An index of contract signings decreased 9.3% to 71.8 last month, according to data released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors.

The Supreme Court Wednesday appeared skeptical of the Justice Department’s argument that removal of a Federal Reserve governor is unreviewable or that the president’s preference for Fed governors outweighs the harm to the Fed from curbing the central bank’s political independence.

Executives surveyed by American Banker said companies vying to wrestle market share from banks are a major threat to operations in the coming year.

Bonds Recovering a Bit After “Framework of a Deal” on Greenland

Geopolitics have been front and center for financial markets over the past 2 days with both stocks and bonds taking clear cues from newswires pertaining to tariff brinksmanship, trade deal negotiations, foreign wealth fund participation, and ultimately, the late-day announcement of a “framework of a deal” regarding Greenland. Details are in short supply, but the most important development being a pause on the plan to implement new tariffs on February 1st. Markets are cautiously trading this as a win for now with stocks and bonds at the best levels of the week, but definitely not back in line with last week’s levels. 

Econ Data / Events

MBA Purchase Index (Jan)/16

194.1 vs 184.6 prev

MBA Refi Index (Jan)/16

1580.8 vs 1313.1 prev

Pending Home Sales

71.8 vs 79.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:54 AM choppy, sideways overnight session and little-changed so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.286

01:25 PM reasonably well received 20yr bond auction.  10yr down 3 bps at 4.266 and MBS up an eighth.

02:57 PM Best levels of the day after Greenland-related tariff pause and word of a “deal framework.”  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.25

What’s said in the online video, which replicates the president’s voice with his permission, may be as important to lenders as how the message is delivered.

Representatives of both insurers and policyholders point out multiple flaws in the new laws and additional proposed bills.

The President is promising big announcements on housing affordability issues in Switzerland, but will it include ending the GSE conservatorships?

The real estate data firm said the merger will support efforts to scale and plans to ramp up development of enterprise technology products.

Hot securitization sectors such as non-qualified mortgages and home equity are set to expand further amid market shifts this year, recent forecasts suggest.

Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg?

After months spent observing the same old range in the bond market, we’re finally in the throes of a confirmed breakout. Unfortunately, the breakout has seen 10yr yields surge almost 10bps above the range ceiling in just 2 days. Technical analysts are high fiving each other because this is a classic breakout event (higher volume, sharper movement in the direction of the breakout). Fundamental traders are saying “not so fast” because there’s nothing to say bonds couldn’t be in decent shape today without fiscal drama in Japan or spiraling geopolitical tension over Greenland. We got unequivocal confirmation of the latter today when a Danish pension fund said it was pulling out of US Treasuries. That marked the day’s biggest volume spike and sharpest selling.  

Econ Data / Events

ADP weekly jobs

8k vs 11.25k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM Sharply weaker overnight as bonds brace for fallout with Europe over Greenland push. 10yr up 6.1bps at 4.285.  MBS down nearly 3/8ths of a point.

10:43 AM Bouncing back a bit. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.7bps at 4.27

01:47 PM MBS now down 10 ticks (.31) on the day and almost 6 ticks (.19) off intraday highs.  10yr up 6.2bps at 4.286.  No new drama.  Just gradual selling.