It’s shaping up to be a frustrating day market watchers. Decades of experience tells us that bonds should rally fairly sharply on a day where nonfarm payrolls miss the forecast by the widest margin in more than a year.  At -92k vs +59k, today fits that bill.  And like you’d expect, bonds rallied sharply right at 8:30am ET. But the rally was short-lived and it’s not a huge surprise.
That’s not a hindsight assessment either.  It was actually our first analytical reaction. Reason being: the unemployment rate carries more weight than NFP these days, and it was only up to 4.4% from 4.3% last month. Beyond that, we can consider the payroll count was distorted by health care strikes (and noted by BLS at the top of the report). With health care doing so much heavy lifting, the impact on NFP can’t be overstated.

Finally, away from the data, we have the ongoing surge in oil prices which kicked into even higher gear today. At this point, inflation implications can’t be ignored. We normally push back on the oil vs 10yr correlation because it’s so frequently irrelevant–especially over the shortest time horizons.  The scope of movement can also be very mismatched, even when correlation is present. For evidence, look no further than the long-term chart.

But in the medium-short term, the correlation is definitely causing problems for bonds. After all, even a weak correlation is going to hurt when oil is moving this sharply–especially if it’s moving for reasons that also imply additional Treasury issuance. 

Officially winter ends on 3/19, as the Spring Equinox is 3/20. Most modern clocks these days auto-update when daylight savings begins/ends. So, Sunday morning I’ll be walking around my house thinking, “Wow… times have changed.” This Sunday many places will be changing their clocks and springing ahead. This will, once again, lead to the public asking politicians to do away with changing clocks, with stories of bad traffic and grumpy students. For something new, the Federal Reserve Board announced the termination of its 2018 enforcement action against Wells Fargo, following its determination that the bank had met all required conditions. Recall that Wells’ asset cap was lifted last June. Does this mean that “The Coach” is destined to open up a correspondent channel? Probably not, but if the risk & reward stars align, who knows… especially with solid business. According to Curinos’ proprietary application index, February 2026 funded mortgage volume increased 35 percent YoY and increased 2 percent MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in February 2026 was 6.07, 9bps lower than January 2026 and 81bps lower than the same month last year. Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Feewise, which turns mortgage compliance from bottleneck to business accelerator. Handle all the complexities involved with establishing TRID compliant fees and disclosures, achieve sign off, and deliver packages to your consumers for review or signature. Hear an interview with FICO’s Julie May on how lender risk behavior is evolving, what is driving the growing adoption of trended data, and how new distribution models could reshape credit scoring across the mortgage industry.)

Many homeowners and first-time buyers are surprised by rising property taxes and insurance, which can sharply increase monthly mortgage costs beyond principal and interest.

The announcement drove a large increase in Better’s stock price, but UWM, Rocket and Pennymac all saw any gains earlier in the day more than dissipate.

The top employers in home lending value business partners with a large market share and reach but they also need to differentiate themselves.

While this only shows a 2-basis-point rise in the 30-year fixed since last week, the Lender Price product and pricing engine data is 30 basis points higher.

Median rents rose at a greater rate than median sales prices in 55% of the 416 counties with sufficient data between 2025 and 2026, Attom found.

Here in Park City, at the annual mortgage ski trip, some of the banter is social, and some is focused on business. On the business side of things, one topic is the nearly 1 million people impacted by hackers attacking Figure Technology Solutions, a blockchain-focused fintech lender. U.S. financial institutions are increasing cybersecurity vigilance amid the escalating war with Iran, with industry leaders warning that geopolitical conflict often brings a rise in digital threats. Todd Klessman, managing director for financial services cyber and technology at SIFMA, said, “The industry remains vigilant and ready to respond to cyber threats at all times, and especially when global cybersecurity risks are heightened.” While we’re on technology, the industry continues to wonder if there will be any limits on artificial intelligence (AI), and in an Insellerate webinar today at 10AM PT (1PM ET) they will discuss how top lenders are pre-positioning for refinances with AI and how to prepare for the next refi cycle without over hiring, overreacting, or missing the window. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Feewise, which turns mortgage compliance from bottleneck to business accelerator. Handle all the complexities involved with establishing TRID compliant fees and disclosures, achieve sign off, and deliver packages to your consumers for review or signature. Hear an interview with Feewise’s Rob Withers on enhancing tech stacks through a disclosure manufacturing solution that works at the speed of sales.)

Mortgage rates bounced back up today as the underlying bond market continued the selling trend seen on 3 out of 4 days so far this week. In the overnight hours, bond yields (which generally correlate with mortgage rates) moved higher in concert with rising oil prices.  That said, it would be a mistake to assume this is the only correlation in town. Oil prices continued to rise sharply during domestic hours, but bond yields remained flat–possibly benefiting from safe-haven demand following heavy losses in stocks. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is still under its recent highs, but after today’s jump, it’s fairly close. This is a victory of sorts, considering 10yr Treasury yields are clearly above their recent highs.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Dueling Narrative Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report

In the overnight session yields followed oil prices higher, but notably, Treasuries continued to sell even after oil leveled off. Then during domestic hours, it was Treasuries’ turn to level off while oil prices spiked.  From 9am to 2pm, oil rose nearly $5/bbl while Treasury yields remained completely flat. One way to justify this would be via safe-haven demand from heavy stock losses, but we continue not loving that explanation because it is even less reliably correlated than bonds vs oil. At this point, we’re simply hoping that the jobs report helps restore some sense of normal market/data correlation, but at this point, anything’s possible. 

Econ Data / Events

Challenger layoffs (Feb)

48.307K vs — f’cast, 108.435K prev

Continued Claims (Feb)/21

1,868K vs 1850K f’cast, 1833K prev

Import prices mm (Jan)

0.2% vs 0.2% f’cast, 0.1% prev

Jobless Claims (Feb)/28

213K vs 215K f’cast, 212K prev

Market Movement Recap

08:51 AM Weaker overnight and little-changed after data. MBS down just over an eighth and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.136

12:23 PM sideways at weaker levels. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.136

02:35 PM sideways at similar levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.134