Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains

Stocks and bonds had a logical response to the threat of global nuclear war overnight, but even at the height of that trade, the gains weren’t too big for Treasuries/MBS.  Starting at 9am ET, bonds began giving back the overnight gains and that process continued in a slow and steady way throughout the session.  MBS ultimately hit unchanged levels and 10yr yields rose roughly 6bps from the lows.  The stock market made an even bigger round trip, ultimately ending higher for the 2nd day in a row.

Econ Data / Events

Housing Starts

1.311m vs 1.330m f’cast, 1.354m prev

Building Permits

1.416m vs 1.430m f’cast, 1.425m prev

Market Movement Recap

09:31 AM moderately stronger overnight on Ukraine escalation.  MBS up less than an eighth.  10yr down 4.2bps at 4.374

12:56 PM weakest levels of the day.  MBS up 2 ticks (0.06) and 10yr down 3.2bps at 4.385

02:56 PM Little changed since previous update.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 4.3bps at 4.374

03:41 PM 10yr yields are still 3bps lower on the day at 4.387.  MBS now up only 1 tick (.03).