Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day

On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that’s going to happen ends up happening in the morning, thus leaving the rest of the day to drift almost perfectly sideways. Thursday was one of those days. Overseas markets dogpiled on Wednesday afternoon’s tariff reaction, sending stocks ripping lower and bond yields following. By the time US markets began active trading, most of the gains were in for bonds.  MBS, specifically, barely budged from 11:40am through the close.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

219k vs 225k f’cast, 225k prev

Continued Claims

1.903m vs 1.860m f’cast, 1.847m prev

ISM Services

50.8 vs 53.0 f’cast, 53.5 prev

ISM Employment

46.2 vs 53.9 prev

ISM Prices

60.9 vs 62.6 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:35 AM Stronger overnight as tariff rally extends.  MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 8bps at 4.044

01:01 PM Sideways near highs.  MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 01yr down 7.5bps at 4.048

04:17 PM Still sideways!  MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 8.3bps at 4.041