Bonds Get Pre-Fed Jitters After a Mostly Flat Day

Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory, mostly following an overnight sell-off in Europe.  Trading levels had recovered enough by 10am that we could consider the overall trend to be “mostly flat.”  In fact, MBS came fairly close to breaking even just before 2pm, but then things went sideways.  Actually, “sideways” is the wrong word.  Prices dropped somewhat abruptly and Treasury yields spiked to new super-long-term highs.  Without any clear scapegoats, we’re forced to rely on explanations filed under the category of pre-Fed jitters.  One would think traders already knew how jittery they were before 2pm today, but sometimes you don’t know until you see how jittery everyone else is.

Econ Data / Events

Housing Starts

1.283m vs 1.44m f’cast

Building Permits

1.543m vs 1.443m f’cast

Market Movement Recap

09:06 AM Selling momentum building.  10yr up 6bps at 4.361. MBS down almost an eighth.

10:44 AM Nice recovery but still weaker on the day.  10yr up 2.8bps at 4.329.  MBS down an eighth. 

01:34 PM Best levels of the day for MBS, down only 2 ticks.  10yr up 3.2bps at 4.333

02:46 PM Quickly down 7 ticks in MBS.  10yr up 5.8bps at 4.359.