Back in The Range Without Needing Too Much Convincing

Unlike yesterday, the overnight session sent bonds into domestic hours at perfectly unchanged levels.  Almost all of the movement happened after the 8:30am econ data.  Connecting the data to the movement takes a bit of creativity and quite a bit of sorting.  We can immediately throw out the Q1 GDP data as being too stale to be relevant at this point.  That leaves Durable Goods (negative revision and big miss for nondefense, ex-air) and Continuing Jobless Claims as leading contenders.  Both may have contributed, but it’s hard to say which contributed more.  Either way, bonds rallied into the 10am hour and went sideways from there.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

233k vs 236k f’cast, 239k prev

Continued Claims

1839k vs 1820k f’cast, 1821k prev

Durable Goods

0.1 vs -0.1 f’cast
last month revised down to 0.2 from 0.7

Core Durables

-0.6 vs 0.1 f’cast, 0.3 prev

Final Core PCE Prices Q1 (ancient history)

3.7 vs 3.6 f’cast

Final GDP

1.4 vs 1.4 f’cast/prev

Corp Profits

-2.7 vs -1.7 f’cast

Market Movement Recap

08:43 AM Slightly stronger after AM data.  10yr down 3bps at 4.299.  MBS up an eighth.

01:05 PM Little changed after the 7yr auction.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.279

04:16 PM MBS near strongest levels, up 7 ticks (.22).  10yr yields trading just under 4.29.