The artificial intelligence-based technology automates manual processes associated with the financing, including draws, for homes under construction.

Surprisingly Light Volatility

Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-related headlines that probably would have caused a much bigger reaction a few weeks ago. But the net effect was an almost perfectly flat day by the 3pm CME close. If anything, the data caused some weakness and we can say bonds would have rallied more noticeably otherwise. The weak response is no surprise considering all 3 reports were stronger than expected. This also serves as a reminder that Friday’s jobs report is still a relevant market mover despite a general focus on the war and energy prices. 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment

62k vs 40k f’cast, 63k prev

Retail Sales

0.6 vs 0.5 f’cast, -0.2 prev

Core Retail Sales

0.5 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.2 prev

ISM Manufacturing

52.7 vs 52.5 f’cast

ISM Prices Paid

78.3 vs 73.0 f’cast, 70.5 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:24 AM slightly stronger overnight with a bit of selling after ADP. MBS still up an eighth and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.301

08:38 AM Giving up gains after Retail Sales. MBS unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.317

11:04 AM Recovering some ground now. No particular reason. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.301

01:43 PM MBS up about an eighth and 10yr roughly unchanged at 4.313

03:23 PM MBS up only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.33

The increase in 10-year yields this month has had the effect of arresting what had been an encouraging decline in US mortgage rates for lenders.

Home prices increased 0.9% year-over-year and 0.1% month-over-month in January, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national home price index.

The real estate fintech touted Doma’s role in Fannie Mae’s title-acceptance pilot as key to the deal, which follows Opendoor’s recent mortgage product rollout.

While San Francisco had the biggest improvement in affordability for prices today versus 2019, Hartford remains in a very deep freeze, First American said.

A federal judge granted the interview request for a brokerage accused of violating the megalender’s restriction on selling loans to wholesale competitors.

Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion

Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid–sometimes puzzling–gains in February followed by a relative rout in March. Heavy quarter-end rebalancing flows are making for more volatility than normal at 4pm ET, but up until that point, 10yr yields had rallied roughly 8bps. Those gains were fueled by headlines that spoke to potential de-escalation in Iran–something that’s easy enough to confirm by examining the corresponding drop in oil prices and spike in stocks. That said, the underlying news falls short of marking a distinct turning point in the war.

Econ Data / Events

Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Jan)

1.2% vs 1.3% f’cast, 1.4% prev

CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Jan)

-0.1% vs — f’cast, -0.1% prev

FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Jan)

0.1% vs 0.1% f’cast, 0.1% prev

FHFA Home Prices y/y (Jan)

1.6% vs — f’cast, 1.8% prev

Job Openings

6.882m vs 6.92m f’cast, 7.24m prev

Job Quits (lower = better for bonds)

2.974m vs 3.100m prev

Market Movement Recap

09:18 AM Moderately stronger overnight. MBS up just over a quarter point and 10yr down 5bps at 4.302

12:50 PM Near best levels with MBS up more than 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.298

01:53 PM MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.31

04:12 PM Off the best levels after quarter-end rebalancing trades. MBS up only 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down only 3 bps at 4.322

The focal point of the overnight news cycle was a report that administration officials said Trump is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Markets rallied nearly as much just before the open when Trump said the hard part is essentially done on the Iran war (and that other countries should just go take their own oil now, or buy it from the U.S.). The initial move took yields from 4.36 to 4.33 and the pre-open rally was 4.34 to 4.30–“moderate,” but notable as it is happening on the day after an already big rally. War headlines remain in focus despite econ data ramping up. If 10am ET job openings data is spicy enough, it could command some attention given that the “recession fear” trade is thought to be the key reason that bond yields defied higher oil prices yesterday.
Today’s charts highlight the correlation that continues to exist between bonds and oil price volatility in the short term, and the absence of that correlation over certain, longer time frames. In other words, markets are still paying attention, but the bonds do indeed look increasingly cognizant of growth impacts.

Appraisal methodology and analysis have changed over the years, and we’re about to undergo another major alteration with UAD 3.6. Some investors are ahead of the 11/2/26 curve. For example, Newrez is now accepting loans from clients who have adopted the Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) 3.6 Appraisal and Forms Redesign and submitted via the Uniform Collateral Data Portal (UCDP) “for all conforming loans and non-QM loans (Smart Series). Government (FHA, VA, and USDA), JUMBO AUS and Closed-end seconds loans must continue using the UAD 2.6 appraisals.” This write up by AXIS AMC’s Mike Simmons is a good primer: all appraisals, to be eligible for sale to Fannie and Freddie, must be submitted in UAD (Uniform Appraisal Dataset) 3.6 format. Class Valuation’s Mark Walser told me that lenders need to have begun setting up the process and planning in the first quarter of 2026, and spend the 2nd and 3rd quarters testing and transitioning their appraisal volume to it. I am sure that it will be a topic on tomorrow’s interview with Deephaven’s Tom Davis, sponsored by L1. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by RelCu. RelCu is the all-in-one agentic platform driving conversion, retention, and cross-sell across mortgage and deposits. Today’s features an interview after 6AM PT with Guild Mortgage’s Terry Schmidt on understanding borrower behavior, adoption of AI-driven and digital capabilities, affordability, and access, and both cultural and structural shifts toward data-driven proactive lending.)