Rates Taking an Assumptive Lead-Off Ahead of Jobs Report?

Suddenly, something has changed in the bond market.  After a very sideways week last week and a reasonably sideways start to the present week, Wednesday and Thursday have seen the best 2 day gain (considering size of the move and its location in a trend) since December 2023.  Wed was more notable than Thu in that regard because the rally was bigger and it was based primarily on an equivocal Powell press conference.  Thursday’s data argued in favor of a rally, but investors seemed uncommonly willing to chase yields lower relative to the data.  To some extent, the market could be positioning for Friday’s jobs report to strike a similar cord.  

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

249k vs 236k f’cast, 235k prev

ISM Manufacturing

46.8 vs 48.8 f’cast, 48.5 prev

ISM Prices

52.9 vs 51.8 f’cast, 52.1 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:41 AM stronger after claims.  MBS are back to unchanged 10yr yields are also unchanged at 4.031 after starting as high as 4.066.

11:50 AM Additional gains after ISM data, but off the best levels now.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.3bps at 3.988.

02:37 PM Near afternoon lows but MBS are still up an eighth.  10yr down 4.6bps at 3.985.

04:35 PM Sideways all afternoon, despite a bit of volatility.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 5.2bps at 3.979