Just Another Day of Waiting

Bonds started stronger, retraced back to ‘unchanged’ following the manufacturing data, and proceeded to grind out moderate gains by the end of the day.  It was a reasonably strong result given the absence of bullish impetus for bonds, but not one that falls outside the range of yields established during last week’s volatile consolidation.  Fed Funds Futures notably rallied such that the 50bp rate cut is once again the leading candidate.  This is a product of trader ruminations and speculation rather than the data.  Between Timiraos’s article last week, and Dudley’s this morning, the market thinks it’s being given clues from insiders. 

Econ Data / Events

NY Fed Manufacturing

11.5 vs -3.9 f’cast, -4.7 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:52 AM moderately stronger overnight but losing some ground after NY Fed Manufacturing data of all things!  MBS unchanged and 10yr up 0.2bps at 3.658

12:31 PM Steady near stronger levels.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 3.632

02:42 PM No major changes from last update. Just a hair stronger.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3bps at 3.624