Ahead of next week’s MBA Advocacy event in Washington DC, I received this note from an industry vet. “With the continued consolidation into the large non-banks, are you hearing any rumbling about the level of risk building in these less regulated and less capital-intensive entities? If we are likely to face a recession, with rising delinquencies but rising refinances due to lower rates, are we ready for that as an industry? For the most part big banks have reduced their servicing portfolio size, but is the Trump Administration looking to weaken regulation right into a potential crisis?” Good questions for next week in DC. The headlines are certainly dominated by tariff policy, which, along with the impact of tariffs, is out of the hands of the Federal Reserve. Tariffs may, over the long term, help the trade numbers, but what about our budget? U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that the federal government could reach the debt ceiling as soon as May or June, in line with the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate that the Treasury may exhaust its accounting measures by August or September. So, lenders can keep an eye on the impact of that on interest rates and demand for our securities. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Calque. Calque provides a binding backup offer on your borrower’s departing residence to clear the existing mortgage balance and closing costs in 48 business hours or less. Today’s features an interview with NAF’s Miguel Villegas on how cash borrowers are driving bidding conditions for various metros around the nation.)