No Major Data. No Major Drama

While today’s economic calendar was not necessarily “empty,” it may as well have been in terms of market movement potential.  Home prices came in hotter according to FHFA, but bonds never care about home price indices (apart from the housing meltdown, perhaps). Same story for new home sales which tanked due to Hurricane Milton. Consumer confidence and the 5yr auction were right in line with expectations, thus leaving only the Fed Minutes at 2pm.  The Fed couldn’t possibly have said anything interesting 3 weeks ago that we haven’t already heard several of them say in the past 3 weeks.  Therefore, it was never likely to inspire bond market movement. We’re left with a modest correction to yesterday’s rally and a day of mostly flat trading into the 3pm CME close.  Wednesday could be a bit jumpier depending on the data and month-end trading uncertainty. 

Econ Data / Events

FHFA Home Prices

0.7 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.4 prev

Case Shiller Home Prices

-0.3 vs -0.3 prev

Annual Case Shiller Prices

4.6 vs 4.8 f’cast, 5.2 prev

Annual FHFA Home Prices

4.4 vs 4.4 prev

New Home Sales

610k vs 730k f’cast

Consumer Confidence

111.7 vs 111.3 f’cast

Market Movement Recap

09:12 AM Bonds drift sideways to slightly weaker overnight.  MBS down only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.2 bps at 4.296

10:25 AM Off the AM highs with MBS now down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 4.4bps at 4.319

01:03 PM Ho hum 5yr auction. Bonds little changed ad modestly weaker levels.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.307

02:05 PM No response to Fed minutes and no change to levels from the last update