POS, Retention Tools, Consumer Direct Workshop and Shows; Construction Psychology; Data on Tap

What happens if labor or materials become too expensive here in the United States? Despite the move toward rejuvenating the manufacturing-based economy in the United States by the current Administration, people will follow the money and go elsewhere, whether it be dental work, hair transplants, or… manufactured housing. With the high cost of home construction, more Americans are becoming curious about working with Chinese suppliers on their renovations. The price of home construction materials in the United States increased by 3 percent from last year, according to the National Association of Home Builders. And since 27 percent of those materials came from China (in 2023), some US homebuilders are thinking of skipping the middleman like Home Depot and local contractors. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Figure, which is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Today’s has an interview with WSFS Bank’s Jeffrey Ruben on how homeowners can strategically tap their equity while navigating today’s rate environment, avoiding common renovation financing pitfalls, and understanding why many are calling this the “golden age” of HELOCs.) Lender and Broker Products and Services Your workflow is already built. Your systems are already in place. Your credit reporting partner should support that. Advantage Partners Solutions gives you access to two platforms: Credit Interlink and MeridianLink Mortgage Credit Link. Both are fully supported by the same team. You choose the platform that fits your loan origination system. Your process stays intact. Your team keeps moving. No disruption. No retraining cycles. No forced transitions. This is an industry-first kind of structure that aligns to your operation and scales with your production volume. It allows your team to maintain momentum while gaining the support of a partner who understands your environment. See how this fits inside your operation and how both platforms support your workflow without interruption. Review your setup and compare it to a model designed to adapt to you and move forward with clarity: Schedule an intro today.

Mortgage Rates Perfectly Unchanged to Start New Week

Despite the elevated volatility risk heading into the weekend, mortgage rates are starting the week in exactly the same territory compared to Friday afternoon. As always, our rate tracking refers to top-tier 30-year fixed rates for the average lender. The absence of meaningful movement in the underlying bond market is a testament to an increasingly high bar of relevance for war-related news. Specifically, the Iran war is the main source of inspiration not only for oil prices, but also for the bonds that dictate interest rates.  Earlier in the war, almost any headline had a visible impact on bonds. But now it’s only the most significant developments. Those are harder to come by in late April as investors are basically waiting for either an official and permanent ceasefire, or a catastrophic re-escalation. Anything in between has proven to be fairly uninteresting when it comes to bond market influence.

Minimal Change Despite Lack of Progress in Peace Talks

The word of the day is “stalled.” You can’t get far reading top news stories over the weekend without seeing it in reference to the negotiations that looked at least somewhat possible on Friday afternoon. At that time, official word was that Witkoff/Kushner were heading to Pakistan on Saturday morning to meet with Iran’s FM Araghchi, but the US contingent never made the trek. Now this morning there are additional reports that a resumption of military operations is being considered. One would think this would make for a big hit to financial markets, but oil prices and bond yields are only modestly higher. And stocks are actually in slightly stronger territory, once again pushing new all-time highs.

Bonds Finally Trade Something Other Than The War

Similar Volatility But in a Friendlier Direction

The bond market saw a roughly identical amount of volatility on each of the last 2 days of the week, but Friday’s version played out in a friendlier direction. Headlines suggested improved prospects of peace negotiations over the weekend. While there is no scheduled talk with the US and Iran, high level reps from both sides are currently–or soon will be–in Pakistan. But the war headlines only get part of the credit. Bonds also got a boost from news that the DOJ dropped its case against Powell, thus paving the way for a Warsh confirmation. In the market’s view, this improves the odds of a rate cut in 2026, even if only slightly.  2yr yields rallied much more than 10s, as one would expect when markets are trading Fed rate expectations. 

Market Movement Recap

08:49 AM Roughly unchanged after modest 2-way volatility. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.321

09:40 AM moving into weaker territory. MBS down 1 tick (.03) on the day and over an eighth from the early price plateau. 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.338

10:19 AM 10yr at lows of day, down 2.2bps at 4.303. MBS up 6 ticks (.19). Move follows new of DOJ potentially dropping Powell case

01:19 PM Mostly sideways since last update. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.311

Same Old Story For Pending Home Sales

Short version: The Pending Home Sales Index remains in the same low, narrow, sideways range that’s been intact for 3 years. The good news is that there’s been a reliable floor. The bad news is that the top of the range lines up with the historic lows seen in 2010 (April 2020 notwithstanding).  Longer version: Pending home sales moved modestly higher in March, breaking from recent softness but remaining within a relatively subdued range. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) increased 1.5% month over month while declining 1.1% compared with the same time last year. The monthly gain suggests some underlying demand resilience, even as mortgage rates remained elevated. However, on an annual basis, contract activity continues to reflect a market still working through affordability constraints and uneven buyer participation. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that, ” Contract signings rose in March despite higher mortgage rates, pointing to pent-up housing demand… A greater supply of inventory will help translate that demand into more home sales. ” He added that demand remains particularly rate-sensitive among first-time and younger buyers, underscoring the need for additional supply in smaller, more affordable homes. Regional performance remained mixed. The Northeast and South posted monthly gains, while the Midwest and West saw declines. On a year-over-year basis, only the South recorded an increase, with the remaining regions continuing to trend lower — highlighting ongoing regional divergence in housing activity.