Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report

Bonds were slightly weaker overnight and did just a bit more selling after the Jobless Claims data, but the losses were erased by the early afternoon.  Even then, they were never that big in the first place.  The muted volatility fit nicely in a week where the tone has been decidedly calm and the range has been reliably narrow. It’s also a perfect set up for the report that always reserves the right to rock the boat (Friday morning’s jobs report).  Expectations are for a fairly middle-of-the-road 200k print for nonfarm payrolls and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate.  

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims 

224k vs 215k f’cast, 213k prev

Continued Claims

1871k vs 1910k f’cast, 1896k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:46 AM Modestly weaker overnight and slight additional losses after solid jobless claims data.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.214.

02:13 PM Bouncing back a bit into the PM hours.  MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.183

03:29 PM Best levels of the day with MBS now unchanged and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.173