Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck

This morning’s economic data wasn’t immediately and obviously worthy of credit for the bond rally that followed, largely because the bond rally that followed was fairly small. Most of the day’s gains were in place beforehand.  The data (lower ISM/employment, job openings, and job quits) helped keep bonds near the stronger end of the day’s range, and thus, the stronger end of the 5 week range. There’s more data on Wednesday, but the biggest wild card may be the long-awaited tariff announcement in the afternoon.

Econ Data / Events

ISM Manufacturing

49.0 vs 49.5 f’cast, 50.3 prev
Prices 69.4 vs 65.0 f’cast
Employment 44.7 vs 47.6 prev

Job openings (lower = better for rates)

7.568m vs 7.630m f’cast

Job Quits (lower = better for rates)

3.195m vs 3.266m prev

Market Movement Recap

10:05 AM Stronger overnight and at best levels after 10am data.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5.1bps at 4.154

12:55 PM Sideways and slightly choppy all morning.  MBS still up 6 ticks  (.19) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.161

04:07 PM Still flat.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.165.