Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech

Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech

The long-awaited tariff speech took markets for a ride in both directions this afternoon. After the dust settled, the net effect was “buy bonds, sell stocks.” Notably, that was a sharp departure from the initial net effect during the early part of Trump’s speech. The ultimately friendly result was enough to get Treasuries back into positive territory and for MBS to get sorta close.  In the bigger picture, the volatility didn’t really matter as both stocks and bonds remained in the same old ranges. 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment

155k vs 105k f’cast, 77k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:23 AM Stronger overnight and no major reaction to ADP data.  MBS up an eighth of a point and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.127

11:50 AM Losing ground as stocks rally.  10yr up 1.7bps at 4.179 and MBS unchanged.

12:29 PM More weakness.  MBS down an eighth of a point now and 10yr up 4.8 bps at 4.21

04:19 PM 10yr yields are up 6.7bps at 4.23 and MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and more than a quarter point from rate sheet print times.

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Choppy, But Sideways Morning Leaves Focus on Afternoon Headlines

This morning’s ADP Employment data was the only potential market mover for bonds, at least as far as scheduled data is concerned.  Despite coming out a bit higher than expected, bonds opted to maintain the rally trend that had been intact since the start of European trading overnight. That resulted in moderate gains at the start of the 9:30am NYSE open, but things changed from there.  Stocks bounced higher and brough bond yields along for the ride.  The net effect is modest weakness, and no major change to the sideways grind in the bigger picture.  Things could change for better or worse this afternoon after the tariff announcement expected at 4pm ET.

Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher, But Tomorrow is Anyone’s Guess

Mortgage rates didn’t move much today, which is pretty crazy considering the volatility present in financial markets in the afternoon.  That’s when the long awaited tariff announcement speech took place.  There was always a decent chance of a whipsaw in response and a whipsaw is what we got. Fortunately, the net effect for the bond market (bonds dictate interest rates) was positive. In other words, interest rates received good news while stocks received bad news.  The catch is that bond had been having a somewhat downbeat day until then.  As such, the favorable reaction to the tariff news merely got the bond market back to suggesting fairly flat interest rates compared to yesterday’s latest levels.  Most lenders will wait until tomorrow to make any friendly adjustments, and that assumes bonds hold at the same levels overnight.   Bottom line: plenty of market volatility in the afternoon, but ultimately implying very little change in mortgage rates.