It seems that we’ve seen slight variations on the same peace deal news for the past several days. That’s probably because there is an actual peace deal that’s probably near the actual finish line and that’s probably why the market is actually willing to trade it. This morning’s headlines were as simple as any recent example: Iran’s state TV obtained a draft of the peace framework with the key inclusion being a commitment to restoring commercial traffic through Hormuz within one month. Bond yields dropped about 2bps on the news and MBS rallied about an eighth of a point–fairly tame, but clearly connected.

Home prices rose 0.7% annually in March, down from a 0.8% increase in the previous month, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index.

Certain private-label securities may get a lower risk weighting for bank capital and separately, second liens have new uniform guidelines for TRID.

Current CEO Rick Thornberry is retiring as Radian shifts to a multi-line business, with former Mr. Cooper President Mike Weinbach taking over on Aug. 13.

Insurance claims dropped in 2025, but covered loss amounts didn’t follow, largely due to the severity of the Southern California wildfires, Rate reported.

Crude oil futures dropped sharply Sunday, triggering bullish Treasury gaps. The head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage writes about what it means for yields.

Good Reminder That The Market Gets to Decide What Matters

If oil, Treasuries, stocks, and the rest of the market were completely closed, and if we could only estimate the probable impact of the news that’s been available over the past 3 days, it would be hard to make that case that bond yields should be any lower than they were on Friday. In fact, some of the newswires (the ones citing various military clashes) might lead one to suspect yields should be higher. But here we are with 10s down more than 6bps and MBS up almost half a point just after 3pm ET–a good reminder that the market gets to decide what to make of the available news.

Econ Data / Events

Philly Fed Non Manufacturing

-23.6 vs -13.0 f’cast

Chicago Fed Activity Index

.14 vs -.03

Market Movement Recap

08:43 AM Overnight peace optimism gains holding. MBS up half a point and 10yr down 8bps at 4.482

11:02 AM Off best levels. MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.6bps at 4.502

02:45 PM Modest recovery. MBS up 14 ticks (.44) and 10yr down 6.1bps at 4.498

The shift gathered pace at the most recent policy meeting in April, when three voters on the Federal Open Market Committee voted against the decision to hold rates steady.

The lender, in addressing claims first raised by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, said its activities are protected by safe harbor provisions.

Residential construction activity was mixed again in April, as building permits rebounded while housing starts pulled back modestly from March’s stronger pace. The latest Census Bureau data continues to reflect a construction sector navigating uneven demand and affordability pressures. Privately owned housing starts fell 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.465 million , down from March’s revised 1.507 million pace. Despite the monthly decline, starts were still 4.6% higher than April 2025 levels. Single-family starts dropped 9.0% to 930k, while multifamily starts (buildings with five units or more) increased to 529k. On the permitting side, activity recovered after March’s sharp decline. Total building permits rose 5.8% to an annual rate of 1.442 million , though that was still 0.2% below year-ago levels. Single-family permits declined 2.6% to 872k, while multifamily authorizations climbed to 514k. As is often the case with this data series, month-to-month swings can exaggerate the underlying trend. More broadly, residential construction activity has remained relatively stable over the past year, with builders continuing to balance elevated financing costs, affordability challenges, and uneven buyer demand. In fact, if we smooth the data with a simple 3-month moving average, it’s easier to see a decent little rebound from the long term lows last Fall. In this light, housing starts are the strongest they’ve been since early 2024.