Small Scale Weakness Leaves Bigger Picture Unchanged

Bonds began the day in stronger territory after tracing a risk-off move in the overnight session. Much like yesterday, 9:30am brought a momentum reversal, both for stocks and bonds, thus beginning a slow march back into weaker territory. Bonds might have stayed green if not for tariff headlines at noon ET which resulted in a modest nudge for stock prices and bond yields simultaneously (probably… it was so small that it could easily be seen as noise).  Either way, the bigger picture was completely unaffected.  Bonds are sideways near their strongest levels in months while they wait for guidance from data on the next big move. 

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

223k vs 224k f’cast, 221k prev

Philly Fed Index

12.5 vs 8.5 f’cast, 18.1 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:30 AM Moderately stronger overnight but giving back gains now.  MBS still up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.1bp at 4.23

02:38 PM Lows of the day.  MBS unchanged and 10yr yields up 2.1bps at 4.252

04:40 PM Very flat since last update.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.25