While there was certainly plenty of volatility elsewhere in the financial market this week, there was almost none to be found in mortgage rates. Wed, Thu, and Fri all recorded the exact same level in MND’s 30yr fixed rate index–something that only happens a few times every year. Rates are based on bonds and bonds are waiting for more serious inspiration after undergoing a bit of elevated volatility at the beginning of last week. The present week has been all about consolidating and settling into a narrower range as we wait for the more important economic data on deck next week.

There’s a lot of sensible thinking going on out there in our biz. Yesterday in the Thought Leadership section, attorney Mitch Kider addressed the “Rule of Law” and what he believes is important to the industry. In a new article featured in Chrisman Commentary’s Thought Leadership, David Spector challenges the rate-centric view of housing affordability, arguing that the real strain comes from a tight housing supply pipeline, local zoning and permitting roadblocks, and tax policies that shape who can afford to own versus invest. He examines how transaction costs, insurance, property taxes, and operational inefficiencies quietly inflate monthly payments, and why lowering mortgage origination friction, modernizing appraisal and title practices, and revisiting pricing policies could meaningfully ease borrower burden without adding risk. Read the full article to unpack where these pressures originate and what coordinated changes could shift the trajectory. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with Prudent AI’s Suha Zehl on moving certainty to the front of the lending process to reduce operational friction, eliminate late-stage surprises, and allow lenders to scale volume, protect margins, and serve complex borrowers without adding staff.)

Competition that impacted margins and prepayments in excess of expectations were challenges during the period, but executives report first quarter improvement.

Analysts estimate Pennymac, Rocket, UWM and Loandepot will post an improved earnings per share and total loan origination volume than the same time a year prior.

Even with the 4 basis point rise in the 30-year fixed over the past two weeks, mortgage rates are still hovering near three-year lows, Freddie Mac said.

Stop chasing digital leads and invest in face-to-face partnerships that build trust and referrals sustainable growth, writes a leader of Choice Mortgage Group.

VA- and FHA-backed mortgages helped drive the increase in property volume, but sales did not maintain the same pace, according to Auction.com.

Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped

Bonds began the day with a bit of selling pressure.  It was almost too small to draw much attention to. MBS never dropped below yesterday’s lows and 10yr yields merely moved back up to overnight highs (also, no higher than yesterday’s highs). In other words, it was “in-range weakness”–the kind of thing we often view as incidental and inconsequential. Shortly after the 9:30am NYSE open, stocks tanked hard along with several of the recently volatile commodities. Bonds benefited from that selling, but didn’t lose any ground after the stock/commodities move reversed.

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Jan)/17

1,827K vs 1860K f’cast, 1849K prev

Jobless Claims (Jan)/24

209K vs 205K f’cast, 200K prev

Market Movement Recap

08:40 AM No reaction to AM econ data.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.246.

09:51 AM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.253 after mystery, mini-sell-off levels off. 

01:09 PM No reaction to 7yr auction. 10yr yield down 1bp at 4.233 and MBS unchanged. 

03:39 PM Sideways near stronger levels in Treasuries with 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.228.  MBS roughly unchanged.

Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit.  Those two things may seem like they’re clearly connected, but the selling didn’t start for another 15 minutes after the data and the most noticeable selling has taken place in the past 15 minutes (almost a full hour after the data). As for a scapegoat for that selling, there’s only conjecture. We can see surging commodities prices coinciding with Treasury sales, but we wouldn’t leap to the assumption that traders are selling bonds to buy commodities.  In any event, the damage is fairly limited in the big picture.  One could simply say this is an ongoing rejection of 10yr yields re-entering the previous trading range. 

Fans of MASH know that Alan Alda turned 90 yesterday, and the remaining actors from the show joined him on the beach. When you reach a certain age you don’t care about the employment picture. Amazon laying off another 16,000, as announced this week, won’t help anyone’s “the economy is doing great” argument. As economist Elliot Eisenberg points out, “The most disturbing piece of information from last week’s income data is the confirmation of a complete lack of income growth over the past 12 months. During 11/24, real (after inflation) disposable (after taxes) per capita personal income was $52,324 and during 11/25 it was $52,557. Additionally, job growth over those 12 months was an anemic 857,000, or half a percent and declining, the lowest growth rate since 11/2010.” Certainly how economics impact lenders will be a topic on today’s The Big Picture at 3PM ET with guest Better.com CEO Vishal Garg for a wide-ranging conversation on the evolution of Better, what AI-powered mortgage looks like in practice, scaling to $100 billion in volume, the One Day Mortgage, blending technology with local origination, rebuilding culture and trust, and how leadership teams should be positioning for the next turn in the housing cycle. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with Sitewire’s Bryan Kester that includes an exploration of how permitting friction, underestimated rehab complexity, and weak pre-funding diligence (not land or labor) have become the true constraints on housing supply, and what smarter underwriting and process discipline look like as the market adapts.)