Before this morning’s jobs report was released, mortgage rates were on track to end the week at their highest levels in several weeks. This was due to an ongoing mega-spike in oil prices spilling over to the bond market (higher oil = higher inflation implications, and bonds hate inflation). The jobs report saved the day, albeit in a morbid way. It was one of the weakest jobs reports in years with unemployment continuing to trend higher and the job count falling deeply into negative territory. The jobs market is the only thing as important to bonds as inflation, and job market weakness tends to push rates lower. Bonds recovered back to levels that were right in line with yesterday, thus allowing most mortgage lenders to adjust their rate offerings accordingly.

It’s shaping up to be a frustrating day market watchers. Decades of experience tells us that bonds should rally fairly sharply on a day where nonfarm payrolls miss the forecast by the widest margin in more than a year.  At -92k vs +59k, today fits that bill.  And like you’d expect, bonds rallied sharply right at 8:30am ET. But the rally was short-lived and it’s not a huge surprise.
That’s not a hindsight assessment either.  It was actually our first analytical reaction. Reason being: the unemployment rate carries more weight than NFP these days, and it was only up to 4.4% from 4.3% last month. Beyond that, we can consider the payroll count was distorted by health care strikes (and noted by BLS at the top of the report). With health care doing so much heavy lifting, the impact on NFP can’t be overstated.

Finally, away from the data, we have the ongoing surge in oil prices which kicked into even higher gear today. At this point, inflation implications can’t be ignored. We normally push back on the oil vs 10yr correlation because it’s so frequently irrelevant–especially over the shortest time horizons.  The scope of movement can also be very mismatched, even when correlation is present. For evidence, look no further than the long-term chart.

But in the medium-short term, the correlation is definitely causing problems for bonds. After all, even a weak correlation is going to hurt when oil is moving this sharply–especially if it’s moving for reasons that also imply additional Treasury issuance. 

Officially winter ends on 3/19, as the Spring Equinox is 3/20. Most modern clocks these days auto-update when daylight savings begins/ends. So, Sunday morning I’ll be walking around my house thinking, “Wow… times have changed.” This Sunday many places will be changing their clocks and springing ahead. This will, once again, lead to the public asking politicians to do away with changing clocks, with stories of bad traffic and grumpy students. For something new, the Federal Reserve Board announced the termination of its 2018 enforcement action against Wells Fargo, following its determination that the bank had met all required conditions. Recall that Wells’ asset cap was lifted last June. Does this mean that “The Coach” is destined to open up a correspondent channel? Probably not, but if the risk & reward stars align, who knows… especially with solid business. According to Curinos’ proprietary application index, February 2026 funded mortgage volume increased 35 percent YoY and increased 2 percent MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in February 2026 was 6.07, 9bps lower than January 2026 and 81bps lower than the same month last year. Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Feewise, which turns mortgage compliance from bottleneck to business accelerator. Handle all the complexities involved with establishing TRID compliant fees and disclosures, achieve sign off, and deliver packages to your consumers for review or signature. Hear an interview with FICO’s Julie May on how lender risk behavior is evolving, what is driving the growing adoption of trended data, and how new distribution models could reshape credit scoring across the mortgage industry.)

Mortgage application activity surged last week in response to headlines of mortgage rates stably holding multi-year lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an increase of 11.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 27. Refi applications once again led the charge, jumping 14.3% from the previous week and 109% higher vs the same week one year ago. Conventional refi apps rose 20% for the week, marking the fourth consecutive weekly increase and the strongest pace since 2022. Purchase demand also strengthened. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6.1% from one week earlier and was 10% higher than the same week one year ago. Lower rates and a gradual improvement in housing inventory continue to support buyer activity as the spring market approaches. The composition of activity shifted further toward refinances. The refinance share of total applications increased to 59.8% from 58.6% the prior week, while ARM share rose to 8.8% . FHA share decreased to 15.8% , VA share declined to 17.1% , and USDA share remained unchanged at 0.4% . Notably, the present week has seen a significant shift in rates with the average lender jumping back to early February levels.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Many homeowners and first-time buyers are surprised by rising property taxes and insurance, which can sharply increase monthly mortgage costs beyond principal and interest.

The announcement drove a large increase in Better’s stock price, but UWM, Rocket and Pennymac all saw any gains earlier in the day more than dissipate.

The top employers in home lending value business partners with a large market share and reach but they also need to differentiate themselves.

While this only shows a 2-basis-point rise in the 30-year fixed since last week, the Lender Price product and pricing engine data is 30 basis points higher.

Median rents rose at a greater rate than median sales prices in 55% of the 416 counties with sufficient data between 2025 and 2026, Attom found.

Here in Park City, at the annual mortgage ski trip, some of the banter is social, and some is focused on business. On the business side of things, one topic is the nearly 1 million people impacted by hackers attacking Figure Technology Solutions, a blockchain-focused fintech lender. U.S. financial institutions are increasing cybersecurity vigilance amid the escalating war with Iran, with industry leaders warning that geopolitical conflict often brings a rise in digital threats. Todd Klessman, managing director for financial services cyber and technology at SIFMA, said, “The industry remains vigilant and ready to respond to cyber threats at all times, and especially when global cybersecurity risks are heightened.” While we’re on technology, the industry continues to wonder if there will be any limits on artificial intelligence (AI), and in an Insellerate webinar today at 10AM PT (1PM ET) they will discuss how top lenders are pre-positioning for refinances with AI and how to prepare for the next refi cycle without over hiring, overreacting, or missing the window. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Feewise, which turns mortgage compliance from bottleneck to business accelerator. Handle all the complexities involved with establishing TRID compliant fees and disclosures, achieve sign off, and deliver packages to your consumers for review or signature. Hear an interview with Feewise’s Rob Withers on enhancing tech stacks through a disclosure manufacturing solution that works at the speed of sales.)