Mortgage applications jumped sharply last week, driven by lower rates and a rebound in refinance activity. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, total volume rose 7.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 7% unadjusted. The Refinance Index increased 9% from the previous week and is now 111% higher than the same week one year ago. Refi demand remains the primary engine of growth, with larger-balance borrowers especially responsive to rate drops. It bears repeating that things look different in context.  Specifically, while refi demand looks great compared to the past 2 years, we’re just now getting up to levels that were considered “very slow” historically. “Mortgage rates decreased for the fourth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate down to 6.30 percent, its lowest level since September 2024. This recent decline in rates spurred the second consecutive week of increased refinance activity, driven mainly by conventional refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The ARM share of applications, which had been trending higher, dipped below 10 percent last week, as lower rates prompted more borrowers to choose fixed-rate loans. Additionally, the average loan size of a refinance application remained elevated at $393,900, as borrowers with larger loan sizes continue to be sensitive to rate movements. Purchase applications increased compared to a holiday-shortened week across most loan types. However, USDA applications fell more than 26 percent, impacted by the ongoing government shutdown.”

Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices released new home-price data this week covering the month of August. The message is unchanged: prices remain higher than a year ago, but the pace of appreciation continues to slow. Case-Shiller’s national annual gain eased to 1.5%, the smallest in more than 2 years, while FHFA is near its lowest annual pace since 2012. Caveat: “lowest in x years” refers to growth rate, not price levels. Index levels remain near all-time highs with only modest recent slippage—nothing like 2008–09. The following chart represents the year over year change (%) in the index values above: The following chart represents the month-over-month change (%) in the index levels from the first chart.  NOTE: FHFA (blue line) is seasonally adjusted, meaning there are no regular peaks/valleys that correspond with typical real estate price cycle.  Contrast that to Case-Shiller (orange line) which DOES show those regular peaks/valleys.  On that note, August’s price data (the subject of today’s update) is the earliest possible month for the index to bottom out on any given year, and also an uncommon one.  More typically, the bounce occurs in October (which we won’t see for 2 months due to the normal reporting lag). All that to say: year-over-year price appreciation is unlikely to improve next month, especially because 2024 was one of the uncommon years where August was the lowest index value of the year. 

After hitting the highest level in several weeks on Thursday, mortgage rates managed to move moderately lower on Friday. Counterpoint: Friday’s rates are still the 2nd highest of the past 2 weeks and still meaningfully higher than last Friday’s (6.28% vs 6.19% in terms of MND’s rate index). The improvement makes it clear that lenders were setting rates defensively on Thursday. We know this because the level of improvement in rates is greater than that suggested by the underlying bond market. In other words, Thursday’s rates had a bit of a cushion and lenders removed that cushion on Friday. Another caveat is that Friday’s bond market movement argued for a mid-day adjustment toward higher rates, but it wasn’t sharp enough for the average lender to go to the trouble of changing rates. In these scenarios, we can safely assume that if bonds are unchanged by Monday morning, most lenders will be offering slightly higher rates.   This is a big “if,” of course. There’s never any way to know exactly what bonds will do in the future, but all things being equal, there’s a slight disadvantage that would need to be overcome if rates are to hold steady or improve.

Change is constant. Soon I head to Austin, in the Great State of Texas, for the TMBA’s star-studded Housing Summit where “change” will certainly be studied. JPMorgan is embracing block chain. Tired of your cleaning supplies smelling like lemon? How about pumpkin, or birthday cake? “Rob, are you hearing from other brokers or LOs that their borrowers are demanding lower rates on their ‘lock’ since the Fed changed?” I am, and it is a great opportunity to be a knowledgeable human (instead of a robot) and explain why it isn’t the case: that overnight rates are not the same as 30-year rates. The Fed intends to change its policy of balance sheet runoff, ending it but still letting the portfolio of mortgage-backed securities mature without replenishing them. Change may happen with the 2026 mid-term elections approaching, the industry can expect significant stakes tied to a potential shift in congressional power. Register for MAA’s Next Quarterly Webinar on Tuesday, November 4, from 3:00-4:00 PM ET to hear updates on major efforts like the bipartisan ROAD to Housing Act, the possible re-privatization and release from conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the future of credit score pricing, the regulation of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and more. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Optimal Blue, the only end-to-end capital markets platform built to power performance, precision, and profitability, helping lenders of all sizes operate more efficiently, manage risk more effectively, and maximize results. Today’s has an interview with dataqollab’s Adam Quinones on how Fed actions and rhetoric have been influencing bond movement and MBS spreads.)

The head of the government-sponsored enterprise’s oversight agency said the cuts were made to positions that weren’t central to mortgages and new home sales.

The tech giant provided context around Flagstar and Pennymac’s moves, as it reported more Encompass and MSP clients and greater mortgage income.

Uncover how high-speed internet access drives property valuations, creates lending opportunities, and transforms mortgage markets nationwide.

Rocket Companies lost $124 million on a GAAP basis, but its management celebrated milestones regarding its Redfin and Mr. Cooper acquisitions.

Instances of miscommunication between servicers and borrowers have declined, but some warn that CFPB stepping back from enforcement could create oversight gaps.

Are you ready to change the time on your car’s clock, or leave it and let it be right again on March 8, 2026? Some technology is cool. Imagine controlling your iPhone entirely with your eyes. (That would really keep me from riding my bike and talking on the phone!) Food delivery robots have human names and blinking eyes. But they’re not our friends any more than the Russians are our allies. Every lender and title company knows that cybercriminals don’t take breaks, and neither do data breaches. The TransUnion breach exposed the personal details of over 4.4 million Americans. If your information was among them, your identity could already be at risk. Bank hacking incidents have doubled since 2023, and bank investors are spooked. When you receive a letter or an email saying your personal information may have been compromised, do you even care? Do you look at maps of cyber-attacks, and just shrug and hope your IT department is on the ball? Good luck. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Optimal Blue, the only end-to-end capital markets platform built to power performance, precision, and profitability, helping lenders of all sizes operate more efficiently, manage risk more effectively, and maximize results. Today’s has an interview with Finance of America’s Adam Potafiy on reverse mortgages and how they’re being reengineered for the next generation of clients.) Services, Products, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers