NCUA’s one-member board liquidates two failed credit unions

The National Credit Union Administration, operating with just one board member, has liquidated two credit unions that were recently put into conservatorship. The failures are the first credit union failures since Democrats on the board were fired, leaving Republican Chair Kyle Hauptman.

FICO Simulation, Georgia Servicing, Recapture Tools; What LOs Should Be Doing Now; Deficits and the New Tax Bill

“Life is like a roll of toilet paper: The closer you get to the end, the faster it goes.” Just like that, 2025 is half over. With it have come changes at the GSEs, government loan programs, and the compliance landscape. In his latest edition of Mortgage Musings, Attorney Brian Levy offers insights on the trigger lead bill(s) and the challenges faced by DC trade association lobbyists in the current environment. (Sign up here for a free subscription to Levy’s Mortgage Musings.) Certainly there have been changes in the servicing landscape, and STRATMOR’s Advisory Angle today at 11AM PT is, “The Strategic Power of Servicing: Turning Cost into Competitive Advantage” featuring Michael Grad, Mike Seminari, and Garth Graham. “Servicing has emerged as a strategic growth driver for mortgage lenders navigating a challenging 2025 market. From increasing regulatory scrutiny to rising borrower expectations and compressed margins, the conversation explores why servicing can no longer be treated as a cost center, and how the smartest lenders are using it to build loyalty, drive recapture, and create operational leverage.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Figure, which is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the banking, CU, home improvement, and (of course) IMB space embedding their technology, giving borrowers an experience they will rave about. Today’s has an interview with Bank United’s Chris Huang on trends that capital providers are seeing in mortgage originators and what to look for in bank partners or warehouse line counterparties.)

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 3 Month Lows

It’s been 88 days since the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was as low as it is today–close enough to 3 months.  Some lenders may be higher or lower than they were yesterday depending on whether or not changed rates yesterday afternoon. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day, but can “reprice” if the underlying bond market moves enough in one direction or the other. Bonds improved enough yesterday afternoon for many lenders to offer slightly lower rates.  Those lenders are a hair higher today, generally.   In terms of the underlying bond market, things are just a bit better right now compared to yesterday morning and just a bit worse compared to yesterday afternoon. That deterioration mainly followed this morning’s job openings data which showed another increase from the longer-term lows seen 2 months ago. Rates typically move higher if job openings are higher than expected, all else equal. But today’s data-driven volatility is nothing compared to what could be seen on Thursday morning following the big jobs report (officially, the “Employment Situation” which offers a count of jobs created in June as well as an update to the unemployment rate). 

Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data

Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data

After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds were right in line with yesterday afternoon’s levels ahead of the 10am data.  JOLTS (job openings) pushed yields back to yesterday’s highs–perhaps with some help from the Senate’s passage of the spending bill, but at that point, traders bought the dip in bond prices and pushed back into the day’s range.  It wasn’t enough to get back to positive territory, but it made the day less of an obvious turning point in the bigger-picture.  Perhaps a better way to say it would be that bonds still look open-minded when it comes to responding to Thursday’s jobs report and next week’s CPI.

Econ Data / Events

S&P Manufacturing PMI

52.9 vs 52.0 f’cast, 52.0 prev

ISM Manufacturing

49.0 vs 48.8 f’cast, 48.5 prev

ISM Employment

45.0 vs 47.0 f’cast, 46.8 prev

ISM Prices

69.7 vs 69 f’cast

Job Openings

7.769m vs 7.300m f’cast, 7.395m prev

Market Movement Recap

10:34 AM slightly stronger overnight, but progressively weaker in the AM–especially after 10am econ data.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.256

12:01 PM 10yr yields are up 5bp at 4.273.  MBS down a quarter point.

02:59 PM Modest recovery.  MBS down only 5 ticks (.16) now.  10yr up 2.5bps at 4.25

AM Data Possibly Arguing For a Bounce

Tuesday brings the week’s first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings.  The PMI data was somewhat more debatable with headline levels slightly stronger than expected, but some internal components remaining bond-friendly.  Job openings data was less equivocal, suggesting a marked bounce versus last month’s lower levels (and the previous month’s cycle lows).  In other words, job openings now look more like they’re leveling off after falling rapidly from 2022 through late 2024 or early 2025, depending on how one chooses to view the trend. Bonds have been more interested in responding to the job openings data, and this has MBS moving quickly back to yesterday’s lows and yields near yesterday’s highs.