We’re two days into the 4th quarter of the 2025, two days into another government shutdown, and… companies are relishing their September numbers. I have been hearing from a few companies that had strong performance in September. For example, Union Home Mortgage has been in the news lately, and the company had a record lock month with over 5,000 units and $1.67 billion over all channels. As we noted here a couple of weeks ago, UHM announced the acquisition of the origination assets of Sierra Pacific, whose lock volume totaled $521 million for the month, so combined that puts UHM with a total of $2.18 billion. (The asset acquisition, led by STRATMOR, became official on October 1st.) Residential lending is always changing, and in The Big Picture, today at noon, PT, Dustin Owen, host of The Loan Officer Podcast, will touch on the potential for Fannie and Freddie re-public offerings, explore how the Trump Administration and FHFA could shift the landscape, and dig into hot-button topics like LO comp, and increasing non-QM production. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Spring EQ, one of the nation’s leading non-bank home equity lenders, giving partners more ways to serve customers. Known for speed, service, and innovation, Spring EQ makes tapping into home equity easier. Hear an interview with AHMC’s Matthew VanFossen on his new role as Chair of State and Local for MBA, key agenda items, and how people can get involved with advocacy.) Services, Products, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers

If we’re splitting hairs, today’s mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday’s, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate quote. Our 30yr fixed rate index fell by the smallest increment possible (.01%) and it hasn’t been more than 0.03% away from that level for two weeks. With the Federal government closed, today’s only potentially relevant economic data was not reported. It will be the same story tomorrow, which was originally scheduled to host the release of the jobs report. No other report comes close in terms of relevance to rates. Going without it means the market is largely flying blind until it is eventually released. This doesn’t mean rates can’t move between now and then–only that the overall capacity for volatility is lower until the data returns (likely when gov funding resumes). There are non-government reports that matter as well and tomorrow morning brings this week’s best example with ISM’s Services index.

The first government shutdown since 2019 will slow flood insurance originations and new Small Business Administration loans, though self-funded banking regulators will continue operating as usual.

United Wholesale Mortgage dropped the fees for Title Review and Closing plus to as low as $1,295; it also extended its R/T 90 refi promo for another month.

Department officials pushed back on criticism that a banner on its homepage violated a statute meant to curb partisanship in government operations.

The shutdown started with a flight into treasury bonds, putting downward pressure on financing costs, but several other developments slowed mortgage activity.

The Supreme Court said Wednesday that it would defer President Donald Trump’s request for a stay until after oral arguments scheduled for January 2026, allowing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to remain on the board at least until then.

Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have provided an obvious tailwind. With the government shutdown now confirmed, this will be the week’s only broad payroll data.  It’s certainly not worth nearly as much of a reaction as the jobs report, but it’s definitely worth something.  

Come on… you don’t believe politics and mortgages are separate? Look at politicized government housing agencies: whoever is running HUD, whether it is Bill Pulte or Scott Turner, posted this note on the website. Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that all we had in the news were tariffs and Fed Governor Lisa Cook? (By the way, all the living Fed Chairs have come out in favor of Federal Reserve independence and against the firing. And mortgage occupancy fraud involving her and President Trump’s cabinet members? Here’s the latest.) Starting today, the shutdown has necessitated a furlough of certain federal employees and significant curtailment of certain operations requiring agency staff intervention or action at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Veterans Affairs, and the Department of Agriculture. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) authorities have expired today. The MBA continues to advocate for an extension of NFIP’s authority to avoid disruptions to the housing market, including joining other trade groups in a letter to Congressional leadership. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Spring EQ, one of the nation’s leading non-bank home equity lenders, giving partners more ways to serve customers. Known for speed, service, and innovation, Spring EQ makes tapping into home equity easier. Hear an interview with Spring EQ’s Reno Heine on when and why loan originators should consider HELOC and HELOAN products for clients, key factors in choosing between them, and the future outlook for second mortgages.)

Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take cues from economic data. Employment-related data is particularly important. The monthly jobs report from the Department of Labor is in a league of its own in that regard, and while we won’t get that this week due to the shutdown, this morning brought the release of a similar private sector report.  The ADP Employment report showed the job count dropping by 32k–well short of the forecast for a 50k increase.  In addition, the previous month’s 54k was revised down to -3k. Bonds responded immediately and generally moved back in line with the stronger levels from yesterday morning. As such, mortgage rates were able to start the day right in line with yesterday’s opening levels. The average 30yr fixed rate has been very flat for nearly 2 weeks now. The biggest risk/opportunity for a meaningful change would follow the eventual release of the jobs report, but that date is TBD for now.