Bonds Snooze Through Fed Minutes

At first glance, and based on conventional wisdom, today’s most relevant calendar consideration for the bond market should have been the 2pm release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting.  In reality, however, it would have been hard for bonds to care any less.  This isn’t a surprise considering we already knew the Fed discussed cutting in July and has all but promised to cut in September.  The day’s biggest source of inspiration was the confusion surrounding the scheduled 10am release of the QCEW payroll data as discussed in the AM commentary.

Econ Data / Events

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QECW) for March 2024

Revised down 818k 
expectations ranged from 600k to 1.2m

Market Movement Recap

09:42 AM Flat overnight with small gains early.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09).  10yr down half a bp at 3.802

01:01 PM Plenty of volatility in a narrow range surrounding QCEW.  MBS now up an eighth of a point and 10yr down 2.4bps at 3.783.

02:07 PM Modest additional improvement after Fed Minutes.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16).  10yr down 4bps at 3.766.

03:58 PM Off the best levels, but MBS still up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr still down 1.4bps at 3.793