Volatility Eludes Bonds

Bonds saw some steady selling pressure earlier in the week, but with the total damage amounting to an average of 2bps per day in 10yr yields, it was anything but volatile. The past 2 trading sessions had more noticeable ups and downs, but they played out in an even narrower range. Friday, specifically, was woefully range-bound with 10yr yields essentially in a 2bp range all day. Balmy PPI data and Fed Chair decisions and historic volatility in certain commodities didn’t make any difference. Even the 3pm ET month-end trading barely registered a response despite the typical surge in volume (by far the highest minutes of volume of every month). Next week brings the big ticket econ data and thus a chance for some legit data driven volatility.

Econ Data / Events

Core Producer Prices MM (Dec)

0.7% vs 0.2% f’cast, 0% prev

PPI YoY (Dec)

3.0% vs 2.7% f’cast, 3% prev

Producer Prices (Dec)

0.5% vs 0.2% f’cast, 0.2% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:39 AM MBS down about an eighth and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.252

12:22 PM MBS down 2 ticks (.06).  10yr up 1.5bps at 4.251

02:34 PM Near strongest levels with MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr close to unchanged at 4.238

04:19 PM Volatility remains elusive into the close. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up up 0.7bps at 4.243

There’s a lot of sensible thinking going on out there in our biz. Yesterday in the Thought Leadership section, attorney Mitch Kider addressed the “Rule of Law” and what he believes is important to the industry. In a new article featured in Chrisman Commentary’s Thought Leadership, David Spector challenges the rate-centric view of housing affordability, arguing that the real strain comes from a tight housing supply pipeline, local zoning and permitting roadblocks, and tax policies that shape who can afford to own versus invest. He examines how transaction costs, insurance, property taxes, and operational inefficiencies quietly inflate monthly payments, and why lowering mortgage origination friction, modernizing appraisal and title practices, and revisiting pricing policies could meaningfully ease borrower burden without adding risk. Read the full article to unpack where these pressures originate and what coordinated changes could shift the trajectory. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with Prudent AI’s Suha Zehl on moving certainty to the front of the lending process to reduce operational friction, eliminate late-stage surprises, and allow lenders to scale volume, protect margins, and serve complex borrowers without adding staff.)

Competition that impacted margins and prepayments in excess of expectations were challenges during the period, but executives report first quarter improvement.

Analysts estimate Pennymac, Rocket, UWM and Loandepot will post an improved earnings per share and total loan origination volume than the same time a year prior.

Even with the 4 basis point rise in the 30-year fixed over the past two weeks, mortgage rates are still hovering near three-year lows, Freddie Mac said.

Stop chasing digital leads and invest in face-to-face partnerships that build trust and referrals sustainable growth, writes a leader of Choice Mortgage Group.

VA- and FHA-backed mortgages helped drive the increase in property volume, but sales did not maintain the same pace, according to Auction.com.

Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped

Bonds began the day with a bit of selling pressure.  It was almost too small to draw much attention to. MBS never dropped below yesterday’s lows and 10yr yields merely moved back up to overnight highs (also, no higher than yesterday’s highs). In other words, it was “in-range weakness”–the kind of thing we often view as incidental and inconsequential. Shortly after the 9:30am NYSE open, stocks tanked hard along with several of the recently volatile commodities. Bonds benefited from that selling, but didn’t lose any ground after the stock/commodities move reversed.

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Jan)/17

1,827K vs 1860K f’cast, 1849K prev

Jobless Claims (Jan)/24

209K vs 205K f’cast, 200K prev

Market Movement Recap

08:40 AM No reaction to AM econ data.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.246.

09:51 AM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.253 after mystery, mini-sell-off levels off. 

01:09 PM No reaction to 7yr auction. 10yr yield down 1bp at 4.233 and MBS unchanged. 

03:39 PM Sideways near stronger levels in Treasuries with 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.228.  MBS roughly unchanged.

Fans of MASH know that Alan Alda turned 90 yesterday, and the remaining actors from the show joined him on the beach. When you reach a certain age you don’t care about the employment picture. Amazon laying off another 16,000, as announced this week, won’t help anyone’s “the economy is doing great” argument. As economist Elliot Eisenberg points out, “The most disturbing piece of information from last week’s income data is the confirmation of a complete lack of income growth over the past 12 months. During 11/24, real (after inflation) disposable (after taxes) per capita personal income was $52,324 and during 11/25 it was $52,557. Additionally, job growth over those 12 months was an anemic 857,000, or half a percent and declining, the lowest growth rate since 11/2010.” Certainly how economics impact lenders will be a topic on today’s The Big Picture at 3PM ET with guest Better.com CEO Vishal Garg for a wide-ranging conversation on the evolution of Better, what AI-powered mortgage looks like in practice, scaling to $100 billion in volume, the One Day Mortgage, blending technology with local origination, rebuilding culture and trust, and how leadership teams should be positioning for the next turn in the housing cycle. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with Sitewire’s Bryan Kester that includes an exploration of how permitting friction, underestimated rehab complexity, and weak pre-funding diligence (not land or labor) have become the true constraints on housing supply, and what smarter underwriting and process discipline look like as the market adapts.)

Sometimes being tuned into daily mortgage rate changes means coming across other news about financial markets. In today’s case, that could expose you to anything from the massive selling of certain stocks earlier in the day or the unprecedented trading levels in various commodities.  While the financial market buzz may be centered on silver and gold (and Microsoft, today), mortgage rates drifted quietly sideways. That’s no surprise considering rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds were roughly unchanged. This keeps the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.16%.  Apart from the week of Jan 12-16th, this is right in line with the lowest levels going back to early 2023.