Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation

Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation

Bonds were arguably consolidating ahead of last Friday’s jobs report with the reaction representing a bit of a bullish breakout.  Since then, there’s been a quick and obvious re-consolidation back in line with last week’s M-Th levels. Today added to that process with most of the selling taking place by the start of the US trading session. Perhaps some of the selling has been an attempt to make room for this week’s Treasury auctions, but there’s no question that Wednesday morning’s CPI data is the last significant piece of the puzzle that the Fed will receive before deciding “to cut or not to cut” next week.  The market knows this, of course.  As such, a big deviation from forecasts would definitely be enough to get things moving.

Market Movement Recap

09:13 AM Modest weakness overnight. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.225.

12:50 PM MBS sideways, still down 5 ticks (.16). 10yr up 4bps at 4.239.

03:23 PM Some strength in PM hours.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.223

Inconsequential Weakness

Inconsequential Weakness

Bonds lost a moderate amount of ground on Monday with 10yr yields moving back above the levels seen before last Friday’s jobs report.  MBS  didn’t lose quite as much ground thanks to their higher correlation with shorter-dated Treasuries these days.  There were no significant economic reports and it was the lowest volume day of the year so far–a stunning reality considering that honor would usually go to the Friday after Thanksgiving. In addition to the low volume qualifier, today’s weakness is inconsequential simply because it keeps bonds right in line with the flat-line in yields seen over the past 6 trading days.  If anything, Friday was the outlier there and today is just another day with 10yr yields near 4.20. It’s also just another day where bonds are grinding sideways as they wait for bigger inspiration. 

Econ Data / Events

Wholesale Inventories

0.2 vs 0.2 f’cast, -0.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:04 AM Initially stronger overnight, then weaker in Europe and in early domestic session.  MBS down almost an eighth.  10yr up 3.6 bps at 4.191

01:51 PM Unchanged from previous levels in MBS.  10yr now up only 3.3bps at 4.187

04:19 PM Weakest levels now with MBS down 6 ticks on the day and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.196