No Major Reaction to Data, But Data Remains Relevant

As with most “first weeks of the month,” this one has potentially significant economic data every single morning.  With ISM Manufacturing kicking things off, today was no exception, but it didn’t end up having a big impact.  Considering the near perfect alignment with expectations, that’s not much of a surprise.  The flood of “new month” trading positions ended up being a much bigger market mover (well before the data).  Weakness in the stock market also helped drive some safe haven buying in Treasuries. 

Econ Data / Events

S&P Manufacturing PMI

47.9 vs 48.0 f’cast

ISM Manufacturing PMI

47.2 vs 47.5 f’cast

ISM Prices

54.0 vs 52.5 f’cast

Market Movement Recap

09:40 AM New month trading = gains for bonds.  10yr down 5.2bps at 3.852.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19).

12:48 PM still stronger but off best levels.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.7bps at 3.857

02:18 PM Flat at the same levels as the last update.  10yr down 5.3bps at 3.851