Bonds Calmed Down After Early Weakness

Bonds Calmed Down After Early Weakness

This week’s relevant economic data is concentrated over the Tue-Thu time frame with Wednesday’s CPI being the most obvious headliner. Today’s session offered little by way of new information but nonetheless provided some insight as to how the market would approach this week’s data. In a nutshell, bonds remain defensive. The burden of proof remains on weaker economic data or lower inflation if we’re hoping to make a case for lower rates. “Dip buyers” are not looking eager to to step in front of the train of generally weaker momentum.  All that having been said, things certainly could have been worse today and it was some small solace that bonds leveled off after early weakness and ended up almost sideways on the day.

Econ Data / Events

Nonfarm Payrolls

256k vs 160k f’cast, 227k prev

Unemployment Rate

4.1 vs 4.2 f’cast, 4.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:23 AM Slightly weaker overnight but back near unchanged now. MBS unchanged. 10yr up 0.3bps at 4.767

11:21 AM Lows of the day, down an eighth in MBS.  10yr yields up 4bps at 4.805

02:08 PM Bouncing back to nearly unchanged territory.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.779

04:05 PM Sideways since the last update.  MBS down 2 ticks and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.789

Mortgage Rates Jump Sharply Higher After Jobs Report

Mortgage rates were already at 6 month highs earlier this week so it didn’t take much of a push to send them up to new 7 month highs today. The push in question came from today’s hotly-anticipated jobs report. No other economic report has as much consistent potential to cause volatility for interest rates.  As such, when today’s job creation headline came in at much higher levels than expected, it was an easy decision for traders to push rates to higher levels. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate was closer to 7.125% yesterday. After today’s route, that rate is now almost perfectly centered on the 7.25% level (mortgage rates are typically offered in 0.125% increments). These are the highest levels since May 2024. From here, the pain could continue if next week’s data sings a similar tune. While not as consistent a market mover as the jobs report, Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the only other economic report that’s in the same league. A particularly balmy inflation reading could easily push rates up another 0.125%–possibly more.  Conversely, a sharply lower inflation reading could be worth just as much of a recovery.