Home price appreciation pulled back slightly at the end of last year, according to December data from both FHFA and S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller. The reports reinforce the message that prices continued to appreciate modestly through the end of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index shows home prices up 1.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 0.8% quarter-over-quarter . On a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.1% in December , suggesting continued but subdued momentum. On a 3-month basis (which helps smooth out month-to-month volatility while still capturing more granular movement), appreciation has recovered from the early 2025 dip and is back in a normal pre-pandemic range. State- and regional-level data underscore the ongoing divergence. House prices rose in 41 states over the past year, led by North Dakota (+6.4%), Delaware (+6.3%), Illinois (+6.1%), Wisconsin (+5.7%), and Michigan (+5.5%). Florida posted the largest annual decline (-2.7%). Among census divisions, the East North Central region led with a 5.0% annual gain, while the Mountain division recorded a slight decline (-0.2%). The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 1.3% year-over-year gain in December, down slightly from 1.4% previously and marking the weakest full-year performance since 2011. After seasonal adjustment, the national index rose 0.4% month-over-month . The 20-City Composite showed a 1.4% annual gain , unchanged from the prior month, and increased 0.5% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Can’t you feel the anticipation building? March 5th… Trigger leads… Don’t tell me that you’ve forgotten all about it. When a borrower applies for a mortgage and their credit is pulled, that data has historically been sold as a “trigger lead” and dozens of calls are received. Starting March 5, according to the law, credit bureaus can no longer sell trigger leads, the borrower’s lender can still contact them, and the current servicer may also reach out. Originators are reminding clients that online forms and third-party sites can still resell their information, so where they click still matters. Meanwhile, our MBA and others continue to tell the Administration that the costs lender incur in providing financing for homes is passed on to borrowers whose loans actually fund. “Talk about affordability……why don’t the agencies bring down rates by lowering loan level price adjustments (LLPAs) and guarantee fees (GFs). It is evident that they are overpricing credit risk.” When was the last time you heard a government official talk about lowering homeowner’s insurance costs, condo fees, or permitting & utility costs? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by FirstClose, a leading home equity technology platform that combines digital application, automated workflows, integrated vendor management, and seamless LOS connectivity, to turn home equity into a scalable, predictable growth engine. Hear an interview with MakeMyMove’s Evan Hock on new data that shows that many financially stable, middle-income households are being priced out of homeownership in major metros not by monthly affordability but by lack of access, prompting relocations to smaller regional hubs where similar housing costs unlock ownership, stability, and better quality of life.)

The fourth quarter results integrated the operations of both Redfin and Mr. Cooper into Rocket Cos., with the deals likely contributing to the full year loss.

MBS buying has become the near-term focus but a 2026 offering is still possible, Federal Housing Finance Agency official Bill Pulte told Fox Business.

Rocket Mortgage and Compass launched a three-year Redfin listing partnership, expanding access to 500,000+ homes, with executives saying they see no RESPA compliance issues.

While overall delinquencies eased in January, foreclosure starts jumped to their highest point since early 2020, signaling growing strain among late-stage borrowers despite steady mortgage performance.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., moved to consider the housing package next week, but it’s not clear what version of the bill senators will be voting on as the House, Senate and White House are still negotiating priorities.

Knock Knock Knockin’ on 10yr Floor

Sometimes, it’s a shame that the 7yr Treasury isn’t the most popular bond market benchmark. If it were, today’s headline could reference “knockin’ on 7’s floor.” Whether it’s the 3.77 level in the 7yr Treasury yield or 4.0% in the 10yr, bonds are repeatedly approaching these “floor” levels over the past 2 weeks and today’s installment was the best yet–even if only barely.  Yet again, there’s not much for the bond market to hang its hat on in terms of motivations this week if not for the general stock market malaise. Apart from that, one would have to venture a guess that bond traders are discounting economic fallout from trade/geopolitical uncertainty, but there’s no objective way to measure those vibes in the short term. 

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Feb)/14

1,833K vs 1860K f’cast, 1869K prev

Jobless Claims (Feb)/21

212K vs 215K f’cast, 206K prev

Market Movement Recap

08:36 AM Choppy and sideways overnight, but in a narrow range. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.039

01:10 PM MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.019

02:21 PM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.024

03:52 PM best levels of the day with MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.01

Given that we have the somewhat unpopular job of reporting that today’s average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is 6.00 again, rather than the 5.99 seen earlier this week, we can at least find one glowingly positive development as a silver lining. In fact, the silver lining is more than a consolation prize. It’s actually better news than another day at 5.99% would have been.  First off, there’s no functional difference between 6.00 and 5.99 when it comes to our daily rate index. A vast majority (95%+) of borrowers would see the exact same rate quotes on either day. As such, it’s far better news that the daily average has been 5.995 over the past 4 days (2 days at 6.00 and 2 at 5.99). That’s easily the lowest weekly average in more than 3 years, and the stability means that more borrowers are able to hear that news and act accordingly.  NOTE: if you happen to see separate news today regarding rates hitting 5.98%, that would be coverage of Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. You can use the chart below to explore long-term comparisons between our daily average, Freddie Mac, and MBA. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

The latest example is ICE Mortgage Technology launching its new Homeowner Portal, powered by LERETA’s tax tracking data, “giving homeowners real-time visibility into their property tax and insurance payment information. The integration enhances transparency for borrowers while helping servicers improve efficiency and reduce inbound customer inquiries.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by FirstClose, a leading home equity technology platform that combines digital application, automated workflows, integrated vendor management, and seamless LOS connectivity, to turn home equity into a scalable, predictable growth engine. Hear an interview with Yardi’s Doug Ressler on the post-pandemic structural shifts driving affordable housing construction to outpace overall apartment development, how regional differences reflect policy and migration trends, and what distinguishes metros that successfully deliver projects from those that stall.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Less back-and-forth. More first-time-right verifications. Truework replaces manual verification waterfalls with a single automated platform, so underwriters, LOs, and ops can cut down the document chasing, conflicting numbers, and last-minute corrections. Lenders see up to 50 percent cost savings on verifications, with faster turn times, higher accuracy, and stronger R&W relief. Trusted by 4 of the top 5 lenders in the U.S., Truework gives your team verification results they can rely on. Learn more.