Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead

Wednesday ended up being almost exclusively about the Job Openings data in the morning.  Bonds were fairly flat before that and rallied sharply afterward.  Once the initial reaction ran its course (in mere minutes), the rest of the day was an uneventful drift in a rate-friendly direction.  Yields hit the 3pm close several bps under the 3.80% technical level in 10s, which makes this a bit of a “lead-off” to whatever extent you were planning on the 3.8-4.0 range remaining intact until Friday’s jobs report.   In other news, the yield curve uninverted at times–a fact that means nothing about the future even though you’ll certainly see claims to the contrary.

Econ Data / Events

Job Openings 

7.673m vs 8.100m f’cast
last mo revised to 7.91 from 8.18

Job Quits

3.277 vs 3.282m prev
(lower is better for bonds)

Market Movement Recap

10:08 AM modestly stronger overnight with additional gains after JOLTS data.  MBS up 6 ticks and 10yr down 4.7bps at 3.785

12:44 PM Sideways near best levels.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19).  10yr down 5 bps at 3.782

03:17 PM Best levels of the day with MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 7bps at  3.763