Mortgage Rates Lower Again As Lenders Catch Up With Bonds

The bond market dictates day to day movement for all manner of interest rates, including mortgages.  On election night, bond yields (another word for “rates”) spiked as soon as traders felt the results were evident.  The following morning, mortgage-backed bonds started out much weaker and mortgage rates were at the highest level in months. Fast forward two days and mortgage rates are back below 7% and at the lowest levels since October 25th.  While that’s not an exceptional leap into the past, it’s certainly better than a continued move to infinity and beyond.  What gives?! In not so many words, not much.  The bond market had rushed to get into position for the election, and the reaction to election night itself ended up being a mere formality that was quickly erased–a testament to how accurately the market predicted where it would have wanted to be WELL in advance. Today’s rate improvement wasn’t as much a factor of bond market gains as it was mortgage lenders getting caught up to the gains from yesterday.  Lenders have been understandably cautious given the big swings in bonds and the prospect for additional volatility.  At times like this, it’s not uncommon for lenders to wait a bit longer than normal to be sure bond market improvement is sustained before adjusting mortgage rates.   As nice as this recovery is, it shouldn’t be viewed as indicative of ongoing success.  Rates continue to face headwinds that will only truly be defeated by weaker economic data and lower inflation.  To that end, economic reports will continue playing an important role.  Next week’s headliners include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales on Wednesday and Friday respectively.  Monday is closed for Veterans Day.

Back to Uneventful Already?

Back to Uneventful Already?

MBS are ending the trading day at almost perfectly unchanged levels–not the sort of thing one might expect on what has been yet another exceptionally volatile week with both a presidential election and Fed announcement. Part of the reason is that MBS happened to align well with the portion of the yield curve that was right in the middle of gains and losses.  In other words, 2-3yr Treasuries sold off.  10-30yr Treasuries rallied.  5yr Treasuries were roughly unchanged, just like MBS.  So no, we’re not quite back to “uneventful” yet, even though things have calmed down markedly from Wednesday morning.

Econ Data / Events

Consumer Sentiment

73 vs 71 f’cast, 70.5 prev

Inflation Expectations 1yr

2.6 vs 2.7 f’ast/prev

Market Movement Recap

10:21 AM Slightly stronger overnight and gaining more ground now.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 7bps at 4.268

12:01 PM slightly weaker since last update.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.304

02:26 PM MBS now unchanged and 10yr down 3.3bps at 4.305