Another Flat Day, This Time With Data

While it would be an overstatement to say that bonds have fully outgrown the phase of volatility that’s dominated October and early November, it’s not unfair to say that volatility has been subsiding rather markedly–especially if we focus on day over day closing levels.  8 out of the past 8 trading sessions have seen 10yr yields end the day in a 4.40 to 4.46 range–pretty narrow, even for a more boring economic and political backdrop. Today’s neutrality had at least something to do with the mixed messages in the econ data, but bonds are definitely waiting for the heavy hitting report of early December before making bigger bets.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

213k vs 220k f’cast, 219k prev

Continued Claims

1908k vs 1870k f’cast, 1872k prev

Philly Fed Index

-5.5 vs 8.0 f’cast 10.3 prev

Existing Home Sales

3.96m vs 3.93m f’cast, 3.83m prev

Market Movement Recap

10:24 AM Modestly stronger overnight and holding gains after data.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.383

11:04 AM Off best levels now.  MBS up only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr now up 0.4bps at 4.409

03:27 PM MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.429