Despite some initial signs of volatility in financial markets over the weekend, the bond market managed to avoid losing much ground. Because bonds dictate mortgage rate movement, the average lender remained very close to Friday’s latest levels.  MND’s rate index (a measure of top-tier 30yr fixed rates) rose by 0.01% which is the smallest increment we measure. Since April 14th, the index has held inside a narrow range of 0.03% with the bottom of that range representing the lowest rate in over a month. Volatility is a bigger risk over the next 2 days as the 2 week Iran war ceasefire expires. The market is generally positioned for further de-escalation, but there’s more room for improvement if the war officially ends and Hormuz fully reopens. Conversely, if there’s unexpected escalation in the next 48 hours, rates could also move back up.

Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend

Bonds/oil/stocks saw a small corrective bounce over the weekend after headlines called the peace process into question, but markets agree we’re close enough to “on track” to avoid a major correction. Over the course of the day, bonds returned all the way to ‘unchanged’ even as oil prices stayed elevated vs Friday’s close. It’s hard to conceive that any counterparties in the war have the economic will to re-escalate at this point. Still, we don’t know if the present 2 week ceasefire will give way to another ceasefire or something more concrete. The nature of that next step could determine the extent of the market’s reaction. If economic data has any chance of moving the needle this week, Tuesday morning is when we’d find out (via Retail Sales for March). 

Market Movement Recap

08:51 AM Bonds only modestly weaker despite initial overnight jump in yields. 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.262 and MBS down 2 ticks (.06).

11:27 AM MBS down nearly an eighth and 10yr up 1bp at 4.255

03:10 PM 10yr unchanged at 4.248 and MBS down 2 ticks (.06).

Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was reflected in oil prices and Treasury yields being at multi-week lows (and stocks at all-time highs). But over the weekend, the U.S. fired on and seized an Iranian ship, and Iran said it was cancelling plans to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices retraced almost all of Friday’s drop on the news and bonds erased more than half of the associated gains. But both began bouncing back slowly in overnight trading. Bonds are now moving back into positive territory on recent headlines that suggest peace talks are back on.

Sun Belt states saw a noticeable surge in liens filed last year, with Florida accounting for 17% of the national total, according to Benutech.

About 43% of Americans upgraded their homes last year, and 33% plan to remodel in the next year, according to a recent survey from Redfin.

Surge, which claims to serve some of the nation’s larger wholesale players, said the lender’s behavior was reminiscent of its spat with Black Knight.

CEO Tim Spence said folding in the acquired bank has gone to plan so far, but the biggest point of risk is still on the horizon.

Questions about the single-report option and whether VantageScore should be introduced before FICO 10T arose during a hearing on broader legislative proposals.

AM Gains Mostly Stick Around

Everything interesting about today occurred before 9am ET (several war-related headlines that prompted a sharp rally in bonds). The rest of the day was spent drifting mostly sideways. Stocks continued their surge to new all-time highs. Oil prices fell in concert with the bond rally, briefly dipping below $80/bbl. 

Market Movement Recap

08:41 AM Modest overnight gains and then more buying on war headlines. MBS up over a quarter point and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.262

01:03 PM MBS up 13 ticks (.41) and 10yr down 8bps at 4.237

04:26 PM little changed as the close approaches. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 7.2bps at 4.244

Builder confidence fell sharply in April as rising costs and economic uncertainty weighed on sentiment heading into the spring buying season. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped four points to 34 , its lowest level since September 2025. The decline marks a notable setback after modest gains in recent months, with sentiment remaining firmly below the breakeven level of 50 that separates positive from negative market conditions. All three major components of the index moved lower. The gauge of current sales conditions fell four points to 37 , while the index measuring future sales expectations dropped seven points to 42 . The component tracking prospective buyer traffic declined three points to 22 , reflecting continued softness in demand. “Builder sentiment has fallen back in spring as buyers face ongoing elevated interest rates and growing economic uncertainty,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens. He added that geopolitical risks and rising energy costs have further dampened confidence and slowed expected momentum in the housing market. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz pointed to increasing pressure from higher fuel prices, noting that a majority of builders are seeing rising material costs as a result. He also highlighted that uncertainty around input costs is making it more difficult for builders to price homes, adding another layer of strain on the market.