Some would say there were warning signs, such as last week’s Chicago PMI surging to the 2nd highest level since 2022, but that was generally dismissed as a noisy outlier in a data set that is volatility-prone. In this case, however, Chicago PMI was prescient. Today’s ISM Manufacturing data surged to the highest level since 2022, both in terms of the headline and new orders. Even though this report isn’t as much of a market mover as the non-manufacturing version, this is a big enough beat to make an exception. Bonds are clearly responding, and not in a rate-friendly way.

There are lots of rumors about more M&A. For example, Maxwell, a POS and mortgage origination services company, being acquired by Place, a real estate tech platform and real estate brokerage company. Place (with its Mortgage Calculator App) is rumored to be heavily involved (owns?) Envoy Mortgage. Word in the hallways that Place, and others, will continue to strive toward creating end-to-end platforms of real estate through mortgage origination. Sure enough, on today’s Now Next Later at 1PM ET, presented by Depth, Eric Lapin of Finfusion Consulting will join the conversation on emerging technology in mortgage, with a focus on blockchain and whether it is a friend or foe for lenders. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s features an interview with FundingShield’s Adam Chaudhary on why escalating fraud, regulatory scrutiny, and refinance activity are making proactive, real-time verification essential for lenders.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Close more deals and open the door to more buyers with up to 75 BPS Price Improvement on February Specials from LendingPros! Non-QM Price Improvement (includes DSCR 5-8 Units and Jumbo), up to 75 BPS with Select or 25 BPS without. Plus 37.5 BPS Price Improvement on FHA DPA Pro loans (includes Streamlines; excludes Select, CalHFA) plus 12.5 BPS price improvement on FHA Select Loans (FHA and DPA Pro Specials cannot be combined with Select)! Learn More: Want to dive deeper on DPA Programs? Join LendingPros’ upcoming DPA webinar, where you’ll get the latest updates on new terms and options, plus a helpful refresher on the upcoming CalHFA Dream For All Program for California brokers so you’re fully prepared to guide your clients to the finish line. Register yourself or your team today and reserve your spot!

Preemption would hurt affordability for many, the Conference of State Banking Supervisors and the American Association of Residential Mortgage Regulators said.

Michael Strauss faces massive Sprout liabilities as his wife and a former associate launch a new mortgage firm, raising questions about ties to the fallen lender.

Fourth quarter pretax income of $900,000 and net income of $656,000 for the segment compared with year ago losses of $625,000 and $197,000 respectively.

The high court, without comment, refused Emigrant Mortgage’s appeal of a verdict holding it liable for no income, no asset verification loans to minorities.

Primelending produced a pretax loss of $5.2 million in the fourth quarter, significantly lower than the loss of $15.9 million in the same period a year earlier.

Mortgage application activity retreated a bit last week following two weeks of unusually strong volume, although holiday timing played a meaningful role in the weekly comparison. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications fell 8.5% for the week ending January 23, giving back a portion of the recent surge. The Market Composite Index declined 8.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis and was down 16% on an unadjusted basis, reflecting both the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday adjustment and a market that has shown wide week-to-week swings after extended periods of low activity. Refinance volume saw the largest pullback. The Refinance Index declined 16% from the prior week, though applications remained 156% higher than the same week one year ago. Even with the latest decline, refinance demand continues to run well above last year’s levels following January’s earlier burst of activity. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist said, “With rates holding in the 6 percent range, the refinance market is likely to remain sensitive to week-to-week rate movements.” Purchase activity was comparatively steady. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index dipped just 0.4% , while unadjusted purchase applications fell 4% on the week but remained 18% higher than the same period last year—continuing to suggest that buyer engagement has been more stable than refinance demand at the start of 2026.

Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home price indices released November data this week, and the combined message is that home price appreciation continues doing better than it had been in the middle of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index paints clearest picture with seasonally adjusted home prices up 0.6% month-over-month in November and 1.9% year-over-year .  This is the 2nd month in a row with price appreciation at the highest levels in more than a year. Both data sets highlight regional differences. Monthly price changes ranged from flat in the Middle Atlantic to +1.1% in the East South Central division. Over the past year, prices declined 0.4% in the Pacific division but climbed as much as 5.1% in the East North Central region—broadly echoing Case-Shiller’s Midwest-versus-Sun-Belt divide. The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 1.4% year-over-year gain in November, unchanged from October. While this is one of the lowest readings of the past several years, it’s also one of the first time the index moved higher from the previous month in more than a year.   On a month-to-month basis, the seasonally adjusted index rose 0.4% . The 20-City Composite posted a 1.4% annual gain , up slightly from 1.3% previously, and increased 0.5% month-over-month after seasonal adjustment.

While there was certainly plenty of volatility elsewhere in the financial market this week, there was almost none to be found in mortgage rates. Wed, Thu, and Fri all recorded the exact same level in MND’s 30yr fixed rate index–something that only happens a few times every year. Rates are based on bonds and bonds are waiting for more serious inspiration after undergoing a bit of elevated volatility at the beginning of last week. The present week has been all about consolidating and settling into a narrower range as we wait for the more important economic data on deck next week.