20yr Treasury Auction to The Rescue

The day began with a bond market that looked like it might take an opportunity to retrace a small portion of the gains seen in recent days.  Even at its worst, it wasn’t that threatening (i.e. 10yr yields never rose above 3.98%). But any notion of a pull-back was effectively erased at 1pm with the results of the 20yr bond auction. Bids totaled 2.73 times the auction amount–right in line with the 6-auction average and the yield came in 1.3bps lower than expected. A 20yr auction wouldn’t normally be an obvious market mover, but the muted range and dearth of data made the reaction more noticeable. With that, bonds moved back into positive territory on the day and held steady through the 3pm close.

Econ Data / Events

Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Biz Activity

-22.2 vs -12.3 prev
employment -4.5 vs +9.4 prev
new orders -17.4 vs +0.5 prev
prices 35.8 vs 38.8 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:33 AM Losing some ground after opening stronger.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 0.5bps at 3.974

01:52 PM Decent recovery after 20yr auction.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 3.952

03:33 PM Just off best levels.  MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1.5bps at 3.955

“Why did the Tibetan Monks go to Las Vegas? They are very good at games of chants.” One topic among hallway chats with lenders here at the MBA Annual is keeping costs down. After all, everyone is selling, or putting their loans into portfolios, at roughly the same price, so whether a lender is doing $10 million a month or $1 billion a month, cost and efficiency are paramount. The current STRATMOR write up is titled, “Rates Drop, Pipelines Pop: Don’t Let Fulfillment Flop.” One of the simplest (I didn’t say easiest) ways to improve the cost per loan is ask your staff, “What are you trying to do to improve your pull through?” After all, higher pull through automatically lowers your cost per funded loan. And while IMB numbers are dropping, those remaining are carefully eyeing ARM, home equity, and non-Agency programs. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite’s three core products nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics, unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into a seamless end-to-end solution embedded with data-driven insights and intelligent automation. Hear an Interview with Bradley’s Jonathan Kolodziej on the evolving enforcement of federal and state consumer financial laws and some lender best practices for adapting to changes in the regulatory environment.) Services, Products, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers

Think back to October 17th. MBS opened slightly weaker and ended the day down about an eighth of a point.  That was the last time we had a weaker start, and there are some parallels to today. In both cases, the weakness was modest. In both cases, the previous session closed at the best levels in at least a month.  In fact, yesterday’s 5.0 MBS prices matched their best close in over a year.  We can definitely forgive (and possibly even  expect ) a small pull-back after such a consistent rally. As discussed in yesterday’s video, it was beginning to seem like a good moment for broader consolidation.

And a bonus chart in light of yesterday’s discussion of oil prices…  Clearly not a 1:1 correlation, but fans of the oil/Treasury connection could at least say the rebound is not doing us any favors.

Kin, a direct-to-consumer insurance provider, has started a mortgage broker in Florida which also takes loan applications through a call center or online.

The company’s servicing valuations fell but by less than in previous quarters. Lower rates both aided production and created recapture opportunities.

The NRMLA/Riskspan Reverse Mortgage Market Index set a new high of 502.42, with the dollar amount of home equity for those 62 or over reaching $14.4 trillion.

The housing agency director also announced plans to donate his salary to help wounded veterans as CHLA and ICBA push for the enterprises to resume MBS buying.

Bank of America has a playbook for government shutdowns, which includes providing fee and payment waivers as well as loan deferrals and forbearance programs, CEO Brian Moynihan said at the American Bankers Association’s annual convention.

The bonds that underly mortgage rates were only slightly stronger today, but that’s never a bad thing when they closed near the best levels in a year the previous day. Additionally, those bonds improved by the end of the day yesterday, meaning that mortgage lenders were going into today with a bit of a cushion. When lenders set rates, they are basically looking at a constantly-moving bond market and locking in rates that will be in effect for the rest of the day.  Mid-day changes only happen if bonds make a big enough move and yesterday’s wasn’t big enough for most lenders. Yesterday’s cushion combined with today’s modest additional improvement for fairly decent drop in the average top tier 30yr fixed rate.  We’re also now in the zone of rates where movement happens more quickly due to the underlying architecture of the mortgage bond market.  In not so many words, this causes rates to accelerate toward levels that end in 0.125 or .625 for reasons that are too esoteric to dig into today (if you want to nerd out, here you go: Why Mortgage Rates Move in Jumps Instead of Straight Lines). Some lenders are offering their lowest rates in over a year, and some in over 3 years.  The average lender is right in line with 1-year lows and close enough to 3-year lows.

Slow, Steady Gains Continue

Perhaps the absence of big-ticket econ data has left bond traders to ponder a reality that they see as economically challenging.  Perhaps non-gov reports like today’s Philly Fed services index are contributing to those assumptions.  Perhaps other indicators like oil, forex, etc. are exerting some influence. Or perhaps this is the tail end of a short-term repricing driven by last week’s banking concerns or Fed balance sheet expectations. Either way, volume was light and gains were modest as yields push their lowest levels in more than a year.

Econ Data / Events

Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Biz Activity

-22.2 vs -12.3 prev
employment -4.5 vs +9.4 prev
new orders -17.4 vs +0.5 prev
prices 35.8 vs 38.8 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:43 AM Moderate gains so far this morning.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 3.958

01:49 PM Treasuries off best levels, but still stronger and broadly sideways.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 3.962