“Pro tip” to start the week: Be sure to bring up politics at your family’s Thanksgiving dinner. You’ll save a lot of money on Christmas gifts. A tip that I posted last week received a lot of thanks: If your business is an LLC or corporation, including a single member LLC, you must fill out this form by the end of 2024. Many companies are thankful for home equity loans, and here’s another tip: know your customer. TD Bank released two surveys: its 2024 HELOC Trend Watch Survey, which looks at how homeowners are using their equity, and 2024 Merry Money Survey, which examines shopping and money management habits around the holidays. To the surprise of no LO, 66 percent of homeowners view their homes as a source of generational wealth, and 73 percent of Gen Zers and 66 percent of Millennials indicated they’re likely to apply for a HELOC or home equity loan in the next 18 months. 41 of adults are saving for a major life event this holiday season, with retirement (13%) and buying a home (11%) being the most prevalent savings buckets. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework. By connecting every verification method into one platform, Truework helps lenders eliminate process disruptions, maintain a competitive borrower experience, and reduce the fiscal impact of verifying income. Hear an interview with Polunsky Beitel Green’s Marty Green on why the Fed is still maintaining a restrictive monetary policy but acknowledging that the need for drastic measures is over.)

Of all of Trump’s political appointees, Treasury Secretary is the most consequential for the bond market (“Treasury” is right in the title, after all!). Bessent got the nod on Friday night after the close, so there was no opportunity to witness a market reaction.  When Treasuries opened in Tokyo last night, the reaction was clear: bonds like Bessent.  This is logical considering several of his comments regarding the need for fiscal restraint as well as the gradual layering of tariffs. Bottom line: this isn’t a big picture game changer but it’s solid contribution to a fiscal policy backdrop that can coexist with lower rates in the future, assuming economic growth and inflation allow for lower rates.

Hedge fund manager Scott Bessent had been the betting favorite to take the reins at Treasury. Scott Turner, a former congressman and NFL player, will lead the housing agency.

Turner served as executive director of the White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council previously.

In its latest financial stability report, the Federal Reserve warned high equity valuations and low levels of liquidity could leave the financial system vulnerable to shocks.

Freddie Mac is offering a municipal bond option for investors in its ML multifamily securitization offerings starting with its December issuance.

The rezoning plan, known as City of Yes for Housing Opportunity, passed a key City Council subcommittee hurdle Thursday after the vote was delayed more than six hours while council members tweaked controversial aspects of the deal.

Investors bought 15.9% of U.S. homes sold in Q3, according to Redfin, a level similar to 2018 and 2019, when the share was around 14%.

The development is the latest in an ongoing series of initiatives the Department of Housing and Urban Development has introduced to encourage growth of the factory-built construction segment.

Getting Back to Normal, For a Few Days Anyway

After a decidedly abnormal 6 weeks beginning in early October, bonds began to calm down last week.  This offered some hope that the brisk volatility and selling pressure was subsiding.  With 10yr yields closing inside a 3bp range for 5 days in a row, the restoration of normality is basically confirmed.  Today’s data didn’t have a big impact, but we wouldn’t expect it to (based on the mixed signals).  Bonds continue waiting on early December data for the next big push in one direction or the other.  The upcoming week is always a bit of a wild card due to the holiday and month-end, but the fact remains that there are no truly top tier market movers.

Econ Data / Events

S&P Services PMI

57.0 vs 55.2 f’cast, 55.0 prev

Consumer Sentiment

71.8 vs 73.7 f’cast, 70.5 prev

1yr inflation expectations 

unchanged 

Market Movement Recap

11:29 AM stronger overnight and steadily weaker during domestic hours.  MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1.1bps at 4.409

01:39 PM Little changed from last update.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.9bps at 4.412

03:58 PM Super sideways, all day, but a bit stronger for MBS, now up an eighth of a point.  10yr down half a bp at 4.417.