A frequent topic in this Commentary is how lenders are responsible for only a small portion of the affordability issue. A big hit to affordability is insurance, and thank you to Kevin K. for passing along this story focused on fire resilience and home upgrades and how they may address insurance costs. Trying to plan for natural events is a full-time job that occupies many, as is thinking about the future of technology. On today’s Last Word presented by TRUE at 1PM ET, Brian Vieaux, Courtney Thompson, and Kevin Peranio break down a busy week across mortgage and capital markets, including hot takes on technology amid recent industry shifts. The panel also examines Venezuela’s potential market impact, shares projections for 2026, and wraps with each host offering their word or resolution for the year ahead. (Today’s podcast can be found here. Today’s has interview with loanDepot’s Jeff Dergurahian on the key data shaping 2026 forecasts, challenges to market consensus on rates and volume, and how originators can translate economic uncertainty into trusted, client-centric guidance.) PHH Webinar Series PHH Mortgage is excited to offer free webinars (live and on-demand) on a variety of topics. Next week, they will host two webinars on PHH’s non-Agency product line, FlexIQ. On Tuesday, January 13 at 1 pm EST, “PHH Mortgage Presents: Introduction to FlexIQ,” and on Thursday, January 15 at 12 pm EST, “PHH Mortgage Presents: FlexIQ Bank Statement Essentials.” Register for these courses or view archived courses here.

The jobs report came out mixed with payrolls falling 10k short of the 60k forecast and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.4% vs a 4.5% forecast. The unemployment rate decline is mitigated somewhat by the decline in labor force participation.  All in all, this is not a lopsided report with any chance of sparking a rapid move in bonds.  That said, MBS are moving rapidly higher and it has nothing to do with data and everything to do with last night’s announcement of the administration’s plans to buy $200bln in MBS.  Simply put, Treasuries are roughly unchanged while MBS are up half a point. 
The chart below shows the dichotomy. Note that MBS prices have been inverted to show correlation with TSY yields (i.e. lower blue line = stronger MBS):

The rule, effective July 7, puts into place requirements similar to those for banks, except nonbanks do not have to make community investments or grants.

US President Donald Trump said he was directing the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds, which he cast as his latest effort to bring down housing costs ahead of the November midterm election.

Yields across maturities were higher by less than three basis points after rebounding from session lows.

The 30-year fixed remains in its current range, but most expect the rate to reach 6% for 2026, and one observer feels it could actually break under this point.

Across-the-board decreases across all loan types drove the Mortgage Bankers Association’s full credit availability index to its lowest in three months.

Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday’s Jobs Report

Bonds lost a bit of ground on Thursday with most of the weakness seen in the overnight session in sympathy with European bond market weakness. The rest of the selling followed a stronger weekly jobless claims report.  That said, we wouldn’t give the data all the credit based on the timing of the selling and additional back-and-forth throughout the day. Tomorrow is far more interesting anyway. It brings what many view as the first clean reading of the big jobs report since before the government shutdown. Point being: the market will likely be more willing to react to any result that falls far from the median forecast–especially if the job count and unemployment rate both make the same case.

Econ Data / Events

Challenger layoffs (Dec)

35.553K vs — f’cast, 71.321K prev

Continued Claims (Dec)/27

1,914K vs 1900K f’cast, 1866K prev

Jobless Claims (Jan)/03

208K vs 210K f’cast, 199K prev

Trade Gap (Oct)

-29.40B vs $-58.9B f’cast, $-52.8B prev

Market Movement Recap

08:54 AM Weaker overnight with Europe and additional selling after Jobless Claims data. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.181

01:05 PM Sideways near opening levels. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.174

03:02 PM Same same.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.182

Mortgage rates were just a hair higher for the average lender on Thursday. The underlying bond market lost some ground following a stronger weekly Jobless Claims report and in sympathy with global bond market weakness overnight.  Because rates are based on bonds, when bonds are weaker, rates move higher. There are many different economic reports that deal with the jobs market, but none more important than the Employment Situation released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics–the one typically referred to simply as “the jobs report.”  This month’s jobs report will be released at 8:30am ET on Friday morning. Mortgage lenders don’t set their rates for the day until the 9am hour at the earliest, and that’s plenty of time for the data to send the bond market on a wild ride. If the jobs report is stronger than expected, rates will likely be higher, and vice versa. One final note: any economic report with high volatility potential can also have a limited impact. It all depends on how the data comes in. All we can know ahead of time is that the range of potential movement in rates is higher after reports like this.  

“Warning: don’t use your pet’s name for your password. We were hacked, and had to change our dog’s name.” “Experts” are saying that passwords will be on the way out in 2026 as passkeys take over. Good, as I am tired of carrying around a notebook with my usernames and passwords for dozens of sites. For fans of artificial intelligence (AI), we have news that a) AI generated weather predictions are making up new towns, and b) Utah is allowing AI to prescribe medicine to humans. (Taking that to an extreme, is sure sounds like the plot of a sci fi movie where us humans are unwitting slaves to computers through drugs in our food.) OpenAI has launched ChatGPT Health which wants access to your medical records. What could possibly go wrong? On the mortgage side of things, Newrez has made an investment in HomeVision to create an AI-driven mortgage underwriting platform, enabling an industry-first solution designed to deliver real-time mortgage decisions across loan types. Meanwhile, Volkswagen is bringing back physical buttons to its dashboards. Yay! (Today’s podcast can be found here. Today’s has an interview with the Texas Stock Exchange’s Jeff Karcher on the origins of the TXSE, why its founders believe U.S. markets need more competition, and how its 2026 launch aims to reshape capital markets through technology-driven trading and long-term vision.) Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services Primis Mortgage is excited to announce the launch of its latest innovation in home financing: the Access Total Mortgage (ATM) loan, a principal-first lending solution designed to give mortgage professionals a more flexible option for today’s borrowers. The ATM loan combines a mortgage, checking account, and a HELOC into one integrated account, allowing deposits to immediately reduce principal while maintaining access to funds, without refinancing. Structured as a non-traditional, 30-year HELOC with an integrated sweep-checking account, the ATM loan supports ongoing liquidity and efficient cash-flow management. Funds can be accessed through standard banking channels, providing flexibility for evolving borrower needs. This solution is available to qualified borrowers with a minimum initial draw of $150,000 and reflects Primis Mortgage’s continued focus on innovative, relationship-driven lending solutions. Learn more about the ATM loan and how it fits into Primis Mortgage’s forward-looking lending platform.