“Why did the Dalai Lama go to Las Vegas? Because he loves Tibet.” Here at the “MBA Annual,” the puns may not be flying, but there is news bouncing off the walls, some of it learned just by chatting in the hallways. (And there is plenty of time spent walking through the convention center… I need a Segway!) The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced that total single-family mortgage origination volume is expected to increase to $2.2 trillion in 2026 from $2.0 trillion expected in 2025. Purchase originations are forecast to increase 7.7 percent to $1.46 trillion next year and refinance originations are expected to increase 9.2 percent to $737 billion. By loan count, total mortgage origination volume is expected to increase 7.6 percent to 5.8 million loans in 2026 from 5.4 million loans expected in 2025. Since the boom 2020-2021 years, lenders not only laid off tens of thousands, but the successful ones have been implementing technology, operational efficiency, and management improvement. Are you ready for a pickup? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite’s three core products nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics, unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into a seamless end-to-end solution embedded with data-driven insights and intelligent automation. Hear an interview with Geoff Sharp at Eris Innovations, the creators of CME’s Eris SOFR Swap futures, on the growing need for SOFR-based cash flow hedging solutions.)

Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels in just over a month. It was the 3rd best day in over a year and the 24th best day in over 3 years. The other 23 days weren’t too much lower either. The only difference today is a microscopic improvement that makes it the 2nd best day in over a year. In other words, we’re hanging out near 3 year lows with minimal volatility. In order to see sharper, more sustained momentum, we’d likely need the government shutdown to end. That would allow the most consequential economic reports (like the jobs report) to be released. It would also allow data collection to resume for future jobs reports. Between now and then, there is other data to guide the rate market, but it’s just not as heavy hitting. This week is particularly light in that regard, but there’s one exception. The BLS received an exception to compile September’s CPI inflation data, to be released this Friday. It’s not quite on par with the jobs report, but it can certainly get rates moving (for better or worse, depending on the details).

Strange Combo of Excitement and Boredom

Boring stuff first: there was no significant data, news, volume, or volatility today. Bonds gained modest ground early and then held mostly sideways through the 3pm CME close. In that sense, it was just like most other days during the government shutdown (and quite a few even before the shutdown). The excitement is entirely due to outright levels. It was the second best close for 10yr yields in over a year and the 2nd best for 2yr yields in over 3 years (a reflection of the rate cut outlook). 

Market Movement Recap

10:24 AM Slightly weaker overnight, but now stronger after 8:20am rally.  10yr down 1.6bps at 3.994 and MBS up 3 ticks (.09)

01:58 PM Flat all day so far.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.9bps at 3.99

03:58 PM Heading out near best levels.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.7bps at 3.981

New week. Same grind. We’re waiting (likely for a good while longer) for the government shutdown to end before the most relevant econ data can truly exert influence on the bond market in the big picture. On the plus side, the trading in the interim has erred on the bullish side thanks to the available non-gov data and anxiety over trade tensions. So far this morning, bonds have rallied at the 8:20am CME open which is just something that can happen serendipitously due to trader positioning and is not tied to any underlying motivation in news/data.
NOTE: the Conference Board’s leading indicator index is not being published today. They are citing the shutdown as the reason even though they are not a government agency. 

Transunion will offer the credit scoring model for $4 in 2026, following previous moves made by VantageScore partners Experian and Equifax.

Flagstar shareholders approved a plan to merge its holding company into the bank; Huntington tapped a new chief auditor, along with two new business leaders; First Foundation hired a new chief credit officer; and more in this week’s banking news roundup.

Regulators also accused Southern California-based E Mortgage of failing to properly supervise remote employees and cooperate with their examinations.

Approximately three years after the one-time non-depository bought Roscoe (Texas) State Bank, Cornerstone Capital Bancorp agreed to purchase Peoples Bancorp.

Solve stages an acquisition, Intercontinental Exchange partners on new indices, Optimal Blue adds updates and Incenter offers a CRA loan trading platform.

While borrowing activity increased from a year ago, seasonal patterns and economic concerns suggest near-term slowing, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.