Mortgage Rates Bounce Back Up Near Recent Highs

Mortgage rates bounced back up today as the underlying bond market continued the selling trend seen on 3 out of 4 days so far this week. In the overnight hours, bond yields (which generally correlate with mortgage rates) moved higher in concert with rising oil prices.  That said, it would be a mistake to assume this is the only correlation in town. Oil prices continued to rise sharply during domestic hours, but bond yields remained flat–possibly benefiting from safe-haven demand following heavy losses in stocks. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is still under its recent highs, but after today’s jump, it’s fairly close. This is a victory of sorts, considering 10yr Treasury yields are clearly above their recent highs.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Wholesale, Best Ex, Verification Tools; Cybersecurity News and The Figure Incident; Capital Markets

Here in Park City, at the annual mortgage ski trip, some of the banter is social, and some is focused on business. On the business side of things, one topic is the nearly 1 million people impacted by hackers attacking Figure Technology Solutions, a blockchain-focused fintech lender. U.S. financial institutions are increasing cybersecurity vigilance amid the escalating war with Iran, with industry leaders warning that geopolitical conflict often brings a rise in digital threats. Todd Klessman, managing director for financial services cyber and technology at SIFMA, said, “The industry remains vigilant and ready to respond to cyber threats at all times, and especially when global cybersecurity risks are heightened.” While we’re on technology, the industry continues to wonder if there will be any limits on artificial intelligence (AI), and in an Insellerate webinar today at 10AM PT (1PM ET) they will discuss how top lenders are pre-positioning for refinances with AI and how to prepare for the next refi cycle without over hiring, overreacting, or missing the window. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Feewise, which turns mortgage compliance from bottleneck to business accelerator. Handle all the complexities involved with establishing TRID compliant fees and disclosures, achieve sign off, and deliver packages to your consumers for review or signature. Hear an interview with Feewise’s Rob Withers on enhancing tech stacks through a disclosure manufacturing solution that works at the speed of sales.)

10yr Breaking Above 4.10% After Overnight weakness

The bond market has already shown an indifference to this week’s econ data as a market mover (even though we expect that to change with tomorrow’s jobs report). This morning, however, the trend continues with stronger jobless claims and a big uptick in labor costs failing to inspire a reaction. But there has been movement. A steady wave of overnight selling pushed 10yr yields more than 3bps higher, easily breaking above the 4.10% technical level. Attempting to clearly connect that move to underlying motivation is an imperfect science, yet again. Oil prices and yields continue to correlate, but yields rose faster on a relative basis.

Mortgage Rates Move Back Down Despite Stronger Data

Economic data is one of the few consistent sources of motivation for interest rates in the mortgage world and beyond. In general, stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa. But in today’s case, that correlation didn’t pan out. The first of today’s two important economic reports was ADP Employment. It was just barely stronger than expected, so it’s no surprise that rates didn’t react. The second report (ISM Services) was quite a bit stronger, with the headline index hitting its best levels since 2022.  On a vast majority of other occasions, such a result would create some clear upward pressure for rates. We can only speculate as to the absence of a reaction this time. Perhaps it was the component that tracks inflation falling to the lowest level in nearly a year. Perhaps the market is more preoccupied with geopolitical considerations.  Regardless of the reasons, we’re not upset with the outcome. Rates moved about halfway back down to their recent lows after spending a few days at 2 week highs to start the week.

AOT Execution, CRM, Advisory, Virtual Economist, Non-QM Tools; Redwood’s First Non-QM Deal

Credit is certainly a topic as of late, both its process and its cost, but I received this note from an industry vet in the South. “Rob, I’m tired of lenders having ‘a come apart’ over FICO’s costs. No one talks about the fact that FICO held its prices steady for over 20 years, and the 1400 percent price increase came from a base of 69 cents. I don’t think FICO is running away from competition. Everyone is talking about ‘1B’ (one bureau), but the bigger issue is lender choice, where the lender or LO chooses which score they’re going to use. Not all the bureaus have the same data, and that opens the door to adverse selection, increased risk, and gaming, which all leads to increased costs to consumers.” While we’re talking credit, here in Florida at the Lenders One Summit, I spoke to a few people about what they were doing to try to save money, and a few of them mentioned FICO’s Direct License Program. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Feewise, which turns mortgage compliance from bottleneck to business accelerator. Handle all the complexities involved with establishing TRID compliant fees and disclosures, achieve sign off, and deliver packages to your consumers for review or signature. Hear an interview with Depth’s Lindsey Neal on modern relationship management, marketing, and PR strategies in the mortgage industry.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders “Spring is the season for fresh starts… even better to have a fresh start at prime minus 0.25% margin start rate! Take advantage of Symmetry’s Concurrent or Post-Close Piggyback Special and give your borrowers a smart solution to help them move forward with confidence. This offer is available for borrowers with a 760+ mid FICO, a minimum $300K draw at closing, and up to 80% max CLTV on primary residence Piggyback HELOC transactions. It features a 5-year draw term, with a 10-year draw term available for a +0.25% margin add-on. Your borrower’s home has been working hard for them, and now it’s time to help them reach their financial goals. Symmetry Lending.”