Heading into the week, Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium was only event on the calendar that held much promise for motivating any major movement in mortgage rates. Not only did it deliver on that promise, but it did so in everyone’s favorite direction. Powell didn’t pivot too much from his last major speech on July 30th. But in light of the weak jobs numbers that came out 2 days later, he understandably called out a shift in the balance of risk between inflation and employment. In not so many words, like several other Fed members have pointed out in recent weeks, Powell essentially said the labor market is looking weak enough to entertain a rate cut in the near future, even as the inflation outlook remains somewhat uncertain.  The market began adjusting for this possibility on August 1st when the rocky jobs numbers came out. Today’s speech was interpreted as additional validation of that move. With that, mortgage rates saw their biggest drop since August 1st, just barely beating out August 13th’s lows to claim 2025’s lowest spot. October 3rd, 2024 was the last time the average 30yr fixed rate was any lower. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Jackson Hole Speech Delivers

Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was this week’s only big ticket in terms of market movement potential and it definitely delivered. We haven’t heard from Powell since 2 days before infamous August 1st jobs report. His tone logically pivoted to place incrementally more focus on the Fed’s full employment mandate while repeating that the base case is for tariff-driven inflation to be–well–transitory. Combine that with his reminder that policy rates are still in restrictive territory and the takeaway was a subtle but obvious openness to consider a September cut. Traders were surprisingly surprised by this, thus making for a decent little rally in bonds. Gains arrived swiftly and hung out uneventfully through the close.

Market Movement Recap

09:56 AM Flat overnight and slightly stronger in early trading.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.309

10:16 AM Sharp rally after Powell speech.  MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 7.2bps at 4.254

01:25 PM Holding fairly close to strongest levels. MBS up nearly 3/8ths and 10yr down 7bps at 4.258

03:42 PM little-changed at strongest levels.  MBS still up 3/8ths and 10yr down 6.7bps at 4.260

A few years back someone told me, “Two lenders merging in this environment is like two drunks outside a bar holding each other up.” That isn’t quite the case anymore for various reasons (we’re just one big announcement away from yet another block buster strategic deal, right?), not the least of which is certain companies are expanding while talented individuals are looking. I received a note from the head of HR at a well-known lender asking me about people looking. I pointed him to the Chrisman Job Board where job seekers can join the Talent Community for free, and employers can easily add a job listing or forward the listing to the team and they’ll take care of it for you. Do you think your company is going to last forever, like Kikkoman Soy Sauce or the Lowenbrau Brewery? Think again. Here’s a little trivia question for tonight’s happy hour. At its peak in 2004, this company had 9,094 locations. Today, 21 years later, it has just one, in Bend Oregon… This isn’t a contest; don’t write with answers please. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by FirstClose. FirstClose provides fintech solutions to HELOC and mortgage lenders nationwide, increases profitability, and reduces costs for mortgage lenders through systems and relationships that enable lenders to assist borrowers more effectively and ultimately shorten closing times. Hear an interview with ThoughtFocus Build’s Bradley Clerkin on AI scalability in the mortgage industry, highlighting the shift from basic AI functions to agentic AI with background workers.)

Today’s Jackson Hole speech gave Fed Chair Powell an opportunity to adjust his stance in light of much weaker jobs report that came out 2 days after the last Fed meeting. Powell had quite a bit to say, but the only thing the market really needed hear in order to facilitate a reaction was that the balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy. A close second was that tariff-driven inflation was unlikely to be a lasting dynamic given the downside risks to the labor market. Bonds rallied instantly on the release of the speech with short-term yields logically leading the way (due to their closer connection to Fed rate expectations). September rate cut odds moved back to the 90%+ levels seen earlier this week. 10yr yields are back in the middle of their August range and MBS are back near 2025’s highs.

Two Harbors’ agreement with Pine River resolves a case over wrongful termination that the REIT was already found liable for by a federal court.

Trump has yet to decide when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will return to the market in an IPO that regulator Bill Pulte says could top $1 trillion.

Lagging tech adoption, issues with credit, and originators’ rush to close refinances earlier this year contributed to deterioration, a study found.

The giant lender and servicer which acquired Home Point Capital in 2023 did not say whether it would still pursue damages in the repurchase dispute.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage ended the week unchanged as the 10-year Treasury ended Wednesday about 5 basis points higher than seven days before.

Some Headwinds Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Thursday brought the week’s only relevant econ data with 3 occasional market movers on tap.  Their results were mixed, but the important development was that the inflation components of the Philly Fed and S&P PMI data agreed that price pressures are alive and well. This made for a weaker start during the AM hours and that weakness was exacerbated by comments from Fed’s Hammack (who said current data doesn’t justify a September rate cut). A super strong 30yr TIPS auction at 1pm helped push back just a bit (which is quite remarkable as this essentially never has an impact). In the bigger picture, bonds could still be classified as drifting sideways to slightly weaker in a narrow range. Friday morning’s speech from Fed Chair Powell isn’t guaranteed to cause volatility, but it’s the week’s only true top-tier event in terms of volatility potential.

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Aug)/09

1,972K vs 1960K f’cast, 1953K prev

Jobless Claims (Aug)/16

235K vs 225K f’cast, 224K prev

Philly Fed Business Index (Aug)

-0.3 vs 7 f’cast, 15.9 prev

Philly Fed Prices Paid (Aug)

66.80 vs — f’cast, 58.80 prev

S&P Manufacturing PMI

53.3 vs 49.5 f’cast, 49.8 prev

S&P Services PMI

55.4 vs 54.2 f’cast, 55.7 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM MBS are now down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr yields are close to unchanged at 4.296 after being over 4.315 just before the data.

09:03 AM 10yr yields are back up to 4.312 (up 1.8bps on the day) and MBS are down 3 ticks (.09) on the day.

09:52 AM Weakest levels after PMI data.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.3bps at 4.328

11:22 AM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day 10yr yields up 4.5bps on the day at 4.35. Fed’s Hammack comments are the driver of the most recent weakness

01:11 PM Some resilience after strong 30yr TIPS auction (never have we ever seen a 30yr TIPS auction move the market).  10yr up 3.4bps at 4.329 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).