Election Remains Dominant Source of Volatility

While the average day of the past few weeks has involved election odds pushing yields higher, today was quite the opposite.  There’s some debate as to whether it was polling or betting market odds that got the markets attention, but less debate about the nature of the ifs and thens at a broad level.  A modicum of lower certainty of a Trump victory was the catalyst.  It was a spark that didn’t need to burn for long in this environment characterized by excessive dry powder for volatility. Bonds thought better of the overnight rally by mid-day, but not enough to undo the gains.  Ultimately, yields ended right about where they were before Friday’s jobs report.  Exciting stuff for today, but boring in the bigger picture. 

Market Movement Recap

09:48 AM Much stronger overnight on shifting election odds.  MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 11.3bps at 4.281.

11:21 AM Losing ground since 10am.  Still much stronger on the day with MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 9.3bps at 4.301

01:33 PM New lows, still up 5 ticks (.16) on the day, but down a quarter point from highs.  10yr down 7.2bps at 4.322, but up from lows of 4.262

04:08 PM Off the lows from the last update.  MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 9.7bps at 4.297.