Solid Showing In Spite of Data and Uncertainty

The relevance of economic data increased this morning with the release of Q4 GDP and Jobless Claims.  Neither were good for rates although neither were especially bad. Right after the data, the overnight rally gave way to moderate selling pressure and, ultimately, a return to unchanged levels for MBS in the 11am hour. After that, volatility was minimal despite lingering uncertainty on the tariff implementation that was originally slated for February 1st. 

Econ Data / Events

GDP Q4

2.3 vs 2.6 f’cast, 3.1 prev

PCE prices

2.5 vs 2.5 f’cast

Jobless Claims

207k vs 220k f’cast, 223k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:41 AM Slightly weaker after data but still in positive territory.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.513

01:27 PM Steady weakness after data, but flat since 11am.  MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.522

04:34 PM Some volatility surrounding fabricated headlines on Trump tariffs. MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.523