Weekend Selling Reverses After Another Round of De-Escalation Headlines

Weekend Selling Reverses After Another Round of De-Escalation Headlines

Another day, another chance to sort through a barrage of war-related headlines to see which ones mattered to the bond market. In today’s case, there were two distinct contenders. The first was apparently bogus. It referred to Iran considering abandoning its enrichment program and it actually caused a visible surge in volume and volatility. The second contender was a batch of headlines around 12:30ET that generally spoke to de-escalation potential and negotiation possibilities. All told, it was enough to reverse the overnight weakness seen after negotiations were allegedly abandoned.

Econ Data / Events

Existing home sales (Mar)

3.98M vs 4.06M f’cast, 4.09M prev

Market Movement Recap

09:23 AM Slightly weaker at the open, but mostly recovered now. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.325

01:26 PM Best levels. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1bp at 4.305

03:36 PM Holding near best levels with MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.297

Bonds Drift Weaker Despite Lower Oil Prices

Bonds Drift Weaker Despite Lower Oil Prices

Although they still technically made positive progress versus the end of last week, bonds ended the day moderately weaker. Lower oil prices offered no support, but that’s a tricky correlation these days. Longer-term oil contracts continue lining up with bond yield movement more reliably. To be sure, we can at least consider the impact of this morning’s CPI data based on decent trading volume at the time and a reversal of the sideways to slightly stronger momentum in the preceding few hours, but it’s impossible to say that it continued weighing on bonds for the rest of the session.

Econ Data / Events

m/m CORE CPI (Mar)

0.2% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.2% prev

m/m Headline CPI (Mar)

0.9% vs 0.9% f’cast, 0.3% prev

y/y CORE CPI (Mar)

2.6% vs 2.7% f’cast, 2.5% prev

y/y Headline CPI (Mar)

3.3% vs 3.3% f’cast, 2.4% prev

Market Movement Recap

10:58 AM Slightly weaker this AM but leveling off with MBS unchanged and 10yr up 3bps at 4.306

12:46 PM weakest levels. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.319

03:35 PM flat for the past few hours with MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.316

Mortgage Demand Contracted at a Slower Pace Last Week

Mortgage applications dipped again last week, though the pace of decline slowed considerably. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.8% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 3. Refinance activity continued to weaken, with the Refinance Index falling 3% from the previous week and now sitting 4% below year-ago levels. The slowdown reflects a sharp drop in borrower incentive following the recent run-up in rates. Purchase activity showed modest resilience, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rising 1% from the prior week. However, demand remains softer overall, with purchase applications down 7% compared to the same time last year—the first annual decline since early 2025. MBA’s Joel Kan said “higher mortgage rates and continued economic uncertainty weighed down on mortgage applications again last week,” adding that refinance demand has dropped to its lowest level since December 2025. He also pointed out that some segments of the market are holding up better, particularly FHA and ARM loans, which continue to benefit from relatively lower rates and improving housing inventory in certain markets. Application composition shifted slightly, with refinance share decreasing to 44.3% from 45.3% the prior week. ARM share increased to 8.6% . FHA share edged down to 19.3% , while VA share held steady at 16.1% and USDA share remained unchanged at 0.5% .