Holding Last Week’s Gains as Bonds Wait For Actionable Info

Monday was an anticlimactic session relative to the average day offered up last week.  Friday was especially important as the market’s anxiety over picking a size of the upcoming rate cut was on full display.  Fed Funds Futures didn’t move much today and that’s not a surprise considering the absence of actionable info.  There were no big ticket economic reports and no Fed speakers (they’re in the blackout period–a customary 12 calendar days with no public comment on rate policy leading up to Fed day).  It will be interesting to see if bonds will give much credit to economic data when we get CPI, PPI, and Jobless Claims on Wed/Thu.  If Friday was any clue, traders cared more about the Fed’s interpretation than the data itself.  Now that we cannot get any additional Fed comments, perhaps the data will get a vote.

Market Movement Recap

08:47 AM Modestly weaker overnight with bonds opening near the higher-yield end of Friday’s range.  10yr up 3.3bps at 3.741.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19).

01:08 PM Into stronger territory in PM hours.  MBS up 3 ticks.  10yr down 0.7bps at 3.702

03:28 PM Little changed into the close.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down almost 1bp at 3.7