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CPI came in just a hair below forecasts at the headline level and right in line with forecasts at the core level (unrounded .295 vs .300). Shelter components continued lower with Owners’ Equivalent Rent at 0.220 (basically a cycle low if we ignore the low quality data collection surrounding the government shutdown). The only potential hurdle for the bond market to clear was the surge in the supercore reading to the highest levels in a year. Despite a fair amount of attention paid to supercore in 2025, bonds seem willing to look past this development today, perhaps concluding that it’s more important for housing-related metrics to continue their decline. 10yr yields are adding to this week’s rally, down about 3bps at 4.07 an hour after the data.

Unison faces allegations it operates as an unlicensed mortgage lender with misleading marketing that drives homeowners into high-risk “no-debt” contracts.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.09% Thursday, down two basis points from last week, while the 15-year rate fell to 5.44%, according to Freddie Mac.

A House subcommittee hearing discussing the future of the government-sponsored enterprises, noted both are still severely undercapitalized.

The company formerly known as Ocwen confirmed that a deferred tax asset valuation helped boost net income to common shareholders despite servicing challenges.

Contract closings decreased 8.4%, the biggest drop since February 2022, to a 3.91 million annualized pace in January, according to National Association of Realtors data released Thursday.

Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.

At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were just over 4.10%–the lowest level since December 4th, 2025.  In light of yesterday’s stronger jobs report, today’s absence of market moving data, and this week’s Treasury auction cycle, it is impossible to account for these gains without conjecture and assumption. Certainly heavy selling in stocks and commodities deserves some credit for driving a flight to safety that benefited bonds, but we’ve definitely seen similar stock selling without the bond market benefit. Apart from that, the guesses get more tenuous as we’d have to rely on things that can’t be seen or measured. Friday’s CPI carries some volatility potential, but not in the same league as the jobs report.

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Jan)/31

1,862K vs 1850K f’cast, 1844K prev

Jobless Claims (Feb)/07

227K vs 222K f’cast, 231K prev

Existing Home Sales

3.91m vs 4.18m f’cast, 4.27m prev

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM No major reaction to jobless claims data. Modestly stronger overnight with 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.152 and MBS up 3 ticks (0.09). 

10:02 AM Best levels of the morning with MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.3bps at 4.15

11:29 AM Mini-snowball rally with help from stock losses. 10yr down 5.2bps at 4.121 and MBS up 7 ticks (.22)

01:04 PM 30yr bond auction 4.75 vs 4.771 expectations.  Bid to cover 2.66 vs 2.36 avg (higher is better).  
10yr yields down 6.1bps to new lows of 4.113. MBS up 8 ticks still. 

03:35 PM Best levels of the day. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 7bps at 4.103

Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report–something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates–the average lender is back to the lowest levels since January 16th. At the risk of overusing a played-out metaphor, this was not on many experts’ bingo cards. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it’s not entirely possible to justify what we’ve seen over the past 2 days without jumping to conclusions and making educated guesses. Said guesses would rely on somewhat esoteric concepts regarding the way investor demand ebbs and flows between different Treasury securities (i.e. 2yr vs 10yr, etc).  More volatility could be on the way tomorrow. The BLS will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. This is the first major inflation report that comes out on any given month. Because inflation is a key consideration for rates, if CPI is meaningfully above or below the median forecast, rates often react accordingly.

Here at San Diego’s MCT Exchange 2026, the hallway chatter is varied. These are capital markets personnel, so things are pragmatic. One topic is Freddie Mac’s earnings: $2.8 billion in income for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $10.7 billion for 2025. Another is large companies becoming larger, exemplified by Tradeweb making an investment in MAXEX and by yesterday’s news of Pennymac entering into an agreement to acquire subservicer Cenlar (sponsor of this week’s podcasts with its 2 million loans). In fact, today’s podcast includes an interview with Pennymac’s Chief Strategy Officer Kevin Ryan on the acquisition of Cenlar. Yup, there’s no reason to think that the big won’t keep getting bigger in 2026, as has been mentioned many times in this Commentary. Credit score policy changes, political whipsawing, tariffs and their impact on the economy, new technology releases, and trends with correspondent investors are just part of the agenda, as they are with many other conferences in the coming weeks. Where lenders are prioritizing their resources in 2026 is important, and on today’s The Big Picture at noon PT Natalie Lanham, President & CFO of Willow Bend Mortgage, will be discussing that as well as single credit score implementation. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are Sponsored by Cenlar. Cenlar supports lenders and investors with scalable, best-in-class loan servicing built for today’s complex market. From compliance to customer experience, Cenlar helps portfolios perform better, borrowers stay supported, and servicers focus on growth. We’re proud to partner with a true industry leader. Hear an interview with Kastle’s Rishi Choudhary on how AI agents are moving from hype to real impact in mortgage lending and servicing by automating unstructured, high-friction borrower interactions at scale, delivering measurable ROI through lower servicing costs, higher loan officer productivity, and production-proven deployments.)