Bonds were fairly flat overnight and haven’t moved much so far in the domestic session. More importantly, until 7am, bonds were slightly weaker even as oil prices have fallen and stocks have rallied.  What gives?! If PPI had come in much higher than expected, it would be easier to explain. But despite the 0.1 vs 0.5 reading for core monthly numbers, the PPI components that track with the more important PCE inflation metrics were actually a bit higher. In addition, the ill effects of fuel prices have already wreaked havoc on March inflation data. If we assume (and we should) that the full effects of higher fuel prices were not yet reflected in March prices at the time of the PPI data collection, bonds have to continue treading cautiously over the inflation outlook in coming months. Away from the data and war headlines, there are other considerations ranging from new estimates of the cost to fund the war and new warnings about forced selling of leveraged bond holdings if rates start rising again.

Being a diversified global bank, Goldman Sachs was “broadly seen favorably as a relatively safe haven type of credit,” said Tony Trzcinka, an investment grade portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management.

Sheer luck kept all but one hurricane from U.S. shores in 2025; one landfall in 2026 could devastate servicers.

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Weekend Selling Reverses After Another Round of De-Escalation Headlines

Another day, another chance to sort through a barrage of war-related headlines to see which ones mattered to the bond market. In today’s case, there were two distinct contenders. The first was apparently bogus. It referred to Iran considering abandoning its enrichment program and it actually caused a visible surge in volume and volatility. The second contender was a batch of headlines around 12:30ET that generally spoke to de-escalation potential and negotiation possibilities. All told, it was enough to reverse the overnight weakness seen after negotiations were allegedly abandoned.

Econ Data / Events

Existing home sales (Mar)

3.98M vs 4.06M f’cast, 4.09M prev

Market Movement Recap

09:23 AM Slightly weaker at the open, but mostly recovered now. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.325

01:26 PM Best levels. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1bp at 4.305

03:36 PM Holding near best levels with MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.297

The setback pared a weekly gain for US government bonds sparked by an April 8 ceasefire agreement, which caused oil prices to tumble from near multiyear highs.

The industry reported $275 million in losses from internet crimes last year, a 59% annual increase as losses nationwide surpassed $20 billion.

A Colorado couple filed suit after realizing they might owe as much as $279,000 on a home equity investment contract used to obtain $88,000 in 2018.