Much Calmer, But Risks Remain

Bonds had a significantly calmer day in terms of day-over-day change.  In fact, by the 3pm close, both MBS and Treasuries were close enough to unchanged.  There was a bit of intraday volatility that saw bonds attempt to stage a little rally only to give it all up by the noon hour–the latest reminder that we’re dealing with some asymmetric risks over the next few weeks.  

Econ Data / Events

Housing Starts

1.354m vs 1.350m f’cast, 1.356m prev

Building Permits

1.428m vs 1.46m f’cast, 1.47m prev

Market Movement Recap

09:14 AM Initially weaker overnight, but back into positive territory by the open.  10yr down 2.2bps at 4.18 and 5.5 UMBS up 3 ticks (.09).

11:22 AM Back to weakest levels.  MBS unchanged and 10yr nearly unchanged at 4.199.

01:07 PM Worst levels just after noon, but bouncing back a bit now.  MBS up 1 tick (.03).  10yr unchanged at 4.202.

03:44 PM Drifting sideways since last update.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.198