Stronger Start, Mostly Before ADP Data

10yr yields are almost 4bps lower in early trading and the ADP employment report came in at -32k vs a +10k forecast. The logical conclusion would be that the data is responsible for the rally, but there was actually a remarkably light reaction to the data, both in terms of volume and volatility.  Most of the gains arrived between 6am and 7:30am ET and yields are actually back in line with pre-ADP levels by 8:30am.  The morning’s next big report is ISM Services at 10am ET.

In Congress, bank regulators defend Trump agenda

In a relatively mild oversight hearing in the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday morning, regulatory heads at the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, National Credit Union Administration and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. outlined plans for reduced capital requirements and debanking enforcement.

Steady Gains Throughout The Day

Steady Gains Throughout The Day

Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory although MBS were fairly quick to get back to ‘unchanged’ while 10yr Treasuries couldn’t duplicate that feat until the afternoon. There were no clear correlations with other markets and no notable risks on the econ calendar. The gains were slow and steady enough to suggest an absence of discrete catalysts. That could change on Wednesday with the confluence of ADP and ISM Services–both capable of influencing the bond market, even before the shutdown data dynamics temporarily magnified private data’s importance.

Econ Data / Events

ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov)

44.0 vs — f’cast, 46.0 prev

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

48.2 vs 48.6 f’cast, 48.7 prev

ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Nov)

58.5 vs 59.5 f’cast, 58.0 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:38 AM Weaker start, but bouncing back a bit now.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr yield up 1bp at 4.098

01:13 PM Best levels of the day with MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up only half a bp at 4.092

03:43 PM Just a bit stronger. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 0.1bps at 4.087