The Trump administration continues to battle the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s union by seeking a stay of a preliminary injunction that reinstated the CFPB’s workforce and contracts and preserved its data.

Former Capital One Multifamily executive Grace Huebscher departed recently and the Federal Housing Finance Agency appointed a successor amid broader reform.

Slow repair cycle times, widespread premium increases and the volume of catastrophic events all contribute to dissatisfaction, according to the U.S. Property Claims Satisfaction Study from J.D. Power.

The deal was highly vetted with regulators following the publicly traded company’s failure to obtain approval in a past agreement, an executive said.

Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness

Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors  reacted to weekend tariff news with a risk-off move.  Stocks bounced shortly after the NYSE open and bond yields were pulled higher in concert.  That prevailing correlation broke down around 3pm due to month/quarter end bond buying (3pm is the official close for bonds, even though trading continues until 5pm). There was no major reaction to econ data or Fed speakers today.  The data becomes more relevant in the coming days. 

Econ Data / Events

Chicago PMI

47.6 vs 45.2 f’cast, 45.5 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:54 AM Stronger overnight as stocks continue tanking.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.208

11:30 AM Weakest levels of the day. MBS nearly unchanged and 10yr still down 1.3bps at 4.223

03:10 PM Some month/quarter end buying at 3pm helping a modest recovery.  10yr down 0.3bps at 4.232.  MBS unchanged. 

Right out of the gate in the overnight session, stocks were weaker and bonds were stronger in a risk-off move that has become all too familiar for financial markets recently. Over the weekend, a fresh round of tariff headlines added more economic uncertainty to the mix with Trump mentioning reciprocal tariffs with “all countries” and WSJ reporting that an across-the-board 20% tariff is being considered.  Stocks and bond yields are both rapidly re-approaching their lowest levels of this cycle.

It’s been three years since Credit Plus re-branded as Xactus, and now another name brand in the mortgage world has a new name. Corelogic has become Cotality, leading to plenty of puns like, “If First American ever considers rebranding, let’s hope they don’t use the same agency as Corelogic, as then we’d have… Fatality.” In other current events, I received, “Rob, thank you for the advice in Saturday’s Commentary about logging on to www.ssa.gov and printing out a hardcopy of my SSA earnings history and the latest seven Cost of Living Adjustment letters ahead of DOGE rewriting all the code. We found an error that would have cost me thousands of dollars.” In other good news, The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reported on the performance of first-lien mortgages in the federal banking system during the fourth quarter of 2024. The OCC Mortgage Metrics Report, Fourth Quarter 2024 showed that 97.3 percent of mortgages included in the report were current and performing at the end of the quarter, an increase from 97.2 percent one year earlier. The percentage of seriously delinquent mortgages (60 or more days past due and all mortgages held by bankrupt borrowers whose payments are 30 or more days past due) decreased from the fourth quarter of 2023. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Calque. Calque provides a binding backup offer on your borrower’s departing residence to clear the existing mortgage balance and closing costs in 48 business hours or less. Today’s features an interview with NerdWallet’s Liz Renter on her company’s First-Time Home Buyer Affordability Report that focused on new insights from Q4 of 2024.)

“Sideways” has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70% the following week.  We haven’t been outside of that range since then. Today was just another day in that regard, or perhaps even a prime example considering it was smack dab in the middle of that range.  While it’s not always apparent by the time mortgage lenders set rates for the day, the underlying bond market continues experiencing volatility behind the scenes. Recently, that volatility often aligns with the stock market as investors react to the economic implications of fiscal policies.  This could cause more movement on Wednesday when tariff details are expected to come out. In addition, this week’s economic data is more than capable of moving the needle–especially Friday’s jobs report.  As always, there’s no way to know which direction rates will move in response to key events.  If there were, investors would move in that direction before the event, thus taking the probability back to 50% for either outcome.  

Policy shifts and economic headwinds could reshape mortgage finance under Trump II says the Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors.

Mortgage lenders and vendors are waiving fees and enhancing program criteria, looking to reduce costs for borrowers and increase their business.