Some days, there’s a lot to say about what’s going on in the bond market. Other days are like today. Analysts have to lean on themes like trading ranges, technicals, and the asset allocation trade (buy stocks / sell bonds, and vice versa). Incidentally, those default explanations continue to hold some water with 10yr yields once again hesitant to push below 4.0% this week and a slow recover in stocks possibly pulling yields a bit higher.  We can also consider a bit of concessionary trading ahead of the 5yr Treasury auction (accounts abstaining from buying now because they have to buy later).

It is no secret that Congress and regulators have trouble keeping up with technology. But is an AI “conversation” with a borrower any different than a questionnaire given to that same borrower? Will the line be drawn at RESPA items? Can regulators audit transcripts of AI “conversations” without court orders? (One way to have the “inside scoop” on issues like this and others is to register for MBA’s National Advocacy Conference (NAC) this April. The early bird special ends Monday, March 2. It’s the industry’s largest advocacy event and the most effective way to represent your state at the national level.) Mark Weber predicts, “We will see a ‘credential implosion’ in mortgage banking. A person shopping for a mortgage can ask Ai about the best loan scenarios and for loan structuring assistance. Why bother with the credential of Certified Mortgage Planner with all those hours studying and human licensing to originate mortgages? Why would the mortgage industry want to protect human capital through regulation? Every knowledge industry is set up for major disruption.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by FirstClose, a leading home equity technology platform that combines digital application, automated workflows, integrated vendor management, and seamless LOS connectivity, to turn home equity into a scalable, predictable growth engine. Hear an interview with Optimal Blue’s Erin Wester on the extensive lineup of mortgage capital markets innovations unveiled at 2026 Optimal Blue Summit, including an industry-first AI/ML-powered forecasting tool.)

It may not be as glamorous as being able to say mortgage rates are “in the 5s,” but at 6.00%, today’s MND rate index is a mere 0.01% higher than yesterday’s multi-year low.  For all practical purposes, this means the average borrower will see almost exactly the same rates as yesterday.  In many cases, the quotes will be exactly the same.  There were no big ticket market movers on the econ calendar and no major headlines that caused any appreciable volatility in the bond market (bonds dictate mortgage rates).  In general, the entire week is very quiet in terms of those potential market movers. Rates would need to see a shift in important economic reports before committing to their next major move. 

The Federal Housing Finance Agency said it is reviewing more than 9,000 pages of records tied to fraud tips submitted through a hotline launched last April.

Judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia struggled to find a resolution to an injunction issued last year that halted reductions-in-force by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said AI could boost productivity, but warned the transition may raise unemployment and force difficult tradeoffs between inflation and jobs.

Nearly 14% of homes that went under contract last month were cancelled, up from 13.1% last year and the highest January share in records, according to Redfin.

The agreement between servicing technology platform Vertyx and Great Lakes Credit Union arrives as the mortgage industry sets its focus on borrower retention.

Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory

MBS may not be quite as high as they were yesterday, but in the bigger picture, today’s levels are right in line with the best we’ve seen in more than 3 years. More importantly, mortgage rates are verifiably at the best levels in more than 3 years. There was no major volatility or any remarkable econ data. Tomorrow’s calendar is similarly quiet. Stock/bond correlations broke down in the afternoon, but as bonds search for any sources of guidance, that correlation could certainly return if stocks are making bigger moves.

Econ Data / Events

ADP Weekly Payrolls

12.75k vs 10.25k prev

Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Dec)

1.4% vs 1.4% f’cast, 1.4% prev

CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Dec)

-0.1% vs — f’cast, 0% prev

FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Dec)

0.1% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.6% prev

FHFA Home Prices y/y (Dec)

1.8% vs — f’cast, 1.9% prev

Consumer Confidence

91.2 vs 87.0 f’cast, 89.0 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:57 AM Mostly flat overnight and not much movement so far. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.8bps at 4.04

01:49 PM Modest recover after AM weakness. MBS down 1 tick (.03) again after being down 3 ticks (.09) at 10am. 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.030

03:47 PM Losing ground modestly into PM.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.038

Volume and volatility is lower this morning compared to yesterday, but the same theme of risk aversion looks to be in play, probably.  Why “probably?” Because the theme in question (risk aversion, or what we sometimes refer to as the “stock lever”) oftentimes makes it hard to distinguish between correlation and causality. All we know so far today is that both stocks and bond yields are sightly higher from yesterday’s lows and have been generally sideways so far today. The econ calendar remains light in terms of importance, despite plenty of line items.