). True to form, volume spiked to its highest levels since the 11/20 delayed release of the jobs report. Unfortunately for bonds, job openings came in higher.  The saving grace is that the “quits” rate fell to the lowest levels of the cycle (lower quits = good for rates, all else equal). The net effect is still a sell-off in bonds, but not as forceful a sell-off as it could have been without the mixed signals.