Fans of MASH know that Alan Alda turned 90 yesterday, and the remaining actors from the show joined him on the beach. When you reach a certain age you don’t care about the employment picture. Amazon laying off another 16,000, as announced this week, won’t help anyone’s “the economy is doing great” argument. As economist Elliot Eisenberg points out, “The most disturbing piece of information from last week’s income data is the confirmation of a complete lack of income growth over the past 12 months. During 11/24, real (after inflation) disposable (after taxes) per capita personal income was $52,324 and during 11/25 it was $52,557. Additionally, job growth over those 12 months was an anemic 857,000, or half a percent and declining, the lowest growth rate since 11/2010.” Certainly how economics impact lenders will be a topic on today’s The Big Picture at 3PM ET with guest Better.com CEO Vishal Garg for a wide-ranging conversation on the evolution of Better, what AI-powered mortgage looks like in practice, scaling to $100 billion in volume, the One Day Mortgage, blending technology with local origination, rebuilding culture and trust, and how leadership teams should be positioning for the next turn in the housing cycle. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with Sitewire’s Bryan Kester that includes an exploration of how permitting friction, underestimated rehab complexity, and weak pre-funding diligence (not land or labor) have become the true constraints on housing supply, and what smarter underwriting and process discipline look like as the market adapts.)

Sometimes being tuned into daily mortgage rate changes means coming across other news about financial markets. In today’s case, that could expose you to anything from the massive selling of certain stocks earlier in the day or the unprecedented trading levels in various commodities.  While the financial market buzz may be centered on silver and gold (and Microsoft, today), mortgage rates drifted quietly sideways. That’s no surprise considering rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds were roughly unchanged. This keeps the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.16%.  Apart from the week of Jan 12-16th, this is right in line with the lowest levels going back to early 2023.

Respondents to an exclusive NMN survey lay odds on lower rates boosting housing despite stagflation and recession risks. Here’s how the Fed’s view compares.

The pending agreement would resolve claims over a 2021 hack which affected 5.8 million customers of Lakeview, Community, and Pingora Loan Servicing.

Markets are sending mixed signals as the dollar slides, gold surges and Treasuries barely react, a disconnect that could spill into other assets, according to the CEO of IF Securities.

Rocket denied the allegations, saying the lawsuit is a retread of a case the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau filed that was quickly dismissed.

The activist investor is calling on Costar to exit its residential real estate businesses to concentrate on commercial.

On some occasions, a rate announcement from the Federal Reserve (even one that results in no change to the Fed Funds Rate) can cause a huge move in mortgage rates. Today was not one of those days, but in its defense, it was never that likely to be. In order for a Fed announcement to have a big impact, it has to surprise the market in some way. A rate cut (or absence thereof) is rarely a surprise these days. Instead, the market is more likely to receive new information via the Fed’s economic projections and the Chair’s press conference. Economic projections come out every other meeting and this wasn’t one of them. So any chance of excitement rested with Powell’s press conference. But Powell stayed perfectly on-script, striking a balance between hope and caution. Financial markets agreed. There was essentially no reaction to any of today’s Fed events in stocks or bonds. Flat bonds = flat mortgage rates all else equal. Today’s average rate was microscopically higher than yesterday’s, but that happened well before the Fed announcement and not for any specific reasons. 

No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates

As expected, the Fed held rates steady today. The statement was moderately more hawkish in that it acknowledged progress on the labor market front and overall economy. To the very small extent that the statement was hawkish, Powell’s press conference could be viewed as counterbalancing due to the non-threatening characterization of inflation and ongoing openness to additional easing if conditions justify it.  Bonds are heading out the door almost exactly in line with opening levels and there wasn’t much movement in between.

Market Movement Recap

09:24 AM Just barely stronger overnight and sideways so far this morning. MBS unchanged and 10yr effectively unchanged at 4.248.

12:38 PM MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.259

03:10 PM Limited reaction to Fed.  Gaining some ground as Powell presser continues.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr unchanged at 4.246

The Tulsa, Oklahoma-based bank expects the pace of loan growth to quicken this year, driven in part by its nine-month-old warehouse lending business.