Fraud Guard, Capital Markets Data, QC, POS Products; PHH and OptiFunder News; Non-Agency

Technology is a two-edged sword. Have you ever heard of “surveillance pricing?” “Big brother” knows a lot about you. Ridesharing companies like Uber, for instance, can charge users more when they have lower battery life on their phone. “Democrats in Pennsylvania have introduced a bill that would stop retailers from changing the price of essential goods and services in a given 24 hour period.” I’d like to know what “essential” means. When computers and data go awry, look out. And when you combine that with regulators and the U.S. Government, problems can be all-consuming. “Credit Bureaus Are Leaving More Mistakes on Frustrated Consumers’ Reports Under Trump’s CFPB” is making its way around our biz. Credit, and the companies that report that information, will certainly be a topic on today’s Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET, presented by Lenders One, featuring Matt Van Fossen. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Floify, an industry-leading point of sale platform. The Dynamic Apps 2.0 AI-powered enhancement lets lenders tailor application flows by loan type, leading to higher completion rates, less operational back-and-forth and specialty lending without the one-size-fits-all compromise. Hear an interview with Floify’s Jason Mapes on automating tasks like data extraction, document validation, and 1003 completion within the POS, enabling lenders to deliver faster, cleaner, and more compliant loan files without introducing risky borrower-facing AI interactions.)

Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter?

Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter?

Days like today are a problem for a “set it and forget it” mentality when it comes to energy prices and the bond market. On many occasions since the beginning of last week, the correlation between oil prices and bond yields has been plain to see. Additionally, oil price volatility has been the only way to explain much of the movement in bonds. Now this afternoon, bond yields broke higher despite no clear cues from oil. We are left to lean on things like a weak 3yr Treasury auction and general supply pressures surrounding a large corporate bond issued by Amazon. Tomorrow brings CPI–usually a relevant market mover, but unlikely to carry as much weight given the current backdrop.

Econ Data / Events

ADP Weekly Employment

15.5k vs 12.75k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:56 AM Weaker overnight vs Monday’s late-day rally levels.  Stronger vs 3pm close. 10yr at 4.124. MBS down 19bps from 5pm, but up a few bps vs 3pm.

09:54 AM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.12 

12:17 PM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.112

03:22 PM MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.142