After a strong finish last week, there was some natural risk that short-covering and position squaring added to the gains, thus increasing the chance of some weakness this morning. While that may have been the case at first, things are changing since the 9:30am NYSE open with stock losses once again spilling over to bond market buying.  That’s the only market mover in play so far this morning and there are no other major flashpoints on the calendar. While we will get more scheduled data in the coming days, none of it will be “top tier” until Friday morning’s PCE data.

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Per the latest release from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), both refinance and purchase indices decreased this week. In terms of the change from the previous week, it was the biggest drop so far this year, but not remotely as big as last week of 2024.  Here is the refi index in terms of week-over-week change: And here is the exact same data, but expressed in terms of the outright index: If we’re just focusing on 2025, the chart above doesn’t look too bad for refi demand.  But in case anyone needed to be reminded, the farther back one looks into the past, the more sobering the current levels become–even those seen at last year’s peak. Purchase activity struggled as well, down 6% weekly, just barely beating the drop seen in the first week of the year in terms of week-over-week change. In outright terms, this brings purchase activity back near the middle of its recent range. The following bullet points offer a few highlights of changes in the % share of total activity for various categories: ● FHA Share increased from 16 to 16.6 ● VA Share decreased from 14.6 to 14.2 ● Refi Share decreased from 40.2 to 38.7

Back on December 18th, rates began the day fairly close to where they ended the previous day. In the afternoon, rates surged sharply higher following the Fed announcement. Even since then, the average 30yr fixed rate has operated almost exclusively above 7%.  Rates dipped a pinky toe into the 6% range on Feb 5th and then a few more toes last Friday.  Now today, we’re ending another week with damp digits, right in line with last Friday at the best levels since December 18th.  Today’s improvement was initially driven by weak economic data this morning in the form of S&P Global’s service sector index dropping sharply to the lowest levels since the middle of 2023. Rates tend to benefit from economic weakness. The next leg of the improvement was mainly seen in underlying bond markets, and it came courtesy of a big stock market sell-off.  Stock market weakness has a mixed relationship with bonds/rates.  There are times where they move in unison and other times, in opposite directions.  Today’s version involved organic, heavy selling in stocks which ultimately pushed some investors into the bond market as a safe haven. When investors buy more bonds, rates drop, all other things being equal. These additional gains in the bond market occurred after most mortgage lenders published their initial rates for the day.  Only a handful of lenders dropped their rates in the afternoon in response to the additional bond market gains. 

Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week

Bonds benefited from a one-two punch of economic data and stock market weakness on Friday, eventually helping 10yr yields flirt with their lowest levels since December 18th (Feb 5th and 7th still technically a hair lower). MBS have outperformed over that time, briefly hitting December 13th levels during today’s best moments.  While the morning gains were clearly tied to the S&P PMI data, afternoon gains came courtesy of a flight to safety with investors dumping stocks aggressively. 

Econ Data / Events

S&P Services PMI

49.7 vs 53.0 f’cast, 52.9 prev

S&P Manufacturing PMI

51.6 vs 54.5 f’cast, 51.2 prev

Consumer Sentiment

64.7 vs 67.8 f’cast, 71.1 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:53 AM moderately stronger overnight with additional gains after the PMI data.  MBS up roughly a quarter point and 10yr down 4.5bps at 4.462

01:14 PM Stocks are tanking and pulling bond yields lower (not always the way it works, but that’s how it’s working today). MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 8.8bps at 4.418

04:36 PM MBS still 10 ticks higher (.31). 10yr just off strongest levels, down 7.4bps on the day at 4.432