The most important-sounding news over the weekend was last night’s subpoena of Fed Chair Powell over statements made to congress regarding the Fed’s building renovations. Bond yields were slightly higher this morning and commentators erroneously connected those dots. There was actually no meaningful movement in either direction when the news hit, but trading volume confirms the news was noticed.

Forex markets also confirmed a reaction with the dollar losing obvious ground vs the Euro, but Treasury futures weren’t well-correlated with that move.  The following chart shows the percent change in EUR/USD and 10yr futures prices (note for the keen observers, the y-axis is inverted such that a lower orange line means lower bond yields and a lower blue line means a weaker dollar).

Weakness crept in gradually in the overnight session and about half of it has been erased in early trading. The net effect is a bond market that continues to operate in the same old range, albeit close to the weaker boundary.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that the median age of first-time homebuyers has increased significantly, reaching 40 years old, compared to 29 years old in 1981. Not only that, but first-time home buyer share has fallen to a historic low of 21 percent. If you’re a lender, do you have the products in your arsenal to take advantage of these demographic shifts? In addition, do you have the technology that your clients prefer? In today’s Now Next Later, at 10AM PT, Jodi Hall and Jeremy Potter will focus on technology and innovation. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Figure. Take advantage of Figure’s technology and products like its fixed HELOC, DSCR loan, piggyback loan, and direct debt paydown, helping you serve more of your existing network and expand into new markets. Hear an interview with Texas MBA’s Erin Dee on the benefits of advocacy at the state association level.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Kick off the New Year with momentum by taking advantage of January 2026 Specials from LendingPros, designed to help you grow your pipeline fast. Enjoy up to 75 BPS in PRICE IMPROVEMENT on Non-QM with the Select product, or 25 BPS without Select, includes DSCR 5–8 unit and Jumbo loans. (Excludes Seconds, Closed End or Stand-Alone) Learn more. Plus, unlock new growth by expanding into global markets with LendingPros’ NEW Foreign National DSCR program. Register now for their informative webinar on January 14th to gain the confidence and insight you need to serve international investors and reach more clients. Sign up yourself or your team today and start the year strong. Contact your LendingPros AE to learn more about our Non-QM loan programs.

Home prices are now something Americans can wager on. Polymarket partnered with Parcl to offer prediction markets tied to housing price indices.

Trump’s proposed $200B MBS purchase briefly tightened mortgage spreads, but analysts question the long-term impact on mortgage rates and GSE balance sheets.

The deal which brings hundreds of thousands of agents under one roof also combines retail lender Guaranteed Rate’s separate joint ventures with each brokerage.

The Senate allowed the nomination of a permanent director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to lapse, giving acting Director Russell Vought more time to lead the agency on a temporary basis.

Lenders shouldn’t expect the latest jobs numbers to yield major monetary policy moves after the unemployment rate came in mostly flat last month, experts say.

On a week where the mortgage market was most likely to experience volatility due to Friday’s jobs report, Thursday afternoon’s surprise announcement of $200bln in GSE MBS (mortgage-backed securities) buying stole the show. This was already juicing the underlying MBS market yesterday afternoon, but traders took the surge to the next level this morning. This matters because MBS dictate mortgage rates.  When MBS are rising/improving/surging/etc., it implies lower rates. MBS had improved so much this morning that the average lender released their best rate sheet since Feb 2, 2023–the lowest level since September 2022.   The caveat is that MBS experienced significant volatility throughout the day and that volatility is likely to continue. As of this afternoon, at least one lender has already bumped rates back up a bit.  If more lenders follow suit, the end of day average rate could move up, but it would still likely be the lowest in at least a year.  Bottom line: the market didn’t have much of a reaction at all to the jobs report. The MBS market continues sorting out a huge reaction to the GSE purchase news. Rates are definitely quite a bit lower. It remains to be seen how much lower they’ll be when the initial volatility settles down–something that will probably require more clarity on the specifics of the MBS buying plan.

Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments

We may have been looking to the jobs report as this week’s biggest potential source of volatility, but that changed on Thursday afternoon after Trump’s $200bln MBS buying announcement. Treasuries have only been able to watch from the sidelines. At one point this morning after the jobs data, Treasuries were several bps weaker while MBS were in the midst of their biggest rally in months (up more than a half point at the time). There was a rapid “distribution” phase following the initial rally, but prices bounced back to end the day up about a quarter point.  Higher coupons are getting no love as they are not assumed to be in fashion as the new buying commences.  Details continue to matter, and we’ll continue to wait for more of them, but based on volume and volatility, MBS traders are taking this very seriously.

Econ Data / Events

Non Farm Payrolls (Dec)

50K vs 60K f’cast, 64K prev

Participation Rate (Dec)

62.4% vs — f’cast, 62.5% prev

Unemployment rate mm (Dec)

4.4% vs 4.5% f’cast, 4.6% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:31 AM Treasuries losing some ground after jobs report.  up 2.2bps at 4.194.  MBS up massively on the day still due to last night’s Trump headlines.

09:30 AM 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.194. MBS still outperforming, but sobering up and now only up 6 ticks (.19). 

09:49 AM Massive MBS volatility. More sobering up.  5.0 coupons now unchanged on the day.  10yr up 2.4bps at 4.195

10:05 AM Volatility continues. MBS back up a quarter point. 10yr up 1bp at 4.182

01:36 PM Volatility Continues. MBS were nearly back to unchanged, but are now back up a quarter point. 10yr down 0.5bps at 4.167

03:40 PM Calming down and holding a more sideways range with MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr near unchanged at 4.174

A frequent topic in this Commentary is how lenders are responsible for only a small portion of the affordability issue. A big hit to affordability is insurance, and thank you to Kevin K. for passing along this story focused on fire resilience and home upgrades and how they may address insurance costs. Trying to plan for natural events is a full-time job that occupies many, as is thinking about the future of technology. On today’s Last Word presented by TRUE at 1PM ET, Brian Vieaux, Courtney Thompson, and Kevin Peranio break down a busy week across mortgage and capital markets, including hot takes on technology amid recent industry shifts. The panel also examines Venezuela’s potential market impact, shares projections for 2026, and wraps with each host offering their word or resolution for the year ahead. (Today’s podcast can be found here. Today’s has interview with loanDepot’s Jeff Dergurahian on the key data shaping 2026 forecasts, challenges to market consensus on rates and volume, and how originators can translate economic uncertainty into trusted, client-centric guidance.) PHH Webinar Series PHH Mortgage is excited to offer free webinars (live and on-demand) on a variety of topics. Next week, they will host two webinars on PHH’s non-Agency product line, FlexIQ. On Tuesday, January 13 at 1 pm EST, “PHH Mortgage Presents: Introduction to FlexIQ,” and on Thursday, January 15 at 12 pm EST, “PHH Mortgage Presents: FlexIQ Bank Statement Essentials.” Register for these courses or view archived courses here.