Included among the social media posts made by the new FHFA director was a request for public comment on how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might be improved.

The private market is increasingly testing credit metrics aimed at growing originations without adding risk as a larger effort to this end has slowed.

Recall 2 weeks ago that news of the incoming German Chancellor’s ambitions to massively increase debt/spending led to the end of the bond rally in the US that took 10yr yields from 4.55 to 4.15%. The resulting bounce in US Treasuries was limited to roughly 15bps.  Meanwhile, Germany’s equivalent 10yr yields spiked 3 times as much, with the March 5th being the worst day for German bonds since 1989 (fall of Berlin Wall). At the time, it wasn’t a given that the debt ceiling increase could pass muster in Germany’s constitutional court and parliament, but as of this morning, it’s a done deal. Thankfully, it seems markets already had this fully priced in.

Meanwhile, the US bond market’s consolidation continues in stunningly perfect fashion ahead of tomorrow’s Fed dot plot.

If you ask a technical analyst, the chart above is a classic consolidation (or triangle, pennant), and it carries one of several connotations. Some say they’re predictive, but the only reliable prediction is that such consolidations can’t last forever (after all, the white lines are about to converge). The Fed’s dot plot probably has the power to cause a breakout in one direction or the other, but incoming economic data would have to agree with the move if it’s to be sustained. 

As we often discuss, mortgage lenders prefer to set their rates once per day. They only make changes when the underlying bond market makes a big enough move. While it wasn’t an extreme example, many lenders made such changes today as bonds improved steadily throughout the day.  Before the improvements, the average lender was offering slightly higher rates compared to yesterday. After the improvement, today’s rates are a hair lower than yesterday’s. In both cases, rates continue holding inside a narrow range just off the best levels since mid October. There were several economic reports this morning, but they didn’t have a material impact on rates.  Tomorrow’s key event is the Fed announcement and press conference.  This announcement is one of only 4 per year where the Fed will update its rate projections–something that often causes volatility across the rate spectrum. Those projections come out at 2pm ET and Fed Chair Powell holds the customary press conference 30 minutes later. We’re not expecting any specific outcome in terms of the direction of movement in mortgage rates and in general, this Fed announcement is a bit less consequential than many recent examples. Nonetheless, potential volatility is always factor on Fed days, even if the volatility doesn’t materialize. 

Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day

4 out of the year’s 8 Fed announcements include an updated dot plot (i.e. a chart of each Fed member’s projection for the Fed Funds Rate at the end of the next few years). Dots have come to be viewed as one of the biggest potential flashpoints for rate volatility, but their actual track record is hit and miss.  Over the past few years, they’ve done more to simply add context or push-back to the tone conveyed in the statement or press conference, but have stopped short of re-writing the momentum narrative. This week’s example should fit right in. We know the Fed won’t hike and we know the dots won’t be making the sort of huge leaps seen on several recent occasions. As for today, it was pleasant, but boring, with a slightly weaker start giving way to mild rally into the close–just another day inside the multi-week consolidation.  

Econ Data / Events

Building Permits

1.456M vs 1.450M f’cast

Housing Starts

1.501M vs 1.380M f’cast

Industrial Production

0.7 vs 0.2 f’cast

Market Movement Recap

10:20 AM Sideways to slightly weaker overnight but bouncing back now.  MBS and 10yr both exactly unchanged. 

01:34 PM rallying all morning with additional gains after 20yr auction.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09).  10yr down 2bps at 4.281

03:15 PM Off the best levels now, but still stronger on the day.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.276 (about 1bp up from lows).

The calendar pages flip. We’re in mortgage conference season again in hotels around the nation, and why not have a little fun leaving your quarters (especially when the hotel room is registered under someone else’s name, cuz you probably won’t be welcomed back)? Yes, time flies. It’s been two years since Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, leading plenty of pundits to suggest the U.S. banking system was going to crumble. Of course, they were wrong, and our banking system did not crumble because of it, which is certainly a good thing. But in terms of crumbling, remember when Florida’s Surfside Condos collapsed four years ago? In condo selling and financing news, the talk is about “the blacklist maintained by Fannie Mae and includes condo associations that the mortgage finance giant thinks don’t have adequate property insurance or need to make critical building repairs… According to lenders and real-estate agents, Fannie Mae greatly expanded the list after the condo collapse killed 98 people. Compounding the problem, a nationwide insurance crisis is making it more expensive for condo associations to afford adequate coverage.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CoreLogic. Whether it’s using cash to purchase a home, debt consolidation, or a straight cash-out refinance, CoreLogic’s Precision Marketing’s data-driven insights pinpoint your best opportunities to retain and recapture your clients. Today’s has an interview with Experian’s Ken Tromer and Ted Wentzel on why price transparency is important in the verification process, and how Experian Verify ensures it.)

Large mortgage companies are targeting mergers and acquisitions as well as home equity lending in their 2025 business plans, Boston Consulting Group said.

Measures of current sales of single-family homes and prospective-buyer traffic, dropped to their lowest levels since the end of 2023.

Rocket said the Redfin deal is part of a purchase mortgage strategy, but originating and retaining residential mortgages in portfolio is the real endgame writes the chairman of Whalen Global Advisors.

An ex-Biden administration official suggested potential challenges in identifying lands that have access to both employment opportunities and infrastructure.