A Very Easy Explanation For MBS Underperformance

The day begins with MBS in slightly weaker territory while Treasuries are slightly stronger.  The discrepancy isn’t really big enough to merit any urgent explanation, but either way, there are several.  First off, there was a group of after-the-bell trades in MBS last night (around 5:02pm) that set artificially high ‘previous close’ prices.  A quick look at the chart suggests MBS are slightly stronger than anything seen yesterday.

Still, if we had to justify legitimate underperformance it would be as easy as pointing to the general outperformance of MBS last week.  Treasuries were clearly making room for Treasury auctions and have had some room to recovery since then. 

Last but not least, since it’s the last day of the year, one could always say Treasuries are benefiting more from month/year/quarter-end positioning, but that’s overkill in this scenario. 

NY Eve ’24: Demographics of Wealth; Thought Leadership on Pipeline Pricing; a Primer on Lock Extensions

Besides being enthralled with Tiger King and My Octopus Teacher four years ago, what do AL, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, MD, MA, NJ, NY, NM, NC, RI, SC, TN, VT, and VA have in common? First-cousin marriage remains completely legal in these 17 states. Demographics are of great interest to lenders and originators. As of 2024, there were 65 million Baby Boomers, accounting for 20 percent of the U.S. population and 36 percent of total homeowner households, and about 83 million Millennials (born between 1982 and 2000). Total household net worth has increased by approximately $44 trillion, or $332,000 per household since the pandemic (Q4 2019 to Q2 2024). Of that, Boomer overall wealth increased by $19 trillion, or $486,000 per household, half of which is due to house price appreciation. Don’t think for a second that these demographics and statistics have escaped the notice of every reverse mortgage company out there. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by The BIG Point of Sale, which offers a highly configurable, easy to install point of sale solution. Its simplified consumer workflows and web-based portals allow for consumers and loan originators to collaborate with the back-office team to keep everyone informed throughout the loan process. Hear an interview with Rate’s Connie Lindsay on what the SVP of Lending role at a mortgage company entails and how customer experience continues to be an arms race in the mortgage industry.) Software, Products, and Services for Lenders

Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher as Markets Close Early

Major holidays typically involve a full day market closure along with an “early close” on an adjacent day.  This matters to rates because mortgage lenders decide what they can offer based on trading levels in the bond market.  Mortgage lenders also need a certain amount of activity in the market if they hope to set competitive rates. As you might imagine, those “early close” days don’t tend to have as much activity, so lenders aren’t making as many adjustments as normal.  In today’s case, that ended up being helpful as it limited the amount of negative adjustments. Specifically, the average lender began the day in roughly the same territory as yesterday, but the bond market took a turn for the worse a few hours later.  Based on the pace of the weakness in the bond market, the average lender would normally issue a negative reprice (increasing their rates for the day). As it happened, only a small handful of lenders repriced. On one hand, this could mean that Thursday’s rates start out higher.  On the other hand, there’s no way to know where the bond market will open up on Thursday.  Either way, the final or first trading day of any given year can see some excess volatility/momentum for reasons that have nothing to do with the normal motivations (economic data, news, policy changes).

Year-End Trading. No Big Deal

Year-End Trading. No Big Deal

Bonds started stronger but lost ground quickly and inexplicably starting around 10:30am ET. This was a classic example of year-end trading causing random volatility.  It had nothing to do with news, data, or any other typical motivations.  Bonds are now closed for the day/month/year and will be back in action on Thursday.  Happy New Year!

Econ Data / Events

Chicago PMI

36.9 vs 42.5 f’cast, 40.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:31 AM MBS down an eighth and 10yr down 2bps at 4.52

12:22 PM Month-end trading taking a quick toll.  MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.7bps at 4.586

02:18 PM Heading out just off the weakest levels.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.3bps at 4.572