The Mortgage Bankers Association conducts a weekly survey on the level of mortgage applications, both for purchases and refinances.  Both data series continue to be a tale of two decidedly different eras for the mortgage market.  If we focus on the present era, for a moment, refi demand continued to enjoy a relative boom thanks to rates that remain much lower than they had been several weeks ago. The most recent levels were logically a bit lower as the average lender’s rates were a bit higher this time around.  If you were overcome with indignation at seeing someone refer to refi demand with the word “boom” in 2025, don’t worry.  We know about the context.  The present era is a barren wasteland compared to bygone eras when a boom meant roughly 5 times as many refis as today. The “2 era” phenomenon is less extreme when it comes to purchases, which tend to respond to rates only very gradually.  This has made for a much steadier level of purchase demand over the past few years.  In addition, the boomier era only saw twice as many purchase apps.  Other highlights from the data:
Refis accounted for 42% of apps, down from 45.6% last week
MBA’s survey showed a conventional 30yr fixed rate increase from 6.72 from 6.67 the previous week
FHA rates rate about 0.30% lower
ARM rates were 5.84% but only account for 6.7% of applications 

The head of operations at the Federal Housing Finance Agency and two C-suite leaders at the government-sponsored enterprise are out, according to Semafor.

The bipartisan co-chairs of the Community Financial Development Institution caucus sent a letter urging the Trump administration to continue supporting the CDFI Fund after it was slated for cuts in a recent executive order.

Kind Lending has big plans to grow its retail channel and is signaling this by putting industry veteran Tammy Richards in charge of the operations.

ICE Mortgage Technology announced additions for its Encompass LOS, while Mortgage Cadence is bringing out a new version of MCP aimed at mid-sized depositories.

The Fed’s wait-and-see approach on what will happen to the U.S. economy, while not directly impacting mortgages, will likely keep those rates elevated.

It was actually a rather uneventful day for the bond market. That means it should have been an uneventful day for mortgage rates (because they’re driven by changes in the bond market). To be fair, it was far from an exciting day, but the average mortgage lender was nonetheless able to inch closer to potentially exciting milestone. Rates have generally been flat at levels that are just a bit higher compared to the longer-term low seen in early March.  Before that, you’d have to go back to mid-October to see anything lower.  Today’s mortgage rates ended up 0.05% lower than yesterday’s, despite the bond market indicating no change.  The discrepancy comes down to timing. Yesterday saw a nice improvement in bonds late in the day.  Not every mortgage lender went to the trouble to improve their rates. Now today, bonds are falling back to the same levels, but they were in better shape this morning when most lenders decided their rates for the day.  The average lender has, once again, not gone to the trouble to raise their rates in response to the bond market movement.   If you’re wondering if there’s a tacit implication about tomorrow’s rates being a bit higher if nothing changes between now and then, you’re exactly right.  That would be the mathematical conclusion anyway. As for this afternoon, the average lender is only 0.01% above the “lowest since October” rates seen on the morning of March 4th.

Uneventful Trading Day, But That’s a Win

There’s not much to say about today’s trading session.  MBS and Treasuries both ended exactly in line with yesterday’s latest levels, and there wasn’t much fanfare in between.  Well, maybe “fanfare” depends on one’s perspective. 10yr yields managed to fall 6bps by 9:30am and pushed 6bps higher over the next 3.5 hours before flat-lining in the afternoon.  A 6bp swing is somewhat interesting, but even if we only had the flat-line, today would still be a victory due to yesterday’s gains and the fact that bonds haven’t been bothered by the moderate recovery in stocks.  Granted, today’s stock market bounce occurred at the same time as the bond yield bounce, but the correlation didn’t even make it through the day before breaking down again.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

223k vs 224k f’cast, 221k prev

Philly Fed Index

12.5 vs 8.5 f’cast, 18.1 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:30 AM No major reaction to ho hum data after overnight gains.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.9bps at 4.195

11:37 AM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.228.

03:10 PM sideways at weaker levels.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.2bps at 4.236

The eternal disclaimer: we should never flat-out expect a particular correlation between stocks and bonds, with limited exceptions. Yesterday’s Fed announcement was an exception, because we often see stocks and bonds improve together when the market perceives a friendlier Fed.  That correlation (stock prices moving higher and bond yields moving lower) is a break from the recent norm where heavy stock losses have spilled over to help bonds. We may be seeing a gentle return of that norm this morning.  Data failed to offer any inspiration, but stocks are surging at the open, with the reversal of overnight losses aligning with a reversal in the overnight bond market rally.

If there’s a happy takeaway above, it’s that the bond bounce hasn’t been remotely commensurate with the stock bounce.  Perhaps there is some small attention being paid to Jobless Claims creeping up to their highest non-seasonally adjusted level of the past 5 non-lockdown-impacted years.

“My wife just left me. She says life revolves around baseball and she’s sick of it. I’m quite upset. We were together for 7 seasons.” Say hello to the spring equinox, that astronomical spring in the Northern Hemisphere that occurs when the sun crosses directly over the equator, resulting in nearly equal day and night lengths, and halfway between the day with the least amount of daylight and the day with the most. Rain or shine, the seasons proceed. Rain or shine, data breaches occur (see below). Rain or shine, lenders and vendors are interested in being acquired, acquiring, or merging with culturally similar organizations. This month’s STRATMOR piece is titled, “Mergers and Acquisitions Aren’t Going Away, and In Fact…” And rain or shine, the U.S. Federal Reserve is keeping an independent eye on the economy and making sure it is stable. Yesterday the “Fed” did… nothing. (More below in capital markets.) Vice Capital’s Chris Bennet will be on The Big Picture today at 3PM ET to discuss the Federal Reserve, the link between current and future yields, and why rates are where they are. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CoreLogic. Whether it’s using cash to purchase a home, debt consolidation, or a straight cash-out refinance, CoreLogic’s Precision Marketing’s data-driven insights pinpoint your best opportunities to retain and recapture your clients. Today’s has an interview with Simple Lending Financial’s Janine Cascio on her journey from breaking into the mortgage industry to founding her own company, reflecting on the challenges and triumphs along the way, and offering valuable advice for women looking to advance their careers and break barriers in the industry.)