Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and that bonds care about employment data. There are quite a few different economic reports that focus on various employment metrics. Next Wednesday’s jobs report is the biggest ticket by far, but other reports can move the needle at times–especially when they fall far from forecasts or previous readings. This was the case with three separate reports today.  One of them almost never gets covered in the news, but it showed planned layoffs at large firms were the third highest since 2020. The second was the weekly jobless claims report, which finally ticked up to slightly higher levels after coming in lower than average over the past few weeks. Garnering the biggest reaction was the Job Openings data for December, which showed the lowest levels since September 2020–much lower than forecast for today. The bond market was surprisingly willing to respond.  There was even a noticeable shift in Fed rate cut expectations (not that this should be confused for anything that impacts mortgage rates!).  The average lender moved back to the lowest levels of the week after spending the last 2 days at 2-week highs.  Caveat: the 2 week range is very narrow (6.15-6.20). [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data

Bonds went on a bit of a buying spree on Thursday. It was the biggest rally day since November, at least, and that’s impressive given the motivations. Specifically, there was a trifecta of downbeat labor market reports (Challenger, Jobless Claims, and Job Openings). Individually, none of these are worth a third of the move we saw today, but the whole was greater than the sum of its parts.  There’s also a 4th report being traded today: next week’s big jobs report. In other words, between yesterday’s ISM employment numbers and today’s reports, traders are taking a cautious lead-off ahead of the big jobs report. This raises the stakes for volatility next Wednesday morning. 

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Jan)/24

1,844K vs 1850K f’cast, 1827K prev

Jobless Claims (Jan)/31

231K vs 212K f’cast, 209K prev

Market Movement Recap

08:32 AM Modestly stronger overnight with additional gains after AM data.  MBS up almost an eighth and 10yr down 4bps at 4.24

10:06 AM Additional gains after JOLTS data with 10yr down 5 bps at 4.228 and MBS up 5 ticks (.16).

01:09 PM Best levels of the day. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 7.1bps at 4.207

Bonds were incidentally and inconsequentially stronger to start the overnight session, but began to see better gains after 7am ET. There were two notable bumps in volume after the 7:30am Challenger job cut data and the 8:30am Jobless Claims data.  Of the two, the latter was much more clearly linked to gains.  Challenger definitely got a small volume bump, but it’s hard to say that the gains weren’t already in progress when it came out.  The morning’s labor market data will be rounded out by the report with the biggest potential (emphasis on “potential”) reaction: Job Openings at 10am ET.

Yup, another competitor for lenders come July: Bed Bath & Beyond is acquiring Tokens.com “to develop a blockchain-based investment and personal finance platform” and will use tools from tZERO and integrate with blockchain firm Figure to offer services such as mortgages and renovation loans. Indeed, mergers, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships are alive and well, ranging from branches moving to talk of more headline-grabbing deals ahead. Welcome to the club, Bed, Bath, and Beyond, I think you’ll find it a confusing industry… there isn’t a lot of policy shaping selling household wares in comparison. Speaking of which, on today’s The Big Picture at 3PM ET Bob Broeksmit, President and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association, will be on for a candid conversation on the forces shaping housing finance policy, the happenings in Washington DC, regulatory priorities, and what lenders should expect next. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s features an interview with Truework’s Ethan Winchell on the intersection of technology and use, and how designing platforms for the mortgage industry has shifted toward practical application.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders

Shaw, which was part of last year’s standstill agreement with Third Point, said it will support shareholder-driven change on Costar’s board.

In a contentious House Financial Services Committee oversight hearing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sidestepped questions on the Trump family crypto conflicts of interest and inflation with pugnacious responses to Democratic lawmakers’ questions.

Home equity investment platforms continue to attract dollars from the venture capital community but also face a proposed de facto ban in one state.

Despite a weak ADP jobs print, Treasury yields went nowhere, reinforcing a growing bearish, defensive case for rates, according to the CEO of IF Securities.

Shore Capital Partners, a Chicago-based private equity firm founded by billionaire Justin Ishbia, has raised more than $400 million for its second industrial fund.

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