MBS Optimization, Non-Del Non-QM, Fraud, Realtor Tools; STRATMOR on Momentum; Jamie Dimon, AI, and Markets

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Best Week For Mortgage Rates in Years

Given that we have the somewhat unpopular job of reporting that today’s average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is 6.00 again, rather than the 5.99 seen earlier this week, we can at least find one glowingly positive development as a silver lining. In fact, the silver lining is more than a consolation prize. It’s actually better news than another day at 5.99% would have been.  First off, there’s no functional difference between 6.00 and 5.99 when it comes to our daily rate index. A vast majority (95%+) of borrowers would see the exact same rate quotes on either day. As such, it’s far better news that the daily average has been 5.995 over the past 4 days (2 days at 6.00 and 2 at 5.99). That’s easily the lowest weekly average in more than 3 years, and the stability means that more borrowers are able to hear that news and act accordingly.  NOTE: if you happen to see separate news today regarding rates hitting 5.98%, that would be coverage of Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. You can use the chart below to explore long-term comparisons between our daily average, Freddie Mac, and MBA. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Back to The Stronger End of The Range

This is the problem with narrow trading ranges. Yesterday, yields were safely inside a narrow range near long-term lows. Today, they’re challenging the lowest levels since November. Any time we’re at the best levels in months, it’s normal to want to know why, but because of the narrow range, there isn’t really a new “why” for today’s share of the move. After all, 10yr yields are down less than 3bps, which is a below average move in the big picture. We can’t blame data as there isn’t a compelling option there. If we’re still desperate for a scapegoat, it may not be perfect, but there is enough correlation with the stock market’s struggle to make new highs that we can at least consider it.
Today’s chart shows how stocks have slipped from all-time highs and how bonds have benefited with every instance of significant slippage.

The 2nd chart is just for bigger picture perspective. 

In-Range PM Weakness

In-Range PM Weakness

Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile session for the bond market.  Weaker opening levels in Treasuries gave way to a mid-day rally that nearly got rates back to unchanged levels. But the afternoon saw steady selling that took bonds to their weakest levels of the session. In the bigger picture, this was a non-event as it leaves trading levels well within the prevailing range. Additionally, there were no compelling justifications for the move unless we want to continue to force the narrative of higher stocks prices leading to higher bond yields (where the correlation has been anything but reliable).

Econ Data / Events

MBA Purchase Index (Feb)/20

149.7 vs — f’cast, 157.1 prev

MBA Refi Index (Feb)/20

1432.9 vs — f’cast, 1375.9 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:58 AM Steadily but modestly weaker overnight. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.05

11:31 AM MBS unchanged and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.042

01:46 PM MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.6bps at 4.041

Re-Settling Into Same Narrow Range Amid Lack of Data

Some days, there’s a lot to say about what’s going on in the bond market. Other days are like today. Analysts have to lean on themes like trading ranges, technicals, and the asset allocation trade (buy stocks / sell bonds, and vice versa). Incidentally, those default explanations continue to hold some water with 10yr yields once again hesitant to push below 4.0% this week and a slow recover in stocks possibly pulling yields a bit higher.  We can also consider a bit of concessionary trading ahead of the 5yr Treasury auction (accounts abstaining from buying now because they have to buy later).