Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading began. Yields were still slightly higher at 7:30am but moved lower after headlines cited rumors that the U.S. agreed to lift Iran’s oil sanctions. Subsequent headlines cited a revised counter-proposal from Iran in which it would accept a long-term freeze of its nuclear program in exchange for a truce and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bonds rallied on both those newswires with 10s making it below 4.57. They’re since reversed course on a 3rd set of newswires citing Iran’s negotiators as saying U.S. demand remain excessive despite the changes in the draft proposal.
The chart below shows all 3 sets of newswires and the corresponding movement in oil/bonds with strong correlation.

For those of you who like maps, here’s one of the states’ closing costs. And here’s something for companies who have training programs: New hires should check out the Business Glossary from MISMO. It covers business processes, events, calculations, documents, forms, regulations, AI terminology, and more. LOs of various ages tell me that people in their 20s not only are inclined to rent to “see how the weather is” but also because of money. LendingTree’s latest report shows U.S. homeowners with a mortgage now pay 37 percent more per month than renters, underscoring how sharply monthly housing costs have climbed in recent years. “Rent wins in every major metro, even in the tightest markets. When it costs so much more to own than to rent every month, it forces people who want to own a home to face some tough decisions, including potentially having to relocate to another city in search of reasonably priced property. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by TransUnion. Discover how data-driven mortgage intelligence is helping lenders identify in-market borrowers, strengthen portfolio performance, personalize outreach, retain customers, and drive smarter growth in an increasingly competitive housing market. Today’s has an interview with Lower’s Craig Montgomery on how strategic leadership is shaping lender growth in 2026 through effective team building, evolving production trends, competitive retail execution, and strong real estate agent relationships.)

Achieve launches a correspondent channel for its fixed-rate HELOC, Deephaven ups its loan limit to $1M, and Planet expands into non-agency TPO products including non-QM and DSCR loans.

A shareholder who claims no bias between United Wholesale Mortgage and CrossCountry Mortgage suggests the servicer must answer to recent allegations.

The government-sponsored enterprise sees current rate levels likely to stick for longer compared to past forecasts, with the Iran War looming in the background.

The Real Brokerage’s Agent Optimism Index, which measures agents’ 12-month outlook, increased to 64 in April from 62 in March, but still below February’s 70.3.

Standard & Poor’s found modeled foreclosure frequency and loss coverage to be in similar ranges as classic FICO but showed concern about potential bias.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a highly technical research paper this week examining how the agency handled missing shelter inflation data during the October 2025 government funding lapse. The issue stemmed from the CPI’s housing survey, which was unable to collect rent data during the shutdown period. With no fresh survey results available, BLS relied on a “carry-forward” methodology that essentially treated rents as unchanged for the affected sample. That decision temporarily froze the CPI’s rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) indexes in October 2025, likely making shelter inflation appear somewhat cooler than it actually was for the next several months. In the new paper, BLS tested several alternative approaches to estimate what shelter inflation may have looked like under different assumptions. Every alternative method produced firmer rent and OER inflation readings than the official CPI figures published at the time. Depending on the methodology used, the research suggests shelter inflation may have been understated by roughly 0.3% to 0.6% on a year-over-year basis during the affected stretch. That may sound minor, but for markets closely tracking inflation and Fed policy expectations, a few tenths can matter. Still, BLS stressed that the distortion was temporary rather than structural. Once the affected housing panel was surveyed again in April 2026, both the official indexes and the research indexes largely converged back to similar levels. In other words, April’s housing inflation essentially counted two 6-month cycles’ worth. Thus, monthly housing inflation was more like 0.3 than 0.6.

Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day

Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of the trading day. The key market movers were in place at the start of domestic trading. From an analytical standpoint, the morning commentary adequately recaps the day’s bond market motivations. Yields continued drifting higher throughout the session as investors pulled out of both sides of the market in protest of the apparent extension of the Iran war timeframe. 10s ultimately tapped 4.6% and MBS flirted with a 3/4th point day-over-day drop. In the bigger picture, mortgage rates are doing much better than Treasuries compared to last year’s levels thanks to GSE bond buying.

Econ Data / Events

NY Fed Manufacturing (May)

19.60 vs 7.5 f’cast, 11.00 prev

Industrial Production (Apr)

0.7% vs 0.3% f’cast, -0.5% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:26 AM Sharply weaker overnight. MBS down more than 3/8ths and 10yr up 6.5bps at 4.55

11:47 AM weakest levels. MBS down 5/8ths and 10yr up 10.2bps at 4.586

02:47 PM MBS now down .75 and 10yr up 11bps at 4.595

Existing-home sales edged slightly higher in April, stabilizing after March’s decline as improving affordability and increased inventory provided modest support for buyers. Sales increased 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million , matching the pace seen one year ago. “Despite mixed macroeconomic signals—including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence—home sales were modestly boosted by the continued improvement in housing affordability,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He also noted that mortgage rates remain lower than a year ago while income growth continues to outpace home price appreciation. Inventory continued to improve in April, though supply remains relatively constrained by historical standards. Total housing inventory climbed to 1.47 million units , up 5.8% from March and 1.4% higher than a year ago, representing a 4.4-month supply of homes. “Inventory still remains tight,” Yun said, adding that multiple offers are still occurring in some markets even as buyers take more time to make purchasing decisions. Home prices continued to move higher nationally, though appreciation remained relatively modest. The median existing-home price increased to $417,700 , up 0.9% year-over-year and marking the 34th consecutive month of annual price gains. Affordability improved compared to last year across all regions. The Housing Affordability Index registered at 110.6 in April, up from 101.4 one year earlier, reflecting the combination of slower home price growth, easing rates, and stronger household incomes.