Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains

This morning’s commentary focused on a bond rally in response to an absence of heavy-handed specificity in Trump’s initial salvo of executive orders–specifically with respect to trade policy. In not so many words, massive, immediate tariffs have been referred to agencies for research and comment. Bonds (via futures) rallied on the news yesterday and into the overnight session.  Without any new sources of inspiration today, the overnight gains remained intact and volatility was generally absent. 

Market Movement Recap

09:52 AM Moderately stronger overnight with implied gains on Monday in Treasury futures.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down roughly 5bps at 4.577

01:32 PM Roughly an eighth of a point below best levels.  MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.577

03:43 PM Calmly holding gains.  MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.564

Trump issued numerous executive orders on Monday, but conspicuously absent was any specific directive regarding tariffs.  This was one of the key areas of focus for financial markets.  While there are few different ways it could be traded, one of the simplest was from an inflation standpoint. With specifics TBD, bonds breathed a modest sigh of relief on inflation implications.  There was an immediate reaction at 8:30am yesterday (in futures) following WSJ’s reporting on the tariff delay. There’s been some volatility in the interim, but bonds have managed to improve a bit more since then. 

Please don’t touch my pizza! In a decision that has left countless fans disappointed,, including many in the mortgage ranks, Costco has decided to remove the $1.25 fries option from the food court menu entirely. The decision comes at a time when the retailer identified certain items as being “loss leaders,” which include the $5 rotisserie chicken, the $1.50 hot dog and soda combo (which we hope never goes anywhere) and now, the fries. On top of that, Costco workers have voted to strike, and they’re serious. At the other end of the economic spectrum, the Trumps have launched their own cryptocurrencies… I’ve lost track of the billions added to their net worth. (Freddie and Fannie accept virtual currencies under certain circumstances.) On the regulatory front, attorney Brian Levy seems to have rethought his criticism of DOGE’s lack of seriousness. After a barrage of CFPB action in the presumed final days of Rohit Chopra’s tenure, Levy muses on the prospects for reform under new CFPB leadership in his latest Mortgage Musings. (Sign up here for a free subscription.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Lender Toolkit’s new Prism. Experience a quantum leap in accuracy and efficiency as you streamline workflows, reduce errors, and close loans faster. Prism’s advanced OCR boasts 99 percent accuracy across 1,450+ document types. Effortlessly index, analyze, and underwrite crucial data with their intelligent system. Today’s has an interview with EquityProtect’s Jon Dovidio on industry solutions to deed theft and title fraud.)

Mortgage rates are driven predominantly by the bond market and bonds were able to clear up a few curiosities on inauguration day.  Specifically, traders expected multiple executive orders with several focusing on proposed tariffs.  While history suggests the conventional wisdom may be faulty, the general belief is that tariffs increase inflation. Considering inflation correlates with higher rates, there was some relief in rates when the executive orders concerning tariffs turned out to be less aggressive than expected.  In not so many words, the president ordered various agencies to asses trade agreements/deficits and recommend measures to address them, such as tariffs. Bonds were thus able to hold onto the gains from last week with some additional improvement today.  The average mortgage lender wasn’t eager to adjust rates, however, with the top tier 30yr fixed rate remaining unchanged from last Friday.

A one-page outline of priorities for Trump’s inauguration day obtained American Banker includes financial policy items, including firing Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra, issuing a “reset” of that agency and designating crypto as a “national priority.”

Impacted borrowers should anticipate some breaks from insurance coverage and home loan payments, but timelines and relief funds could vary significantly.

Commoditization of mortgages, plus technology that eases the refinance process, and the regulatory environment, all contributed to the decision.

Industry leaders and mortgage trade groups expressed hope that Bill Pulte’s nomination to head the agency could result in more housing supply.

Legal arguments in this case hinge on whether products offered by HEI platforms should fall under the Truth in Lending Act.

Mortgage applications for newly constructed homes continued to increase on a year-over-year basis, as existing home listings remain constrained.